{"sources":[{"url":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/README.md","quote":"This repository contains a local-first trading challenge built around a single\nFIFO limit order book for a binary `YES` contract."},{"url":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/docs/orderbook_prediction_market_challenge.md","quote":"The simulator calls:\n\n```python\nactions = strategy.on_step(state)\n```"},{"url":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/docs/orderbook_prediction_market_challenge.md","quote":"The arbitrageur knows `p_t` and sends marketable flow only."},{"url":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/docs/orderbook_prediction_market_challenge.md","quote":"Retail flow is exogenous to the latent state aside from sell-side\ncash-to-quantity conversion."},{"url":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/docs/orderbook_prediction_market_challenge.md","quote":"For each passive participant fill:\n\n- participant buys `q` at price `x`: `edge = q * (p_t - x)`\n- participant sells `q` at price `x`: `edge = q * (x - p_t)`"},{"url":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/config.py","quote":"class ParameterVariance:\n    \"\"\"Recommended simulation-randomization bands.\"\"\""},{"url":"https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/04e37cd4e1a420b91cd7a012f416e6ebf1002c5c56867981741a3a77c72b9c48","quote":"\"scores_sha256\":\"bde43171c0191751c603d429d3c46ce55bae11086c2826bbb386c9e7ad58c470\""}]}