{"blocked":null,"summary":"No fork file beats RS2. 146 afterSwap .sol files (after dedupe, upstream exclusion, 50-per-fork cap) from 4 forks; 145 compiled and validated, 1 failed (stack too deep). Best 32-seed d32 = -2.86 (shl0k28 Strategy_ghost_arbclass.sol); best on 256 seeds = shl0k28 Strategy.sol at -2.165 (se 0.079) vs RS2. Nothing to forward for the top-10 goal.","per_fork":{"VictorQian03/amm-challenge":"Branches main, fresh-harness, codex/harden-hill-climb-contracts. 267 distinct afterSwap files differing from upstream (mostly hill-climb snapshots and scratch probes under artifacts/ on fresh-harness); kept 50 most recently committed (many share one commit time, so the cut among ties follows git ls-tree order). All 50 validated; 48 of 50 hit OutOfGas in afterSwap on the 32 seeds (thousands of OOG calls each), best d32 -55.2. None usable.","shl0k28/amm-challenge":"Branch main only. 79 distinct afterSwap files at repo root; kept 50 most recent. 49 validated (Strategy_carry_premium.sol fails compile: YulException stack too deep). 0 OOG. Best family BandShield_ghost, d32 between -2.86 and -5.13; all lose to RS2.","CleanPegasus/amm-challenge":"Branches main and claude/review-codebase-Udo2U. 45 distinct afterSwap files (spike-decay / bubble-sort / proportional-spike / vol-regime strategies), all valid, 0 OOG, best d32 -99.97 (losses up to ~-193).","crypto-yuvi/amm-challenge":"6 branches (main, cleanup-pre-public, codex/security-hardening-upstream, normalizer-30bps, rename-im-to-edge, rescale-gbm-dt). Only 1 afterSwap file differing from upstream: contracts/src/FeeStrategy1.sol (main), valid, 0 OOG, d32 -24.17."},"rs2":{"sha256":"f24b6ca198b744c380842c3a17964a6dc21f311bb04984b26733afa3fee8eaf2","mean_edge_901000_901255":"533.7351592392916","gas_901000_901255":{"max_ok":202386,"oog":0}},"files":[{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/hill_climb/may09-screen490-floor-0001/snapshots/3b7f1782ca74816d2d33d818eb32377ab6d09af3e06d2ed3863f320b11d2583f.sol","commit":"80fd97db0a6420d0b1562b986bb7efd3067776f8","sha256":"3b7f1782ca74816d2d33d818eb32377ab6d09af3e06d2ed3863f320b11d2583f","valid":true,"d32":"-55.2375","oog":13005},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/hill_climb/may09-screen490-floor-0001/snapshots/3b0faa52a7c2ec188fac4a44c34895e52d78fefb2c5c0008733822f16b52d9ad.sol","commit":"87539f995fb5c76adfdd230ded2bbf5931e0ec9f","sha256":"3b0faa52a7c2ec188fac4a44c34895e52d78fefb2c5c0008733822f16b52d9ad","valid":true,"d32":"-61.6024","oog":19572},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/hill_climb/may09-screen490-floor-0001/snapshots/5b991499242d9fe200416a7c3f7c541c97fd9d65eb3502b0c87eab7588a31f83.sol","commit":"87539f995fb5c76adfdd230ded2bbf5931e0ec9f","sha256":"5b991499242d9fe200416a7c3f7c541c97fd9d65eb3502b0c87eab7588a31f83","valid":true,"d32":"-56.9878","oog":13005},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/hill_climb/may09-screen490-floor-0001/snapshots/8734ce7ce521f9b8e61e3ed1bda07c15ee29bf71a6dc771bc7fe66bbf876468a.sol","commit":"87539f995fb5c76adfdd230ded2bbf5931e0ec9f","sha256":"8734ce7ce521f9b8e61e3ed1bda07c15ee29bf71a6dc771bc7fe66bbf876468a","valid":true,"d32":"-56.2412","oog":13005},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/hill_climb/may09-screen490-floor-0001/snapshots/d2a27faf026b4baeef2ee4cffdd22071f4766180550fa4c51b708b6f02fed025.sol","commit":"87539f995fb5c76adfdd230ded2bbf5931e0ec9f","sha256":"d2a27faf026b4baeef2ee4cffdd22071f4766180550fa4c51b708b6f02fed025","valid":true,"d32":"-61.8909","oog":19572},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/hill_climb/may09-screen490-qtrs-0001/snapshots/5526ecf76e970b03c26434326cf30d5a01070e1146390cf0879866397c9eaa57.sol","commit":"b7c7e224dcec7e7a2189cb936a6f2cd9489f8a7c","sha256":"5526ecf76e970b03c26434326cf30d5a01070e1146390cf0879866397c9eaa57","valid":true,"d32":"-61.0986","oog":15087},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/hill_climb/may09-screen490-qtrs-0001/snapshots/9e2714ac3bf835ae434debe9f8848c94559db3c4ba6f0d88bae0c7712800a940.sol","commit":"b7c7e224dcec7e7a2189cb936a6f2cd9489f8a7c","sha256":"9e2714ac3bf835ae434debe9f8848c94559db3c4ba6f0d88bae0c7712800a940","valid":true,"d32":"-61.129","oog":15087},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/hill_climb/may09-screen490-qtrs-0001/snapshots/c900f818783ecec7d529d1f3b211abb64ffbaa60a39dd4e905fa0eaf1408ead0.sol","commit":"b7c7e224dcec7e7a2189cb936a6f2cd9489f8a7c","sha256":"c900f818783ecec7d529d1f3b211abb64ffbaa60a39dd4e905fa0eaf1408ead0","valid":true,"d32":"-61.1064","oog":15087},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/scratch_probes/may08-screen490-0001/round1/barrier_certificate_risk_floor/barrier_certificate_risk_floor.sol","commit":"b7c7e224dcec7e7a2189cb936a6f2cd9489f8a7c","sha256":"17e81ea4f9617e60aa8a3735b5edeca3f11acf32d54a7c72d2f2f1735243d9f8","valid":true,"d32":"-85.2603","oog":61265},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/scratch_probes/may08-screen490-0001/round1/elastic_energy_reservoir/elastic_energy_reservoir.sol","commit":"b7c7e224dcec7e7a2189cb936a6f2cd9489f8a7c","sha256":"e9e3c7a28c96526bd84cac364360079263e2e4d958d4e34cfa4d3ef974c884fe","valid":true,"d32":"-66.7172","oog":27390},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/scratch_probes/may08-screen490-0001/round1/max_plus_risk_assembler/max_plus_risk_assembler.sol","commit":"b7c7e224dcec7e7a2189cb936a6f2cd9489f8a7c","sha256":"5b4c3c833afa43a013f67cf79c57b499b9694391417b0d5de4cda9a941e050cf","valid":true,"d32":"-66.7858","oog":27390},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/scratch_probes/may08-screen490-0001/round1/phase_plane_curl_witness/phase_plane_curl_witness.sol","commit":"b7c7e224dcec7e7a2189cb936a6f2cd9489f8a7c","sha256":"f4567011877716264fd48d17500582b2a3c075c4082605cdf58353841b73a744","valid":true,"d32":"-89.9389","oog":72166},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/scratch_probes/may08-screen490-0001/round1/syndrome_protected_triplet_code/syndrome_protected_triplet_code.sol","commit":"b7c7e224dcec7e7a2189cb936a6f2cd9489f8a7c","sha256":"88f4035ff2006438985865564f8c627a47a10efb263accda0904aa67158c94b0","valid":true,"d32":"-71.6135","oog":34054},{"fork":"VictorQian03/amm-challenge","branch":"fresh-harness","path":"artifacts/scratch_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It gives up less to arbitrage (+0.98) but loses more retail edge (-3.38) than RS2."},{"sha256":"967d7dec2264eee29232d908c279ee32e5f0e7db11ae2cd825c1aebdd0aaf503","url":"https://github.com/shl0k28/amm-challenge/blob/9c4be0b64479ebb41c5cb5dd7082007130a155a2/Strategy_ghost_quick.sol","paired":{"n":256,"mean_diff":"-4.112870178580195","se":"0.08963579052941424","worst":[{"seed":901033,"d":"-11.011060300783015"},{"seed":901048,"d":"-8.447404135516877"},{"seed":901142,"d":"-7.590345169867533"},{"seed":901034,"d":"-7.255132368309319"},{"seed":901005,"d":"-6.992237680258768"}]},"retail_edge_delta":{"mean":"-4.648908599899768","se":"0.13306570875170054"},"arb_edge_delta":{"mean":"0.5360384213195692","se":"0.07200845668516859"},"gas":{"max_ok":150822,"oog":0},"mechanism":"BandShield_ghost_quick: the same family but with a single fair-price alpha (no arb/retail classification of the first trade) and sigma updated from every first-in-step print. This is a simplification, not a new mechanism relative to RS2. It loses retail edge (-4.65) and gains +0.54 on arbitrage versus RS2."}],"code":{"source":"// SPDX-License-Identifier: MIT\npragma solidity ^0.8.24;\n\nimport {AMMStrategyBase} from \"./AMMStrategyBase.sol\";\nimport {TradeInfo} from \"./IAMMStrategy.sol\";\n\ncontract Strategy is AMMStrategyBase {\n    // --- decay / update constants ---\n    uint256 constant ELAPSED_CAP = 8;\n    uint256 constant SIGNAL_THRESHOLD = WAD / 700; // ~20 bps of reserve\n    uint256 constant DIR_DECAY = 850000000000000000; // 0.80\n    uint256 constant ACT_DECAY = 700000000000000000; // 0.70\n    uint256 constant SIZE_DECAY = 600000000000000000; // 0.70\n    uint256 constant TOX_DECAY = 900000000000000000; // 0.80\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_DECAY = 650000000000000000; // 0.65\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_DECAY = 994000000000000000; // 0.99\n    uint256 constant SIZE_BLEND_DECAY = 800000000000000000; // 0.65\n    uint256 constant TOX_BLEND_DECAY = 100000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant ACT_BLEND_DECAY = 993000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_ARB = 340000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL = 120000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_SHOCK_GATE = 30000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant DIR_IMPACT_MULT = 1;\n    uint256 constant ARB_MAX_RATIO = WAD / 360;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_RETAIL_DECAY = 999000000000000000;\n\n    // --- state caps ---\n    uint256 constant RET_CAP = WAD / 10; // 10%\n    uint256 constant TOX_CAP = WAD / 5; // 20%\n    uint256 constant TRADE_RATIO_CAP = WAD / 5; // 20%\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_CAP = 5 * WAD; // max 5 trades/step estimate\n    uint256 constant STEP_COUNT_CAP = 64; // guardrail\n\n    // --- fee model constants ---\n    uint256 constant BASE_FEE = 3 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_COEF = 200000000000000000; // 0.20\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_COEF = 12 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant FLOW_SIZE_COEF = 5600 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TOX_COEF = 200 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TOX_QUAD_COEF = 20000 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant ACT_COEF = 42000 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant DIR_COEF = 90 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant DIR_TOX_COEF = 20 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant STALE_DIR_COEF = 6900 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_KNEE = 700 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE = 900000000000000000; // 0.90\n\n    // slots[0] = bid fee\n    // slots[1] = ask fee\n    // slots[2] = last timestamp\n    // slots[3] = dirState (centered at WAD, [0, 2*WAD])\n    // slots[4] = actEma\n    // slots[5] = pHat\n    // slots[6] = sigmaHat\n    // slots[7] = lambdaHat\n    // slots[8] = sizeHat\n    // slots[9] = toxEma\n    // slots[10] = stepTradeCount (raw integer)\n\n    function afterInitialize(uint256 initialX, uint256 initialY) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n        slots[0] = BASE_FEE;\n        slots[1] = BASE_FEE;\n        slots[2] = 0;\n        slots[3] = WAD; // neutral direction\n        slots[4] = 0;\n        slots[5] = initialX > 0 ? wdiv(initialY, initialX) : 100 * WAD;\n        slots[6] = 950000000000000; // 0.095% initial sigma guess\n        slots[7] = 800000000000000000; // 0.8 initial arrival-rate guess\n        slots[8] = 2000000000000000; // 0.2% reserve-size ratio guess\n        slots[9] = 0;\n        slots[10] = 0;\n        return (BASE_FEE, BASE_FEE);\n    }\n\n    function afterSwap(TradeInfo calldata trade) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n        uint256 prevBidFee = slots[0];\n        uint256 prevAskFee = slots[1];\n        uint256 lastTs = slots[2];\n        uint256 dirState = slots[3];\n        uint256 actEma = slots[4];\n        uint256 pHat = slots[5];\n        uint256 sigmaHat = slots[6];\n        uint256 lambdaHat = slots[7];\n        uint256 sizeHat = slots[8];\n        uint256 toxEma = slots[9];\n        uint256 stepTradeCount = slots[10];\n\n        bool isNewStep = trade.timestamp > lastTs;\n        if (isNewStep) {\n            uint256 elapsedRaw = trade.timestamp - lastTs;\n            uint256 elapsed = elapsedRaw > ELAPSED_CAP ? ELAPSED_CAP : elapsedRaw;\n\n            // Decay multi-step memory.\n            dirState = _decayCentered(dirState, DIR_DECAY, elapsed);\n            actEma = wmul(actEma, _powWad(ACT_DECAY, elapsed));\n            sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, _powWad(SIZE_DECAY, elapsed));\n            toxEma = wmul(toxEma, _powWad(TOX_DECAY, elapsed));\n\n            // Update arrival-rate estimate using how many fills we saw in the prior active step.\n            if (stepTradeCount > 0 && elapsedRaw > 0) {\n                uint256 lambdaInst = (stepTradeCount * WAD) / elapsedRaw;\n                if (lambdaInst > LAMBDA_CAP) lambdaInst = LAMBDA_CAP;\n                lambdaHat = wmul(lambdaHat, LAMBDA_DECAY) + wmul(lambdaInst, WAD - LAMBDA_DECAY);\n            }\n\n            stepTradeCount = 0;\n        }\n\n        bool firstInStep = stepTradeCount == 0;\n\n        uint256 spot = trade.reserveX > 0 ? wdiv(trade.reserveY, trade.reserveX) : pHat;\n        if (pHat == 0) pHat = spot;\n\n        uint256 feeUsed = trade.isBuy ? prevBidFee : prevAskFee;\n        uint256 gamma = feeUsed < WAD ? WAD - feeUsed : 0;\n        uint256 pImplied;\n        if (gamma == 0) {\n            pImplied = spot;\n        } else {\n            pImplied = trade.isBuy ? wmul(spot, gamma) : wdiv(spot, gamma);\n        }\n\n        uint256 tradeRatio = trade.reserveY > 0 ? wdiv(trade.amountY, trade.reserveY) : 0;\n        if (tradeRatio > TRADE_RATIO_CAP) tradeRatio = TRADE_RATIO_CAP;\n        bool likelyArb = firstInStep && tradeRatio <= ARB_MAX_RATIO;\n\n        if (firstInStep) {\n            uint256 ret = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(pImplied, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n            if (likelyArb) {\n                if (ret <= PHAT_SHOCK_GATE) {\n                    pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - PHAT_ALPHA_ARB) + wmul(pImplied, PHAT_ALPHA_ARB);\n                }\n                if (ret > RET_CAP) ret = RET_CAP;\n                sigmaHat = wmul(sigmaHat, SIGMA_DECAY) + wmul(ret, WAD - SIGMA_DECAY);\n            } else {\n                if (ret <= PHAT_SHOCK_GATE) {\n                    pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL) + wmul(pImplied, PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL);\n                }\n                sigmaHat = wmul(sigmaHat, SIGMA_RETAIL_DECAY);\n            }\n        }\n\n        if (tradeRatio > SIGNAL_THRESHOLD) {\n            uint256 push = tradeRatio * DIR_IMPACT_MULT;\n            if (push > WAD / 4) push = WAD / 4;\n\n            // isBuy=true => AMM buys X => sell pressure.\n            if (trade.isBuy) {\n                dirState = dirState + push;\n                if (dirState > 2 * WAD) dirState = 2 * WAD;\n            } else {\n                dirState = dirState > push ? dirState - push : 0;\n            }\n\n            actEma = wmul(actEma, ACT_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - ACT_BLEND_DECAY);\n\n            sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, SIZE_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - SIZE_BLEND_DECAY);\n            if (sizeHat > WAD) sizeHat = WAD;\n        }\n\n        uint256 tox = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(spot, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n        if (tox > TOX_CAP) tox = TOX_CAP;\n        toxEma = wmul(toxEma, TOX_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tox, WAD - TOX_BLEND_DECAY);\n        uint256 toxSignal = toxEma;\n\n        uint256 flowSize = wmul(lambdaHat, sizeHat);\n        uint256 fBase = BASE_FEE + wmul(SIGMA_COEF, sigmaHat) + wmul(LAMBDA_COEF, lambdaHat) + wmul(FLOW_SIZE_COEF, flowSize);\n        uint256 fMid = fBase + wmul(TOX_COEF, toxSignal) + wmul(TOX_QUAD_COEF, wmul(toxSignal, toxSignal)) + wmul(ACT_COEF, actEma);\n\n        uint256 dirDev;\n        bool sellPressure;\n        if (dirState >= WAD) {\n            dirDev = dirState - WAD;\n            sellPressure = true;\n        } else {\n            dirDev = WAD - dirState;\n            sellPressure = false;\n        }\n\n        uint256 skew = wmul(DIR_COEF, dirDev) + wmul(DIR_TOX_COEF, wmul(dirDev, toxSignal));\n\n        uint256 bidFee;\n        uint256 askFee;\n        if (sellPressure) {\n            bidFee = fMid + skew;\n            askFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n        } else {\n            askFee = fMid + skew;\n            bidFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n        }\n\n        // Additional directional protection using stale-price sign.\n        if (STALE_DIR_COEF > 0) {\n            uint256 staleShift = wmul(STALE_DIR_COEF, toxSignal);\n            if (spot >= pHat) {\n                bidFee = bidFee + staleShift;\n                askFee = askFee > staleShift ? askFee - staleShift : 0;\n            } else {\n                askFee = askFee + staleShift;\n                bidFee = bidFee > staleShift ? bidFee - staleShift : 0;\n            }\n        }\n\n        bidFee = clampFee(_compressTail(bidFee));\n        askFee = clampFee(_compressTail(askFee));\n\n        stepTradeCount = stepTradeCount + 1;\n        if (stepTradeCount > STEP_COUNT_CAP) stepTradeCount = STEP_COUNT_CAP;\n\n        slots[0] = bidFee;\n        slots[1] = askFee;\n        slots[2] = trade.timestamp;\n        slots[3] = dirState;\n        slots[4] = actEma;\n        slots[5] = pHat;\n        slots[6] = sigmaHat;\n        slots[7] = lambdaHat;\n        slots[8] = sizeHat;\n        slots[9] = toxEma;\n        slots[10] = stepTradeCount;\n\n        return (bidFee, askFee);\n    }\n\n    function _compressTail(uint256 fee) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n        if (fee <= TAIL_KNEE) return fee;\n        return TAIL_KNEE + wmul(fee - TAIL_KNEE, TAIL_SLOPE);\n    }\n\n    function _powWad(uint256 factor, uint256 exp) internal pure returns (uint256 result) {\n        result = WAD;\n        while (exp > 0) {\n            if ((exp & 1) == 1) result = wmul(result, factor);\n            factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n            exp >>= 1;\n        }\n    }\n\n    function _decayCentered(uint256 centered, uint256 decayFactor, uint256 elapsed) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n        uint256 mul = _powWad(decayFactor, elapsed);\n        if (centered >= WAD) {\n            return WAD + wmul(centered - WAD, mul);\n        }\n        uint256 below = wmul(WAD - centered, mul);\n        return below < WAD ? WAD - below : 0;\n    }\n\n    function getName() external pure override returns (string memory) {\n        return \"BandShield_ghost\";\n    }\n}\n","sha256":"3896e5cf013459844d9bd294484ec0d01fb2a27c3cc7d504a556e3a01cb7bf33","url":"https://github.com/shl0k28/amm-challenge/blob/9c4be0b64479ebb41c5cb5dd7082007130a155a2/Strategy.sol","author":"Shlok (GitHub shl0k28), commit 9c4be0b64479ebb41c5cb5dd7082007130a155a2 \"523.57\", 2026-02-10","licence":"No LICENSE file in the fork (nor in upstream benedictbrady/amm-challenge at 6b6921f8); the file itself carries \"SPDX-License-Identifier: MIT\"."},"notes":["Harness: harness_source of artifact 33f54e81... run unchanged (run_batch(X, VanillaStrategy, configs, 8), chunks of 20 seeds, gas_stats per arm). Calibration: CH Strategy.sol on seeds 0..999 gave mean edge 525.5258821780834, matching the brief exactly.","Screen seeds 900000..900031 (32), top-3 seeds 901000..901255 (256). No seed >= 5000000 used.","Top 3 picked by d32: Strategy_ghost_arbclass (-2.856), Strategy.sol (-3.062), Strategy_ghost_quick (-4.422), all shl0k28/main. On 256 seeds Strategy.sol was best (-2.165).","file oog = total OutOfGas calls (all callbacks, both arms) on the 32 seeds; null d32/oog = did not compile. gas.max_ok in top3 = max successful afterSwap gas of the submission on 901000..901255.","Upstream exclusion compared sha256 against every .sol in upstream at 6b6921f8 and upstream main HEAD. Fork files were only read, copied into contracts/src for amm-match validate, and simulated; no fork script was run.","Pattern: all 3 top files gain on arb edge vs RS2 (+0.39..+0.98) but lose more on retail edge (-2.55..-4.65); RS2 contains every component of the BandShield_ghost family, which looks like an ancestor of RS2-style rules."]}