{"key":"cancel-s4-off-4","flip":"cancel-s4-off","t_sha256":"9fba1eb5659d5b0ac9b7273a968a520ef9a95551c697be22020993005af70192","candidate_sha256":"f20f0f8fc663b98449afc3dbd486360836ad2674da69b6159b9997d2c604eed3","seeds":{"start":1001500,"end":1001999},"n":500,"complete":true,"blocked":null,"failures":[],"overall":{"n":500,"sum_d":39.907215,"sum_d2":278.559031,"mean_diff":0.079814,"se":0.033222},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":140,"sum_d":0.0,"sum_d2":0.0,"mean_diff":0.0,"se":0.0},"2":{"n":133,"sum_d":0.0,"sum_d2":0.0,"mean_diff":0.0,"se":0.0},"3":{"n":128,"sum_d":0.0,"sum_d2":0.0,"mean_diff":0.0,"se":0.0},"4":{"n":99,"sum_d":39.907215,"sum_d2":278.559031,"mean_diff":0.403103,"se":0.164479}},"worst":[[1001555,4,-3.656567],[1001610,4,-2.547868],[1001732,4,-1.886036],[1001844,4,-1.811429],[1001637,4,-1.800147]],"best":[[1001624,4,9.747114],[1001831,4,6.663616],[1001879,4,5.377581],[1001584,4,3.901687],[1001991,4,2.936069]],"per_seed":[[1001500,4,0.869179],[1001501,3,0.0],[1001502,4,2.042022],[1001503,4,-0.480157],[1001504,1,0.0],[1001505,4,-0.147744],[1001506,3,0.0],[1001507,2,0.0],[1001508,1,0.0],[1001509,3,0.0],[1001510,4,1.637046],[1001511,3,0.0],[1001512,2,0.0],[1001513,1,0.0],[1001514,1,0.0],[1001515,1,0.0],[1001516,4,1.867787],[1001517,2,0.0],[1001518,2,0.0],[1001519,2,0.0],[1001520,1,0.0],[1001521,1,0.0],[1001522,4,1.249563],[1001523,4,-0.124553],[1001524,1,0.0],[1001525,1,0.0],[1001526,2,0.0],[1001527,1,0.0],[1001528,3,0.0],[1001529,3,0.0],[1001530,2,0.0],[1001531,1,0.0],[1001532,1,0.0],[1001533,3,0.0],[1001534,4,-0.102455],[1001535,4,0.225853],[1001536,1,0.0],[1001537,3,0.0],[1001538,2,0.0],[1001539,2,0.0],[1001540,1,0.0],[1001541,2,0.0],[1001542,4,-0.061086],[1001543,3,0.0],[1001544,4,-0.101662],[1001545,3,0.0],[1001546,3,0.0],[1001547,1,0.0],[1001548,1,0.0],[1001549,1,0.0],[1001550,1,0.0],[1001551,1,0.0],[1001552,1,0.0],[1001553,2,0.0],[1001554,3,0.0],[1001555,4,-3.656567],[1001556,3,0.0],[1001557,3,0.0],[1001558,2,0.0],[1001559,2,0.0],[1001560,1,0.0],[1001561,3,0.0],[1001562,1,0.0],[1001563,3,0.0],[1001564,3,0.0],[1001565,4,0.089694],[1001566,3,0.0],[1001567,2,0.0],[1001568,1,0.0],[1001569,1,0.0],[1001570,1,0.0],[1001571,1,0.0],[1001572,3,0.0],[1001573,2,0.0],[1001574,3,0.0],[1001575,4,1.748474],[1001576,1,0.0],[1001577,3,0.0],[1001578,3,0.0],[1001579,2,0.0],[1001580,4,-0.105595],[1001581,3,0.0],[1001582,3,0.0],[1001583,1,0.0],[1001584,4,3.901687],[1001585,2,0.0],[1001586,1,0.0],[1001587,1,0.0],[1001588,3,0.0],[1001589,4,0.940527],[1001590,4,0.415263],[1001591,1,0.0],[1001592,3,0.0],[1001593,2,0.0],[1001594,3,0.0],[1001595,4,-0.027181],[1001596,1,0.0],[1001597,2,0.0],[1001598,1,0.0],[1001599,2,0.0],[1001600,4,1.011068],[1001601,3,0.0],[1001602,3,0.0],[1001603,1,0.0],[1001604,2,0.0],[1001605,4,0.23042],[1001606,4,-0.015432],[1001607,3,0.0],[1001608,4,0.31516],[1001609,3,0.0],[1001610,4,-2.547868],[1001611,3,0.0],[1001612,1,0.0],[1001613,3,0.0],[1001614,4,-0.178963],[1001615,3,0.0],[1001616,1,0.0],[1001617,1,0.0],[1001618,1,0.0],[1001619,3,0.0],[1001620,2,0.0],[1001621,1,0.0],[1001622,3,0.0],[1001623,2,0.0],[1001624,4,9.747114],[1001625,1,0.0],[1001626,3,0.0],[1001627,3,0.0],[1001628,2,0.0],[1001629,1,0.0],[1001630,2,0.0],[1001631,3,0.0],[1001632,2,0.0],[1001633,4,0.542097],[1001634,2,0.0],[1001635,2,0.0],[1001636,2,0.0],[1001637,4,-1.800147],[1001638,3,0.0],[1001639,3,0.0],[1001640,2,0.0],[1001641,2,0.0],[1001642,2,0.0],[1001643,3,0.0],[1001644,3,0.0],[1001645,3,0.0],[1001646,4,-0.559988],[1001647,1,0.0],[1001648,4,0.283095],[1001649,4,-0.360823],[1001650,2,0.0],[1001651,3,0.0],[1001652,2,0.0],[1001653,1,0.0],[1001654,2,0.0],[1001655,1,0.0],[1001656,4,-0.004973],[1001657,3,0.0],[1001658,2,0.0],[1001659,4,-0.79745],[1001660,1,0.0],[1001661,1,0.0],[1001662,2,0.0],[1001663,4,-1.059735],[1001664,1,0.0],[1001665,1,0.0],[1001666,1,0.0],[1001667,1,0.0],[1001668,3,0.0],[1001669,4,0.034746],[1001670,1,0.0],[1001671,4,-0.010151],[1001672,2,0.0],[1001673,4,0.173907],[1001674,2,0.0],[1001675,3,0.0],[1001676,2,0.0],[1001677,2,0.0],[1001678,4,0.393169],[1001679,4,1.106113],[1001680,3,0.0],[1001681,1,0.0],[1001682,3,0.0],[1001683,3,0.0],[1001684,1,0.0],[1001685,3,0.0],[1001686,1,0.0],[1001687,4,0.426888],[1001688,1,0.0],[1001689,2,0.0],[1001690,2,0.0],[1001691,3,0.0],[1001692,3,0.0],[1001693,2,0.0],[1001694,1,0.0],[1001695,1,0.0],[1001696,4,0.034276],[1001697,2,0.0],[1001698,2,0.0],[1001699,3,0.0],[1001700,2,0.0],[1001701,1,0.0],[1001702,2,0.0],[1001703,3,0.0],[1001704,1,0.0],[1001705,1,0.0],[1001706,3,0.0],[1001707,1,0.0],[1001708,1,0.0],[1001709,4,1.286763],[1001710,1,0.0],[1001711,1,0.0],[1001712,3,0.0],[1001713,1,0.0],[1001714,2,0.0],[1001715,1,0.0],[1001716,4,-0.390164],[1001717,2,0.0],[1001718,2,0.0],[1001719,1,0.0],[1001720,2,0.0],[1001721,3,0.0],[1001722,2,0.0],[1001723,3,0.0],[1001724,1,0.0],[1001725,3,0.0],[1001726,4,-0.000272],[1001727,1,0.0],[1001728,2,0.0],[1001729,2,0.0],[1001730,1,0.0],[1001731,2,0.0],[1001732,4,-1.886036],[1001733,1,0.0],[1001734,3,0.0],[1001735,2,0.0],[1001736,2,0.0],[1001737,1,0.0],[1001738,3,0.0],[1001739,3,0.0],[1001740,2,0.0],[1001741,4,0.139469],[1001742,3,0.0],[1001743,1,0.0],[1001744,3,0.0],[1001745,2,0.0],[1001746,4,0.069064],[1001747,2,0.0],[1001748,3,0.0],[1001749,1,0.0],[1001750,1,0.0],[1001751,2,0.0],[1001752,1,0.0],[1001753,2,0.0],[1001754,2,0.0],[1001755,3,0.0],[1001756,3,0.0],[1001757,2,0.0],[1001758,1,0.0],[1001759,2,0.0],[1001760,2,0.0],[1001761,1,0.0],[1001762,1,0.0],[1001763,1,0.0],[1001764,2,0.0],[1001765,3,0.0],[1001766,1,0.0],[1001767,4,0.259669],[1001768,4,2.574671],[1001769,2,0.0],[1001770,3,0.0],[1001771,3,0.0],[1001772,4,-0.001561],[1001773,1,0.0],[1001774,2,0.0],[1001775,1,0.0],[1001776,2,0.0],[1001777,1,0.0],[1001778,3,0.0],[1001779,1,0.0],[1001780,2,0.0],[1001781,2,0.0],[1001782,4,0.659182],[1001783,3,0.0],[1001784,1,0.0],[1001785,1,0.0],[1001786,1,0.0],[1001787,1,0.0],[1001788,3,0.0],[1001789,1,0.0],[1001790,3,0.0],[1001791,4,0.561543],[1001792,2,0.0],[1001793,2,0.0],[1001794,3,0.0],[1001795,3,0.0],[1001796,1,0.0],[1001797,2,0.0],[1001798,3,0.0],[1001799,3,0.0],[1001800,4,-0.007816],[1001801,2,0.0],[1001802,1,0.0],[1001803,4,1.077899],[1001804,4,0.25396],[1001805,2,0.0],[1001806,2,0.0],[1001807,4,0.097203],[1001808,2,0.0],[1001809,2,0.0],[1001810,2,0.0],[1001811,1,0.0],[1001812,2,0.0],[1001813,2,0.0],[1001814,3,0.0],[1001815,4,0.27366],[1001816,4,-0.020887],[1001817,2,0.0],[1001818,2,0.0],[1001819,2,0.0],[1001820,1,0.0],[1001821,2,0.0],[1001822,2,0.0],[1001823,2,0.0],[1001824,1,0.0],[1001825,1,0.0],[1001826,4,-0.234936],[1001827,1,0.0],[1001828,4,-0.009507],[1001829,3,0.0],[1001830,4,-0.058942],[1001831,4,6.663616],[1001832,2,0.0],[1001833,4,0.385694],[1001834,1,0.0],[1001835,3,0.0],[1001836,4,0.18154],[1001837,4,0.065928],[1001838,1,0.0],[1001839,1,0.0],[1001840,3,0.0],[1001841,3,0.0],[1001842,2,0.0],[1001843,3,0.0],[1001844,4,-1.811429],[1001845,1,0.0],[1001846,4,-0.103345],[1001847,4,-0.434277],[1001848,1,0.0],[1001849,3,0.0],[1001850,2,0.0],[1001851,2,0.0],[1001852,1,0.0],[1001853,3,0.0],[1001854,3,0.0],[1001855,4,1.887722],[1001856,1,0.0],[1001857,4,0.121193],[1001858,3,0.0],[1001859,3,0.0],[1001860,2,0.0],[1001861,4,-0.021934],[1001862,2,0.0],[1001863,2,0.0],[1001864,1,0.0],[1001865,3,0.0],[1001866,3,0.0],[1001867,3,0.0],[1001868,1,0.0],[1001869,1,0.0],[1001870,1,0.0],[1001871,2,0.0],[1001872,1,0.0],[1001873,3,0.0],[1001874,1,0.0],[1001875,1,0.0],[1001876,3,0.0],[1001877,1,0.0],[1001878,4,-0.156044],[1001879,4,5.377581],[1001880,1,0.0],[1001881,2,0.0],[1001882,1,0.0],[1001883,1,0.0],[1001884,3,0.0],[1001885,2,0.0],[1001886,3,0.0],[1001887,4,1.762856],[1001888,2,0.0],[1001889,1,0.0],[1001890,2,0.0],[1001891,2,0.0],[1001892,3,0.0],[1001893,1,0.0],[1001894,3,0.0],[1001895,3,0.0],[1001896,2,0.0],[1001897,2,0.0],[1001898,2,0.0],[1001899,4,0.401971],[1001900,3,0.0],[1001901,4,-0.16881],[1001902,1,0.0],[1001903,2,0.0],[1001904,4,0.039223],[1001905,4,0.963666],[1001906,3,0.0],[1001907,3,0.0],[1001908,1,0.0],[1001909,2,0.0],[1001910,3,0.0],[1001911,4,-0.277979],[1001912,2,0.0],[1001913,3,0.0],[1001914,4,0.131654],[1001915,2,0.0],[1001916,2,0.0],[1001917,4,-0.004799],[1001918,2,0.0],[1001919,2,0.0],[1001920,4,0.626531],[1001921,2,0.0],[1001922,3,0.0],[1001923,2,0.0],[1001924,4,-1.630978],[1001925,1,0.0],[1001926,1,0.0],[1001927,4,-0.070137],[1001928,1,0.0],[1001929,2,0.0],[1001930,1,0.0],[1001931,1,0.0],[1001932,4,1.909113],[1001933,1,0.0],[1001934,3,0.0],[1001935,4,-0.169196],[1001936,3,0.0],[1001937,4,-0.175005],[1001938,3,0.0],[1001939,4,-0.792161],[1001940,2,0.0],[1001941,3,0.0],[1001942,1,0.0],[1001943,3,0.0],[1001944,3,0.0],[1001945,2,0.0],[1001946,3,0.0],[1001947,4,1.225494],[1001948,1,0.0],[1001949,1,0.0],[1001950,4,-0.023148],[1001951,1,0.0],[1001952,1,0.0],[1001953,3,0.0],[1001954,4,-0.458095],[1001955,2,0.0],[1001956,1,0.0],[1001957,1,0.0],[1001958,3,0.0],[1001959,2,0.0],[1001960,2,0.0],[1001961,1,0.0],[1001962,2,0.0],[1001963,3,0.0],[1001964,1,0.0],[1001965,2,0.0],[1001966,3,0.0],[1001967,3,0.0],[1001968,4,1.779307],[1001969,2,0.0],[1001970,1,0.0],[1001971,4,-0.206417],[1001972,2,0.0],[1001973,4,-0.033793],[1001974,3,0.0],[1001975,2,0.0],[1001976,3,0.0],[1001977,1,0.0],[1001978,1,0.0],[1001979,2,0.0],[1001980,2,0.0],[1001981,1,0.0],[1001982,2,0.0],[1001983,2,0.0],[1001984,3,0.0],[1001985,3,0.0],[1001986,2,0.0],[1001987,1,0.0],[1001988,1,0.0],[1001989,3,0.0],[1001990,2,0.0],[1001991,4,2.936069],[1001992,3,0.0],[1001993,4,-0.462359],[1001994,3,0.0],[1001995,3,0.0],[1001996,4,-1.551329],[1001997,3,0.0],[1001998,4,0.213712],[1001999,2,0.0]],"seconds_per_simulation":{"t":0.7265,"candidate":0.7298},"notes":"T fetched from api.imd.fun artifact 79af781a...; both SHA-256 values matched the brief before any run. CANDIDATE = T with the single ON line changed to cancel=(2, 3); this flip only affects seeds whose competitor spread_ticks == 4, so d is expected to be exactly 0 for spreads 1-3 (verified: see by_spread). Simulator: danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge at b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e, unmodified, Python 3.12.3, serial in-process via runner.sample_config / loader.load_strategy_factory / SimulationEngine(cfg, factory, seed=s).run(), fresh factory per run, no sandbox, no workers. d = CANDIDATE.total_edge - T.total_edge, spread = cfg.competitor.spread_ticks. The run was executed in two serial chunks (1001500-1001911, then 1001912-1001999) because the first process hit a 10-minute tool limit; each seed is independent (seeded by s) so chunking does not alter results. se = sample sd / sqrt(n)."}