{ "approach": "One-sided quotes: infer fair price from previous fee band; switch sides when spot crosses estimate. Arb proxy: first-in-step trades with amountY/reserveY <= 5 bps; retail can be misclassified. Cheap 20 bps, wide 80 bps, bid cheap below fair, ask cheap above; symmetric fallback 30 bps after 4 quiet steps. Expiry takes effect only on a callback. Selected on seeds 0..1999; frozen once for 300000..301999. Timing is wall seconds/simulation with 8 workers. Promotion is relative to the 50 bps starter only.", "tried": [ { "variant": "r2", "parameters": [ 20, 80, 4, 30, 5, 1 ], "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "mean_edge": 371.8826497084145, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": 3.0782290907288066, "se": 0.11860003622167588, "worst": [ { "seed": 925, "diff": -13.870175997753677 }, { "seed": 1631, "diff": -13.462340531934387 }, { "seed": 1223, "diff": -12.839876932666414 }, { "seed": 1444, "diff": -10.711491035398069 }, { "seed": 942, "diff": -10.643495249269279 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.23486964605934918, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "worst": [ { "seed": 0, "diff": 0.0 }, { "seed": 1, "diff": 0.0 }, { "seed": 2, "diff": 0.0 }, { "seed": 3, "diff": 0.0 }, { "seed": 4, "diff": 0.0 } ] }, "mechanism": "stored fair-price crossing", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps", "reverse_direction" ], "training_rank": 1, "fresh_confirmation_vs_starter": "promoted" }, { "variant": "b3", "kind": "v", "control": false, "parameters": [ 20, 40, 0, 45, 0, 1 ], "sha256": "b1c8375a84c81c26ed0747f81021e0ef67f65b8f986a1447d69c4f46350c779d", "mean_edge": 359.50955023061715, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -9.29487038706851, "se": 0.05970675025097559, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -20.779862025902958 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -20.41157160406567 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -18.70259449584853 }, { "seed": 851, "diff": -18.58116665758706 }, { "seed": 1413, "diff": -18.5773949332567 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.14527659033844248, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -12.373099477797316, "se": 0.14847818406741092, "worst": [ { "seed": 708, "diff": -44.092008766986 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -37.22790523380354 }, { "seed": 66, "diff": -35.12244998971835 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -34.99410066201523 }, { "seed": 1407, "diff": -34.58355957328706 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 2 }, { "variant": "b1", "kind": "v", "control": true, "parameters": [ 40, 40, 0, 40, 0, 0 ], "sha256": "5b2f74b526494670b95d2226341aacb200eb678c9d021e1ce61ef2acaad550be", "mean_edge": 357.9518043462392, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -10.85261627144649, "se": 0.08630870706855598, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -26.456273815882412 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -25.03866220708653 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -24.22474946692438 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -23.86924545153647 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -22.65324293230782 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.17951615554536693, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -13.930845362175296, "se": 0.16669260037266082, "worst": [ { "seed": 708, "diff": -46.33368009522815 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -41.486705414987114 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -40.5463121103017 }, { "seed": 66, "diff": -39.7949551600297 }, { "seed": 1220, "diff": -37.81973271121507 } ] }, "mechanism": "symmetric control", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 3 }, { "variant": "b2", "kind": "v", "control": false, "parameters": [ 20, 40, 0, 40, 0, 1 ], "sha256": "29c6e5315f1436a03f8c5ae21e6427e7eeb6be5acfad650182e1fa5c494fe689", "mean_edge": 354.6157262298778, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -14.188694387807853, "se": 0.09848251610746019, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -31.239867651500504 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -29.733751997720333 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -29.556638548456363 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -29.385167937063443 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -28.43117159758077 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.1683278878836427, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -17.266923478536665, "se": 0.17670546408484752, "worst": [ { "seed": 708, "diff": -53.23707571137669 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -47.687910859401086 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -46.3870040336933 }, { "seed": 66, "diff": -43.42700155722696 }, { "seed": 1220, "diff": -42.88490956053636 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 4 }, { "variant": "e7", "kind": "v", "parameters": [ 20, 40, 0, 35, 0, 1 ], "sha256": "28486e4c54e69e35c32a105ea8051f0faddaf7a0d8cc02ed7413ea97f69f471d", "mean_edge": 348.4259901375647, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -20.378430480120965, "se": 0.14627914807627407, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -46.541432061137925 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -44.212894875370125 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -42.572249005187814 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -41.032155847680485 }, { "seed": 1660, "diff": -40.573026365689145 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.10209636026597582, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -23.45665957084977, "se": 0.2151759343637932, "worst": [ { "seed": 708, "diff": -62.60951973593973 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -60.66093808327071 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -57.58767222911371 }, { "seed": 66, "diff": -54.69178115018474 }, { "seed": 1220, "diff": -54.635683788202584 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 5 }, { "variant": "e5", "kind": "p", "parameters": [ 20, 40, 0, 30, 1, 1 ], "sha256": "d82db6668550578d51a5486c3221182a86aa9e01989ef7e89962b387cc65fefb", "mean_edge": 343.25730984363867, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -25.54711077404697, "se": 0.19540858715659648, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -63.029873341386576 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -56.16525433761342 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -55.90493511230244 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -53.51175545582538 }, { "seed": 1588, "diff": -52.15325463422454 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.09337278629699722, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -28.62533986477578, "se": 0.25612281625191513, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -72.613297545514 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -71.74283238931355 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -68.58564635064141 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -67.97512351525444 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -67.43768337552717 } ] }, "mechanism": "stored fair-price crossing", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps", "reverse_direction" ], "training_rank": 6 }, { "variant": "b0", "kind": "v", "control": true, "parameters": [ 30, 30, 0, 30, 0, 0 ], "sha256": "18724641157ad6645731cdc9b177ef991e82f68b0794ccb0ffefa60607b7de8d", "mean_edge": 342.94218249497794, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -25.862238122707726, "se": 0.19765280872841595, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -63.387074966086516 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -57.60228581864965 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -56.15902084995349 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -54.00285955204623 }, { "seed": 1588, "diff": -52.96637616291895 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.2994140010869596, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -28.940467213436534, "se": 0.2590694643264285, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -74.05032902655023 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -73.34442349017507 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -68.94447973245508 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -68.33232513995438 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -67.69176911317822 } ] }, "mechanism": "symmetric control", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 7 }, { "variant": "e3", "kind": "v", "parameters": [ 20, 40, 0, 30, 0, 1 ], "sha256": "dd1ab8bcd1da56d89324cabeddaba74100c3cf02f3dcfa95d8adb1d63ceab894", "mean_edge": 340.8003190837142, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -28.00410153397148, "se": 0.19971715787813257, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -65.05087144809738 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -60.37689983981568 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -58.592815534348745 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -56.143285664516384 }, { "seed": 1588, "diff": -55.095277358694716 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.18135909884632564, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -31.082330624700283, "se": 0.2615812261161168, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -76.82494304771626 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -75.72191813956334 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -71.02851215568523 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -70.12556379757348 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -69.99612162196524 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 8 }, { "variant": "e4", "kind": "p", "parameters": [ 20, 40, 0, 30, 1, 0 ], "sha256": "ec70dda4736d3369b6ffc941c4f1676f285d62be3483d1b7bb5eb0b253c033e3", "mean_edge": 339.723926957588, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -29.080493660097705, "se": 0.20359377408089285, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -66.20706106106832 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -62.04342441348763 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -59.3423745048716 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -58.31473819486001 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -57.49374153595119 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.1832692520271521, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -32.15872275082651, "se": 0.26540880377951787, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -78.49146762138821 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -77.70135915582841 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -76.27057063097254 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -71.15231123493618 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -70.87512276809633 } ] }, "mechanism": "stored fair-price crossing", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps", "reverse_direction" ], "training_rank": 9 }, { "variant": "v2", "parameters": [ 20, 60, 2, 30, 0, 0 ], "sha256": "59612ab4a785d39b566aa688fc55ae212694e514f3971290055686ec9eeed29d", "mean_edge": 339.5677251385613, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -29.2366954791244, "se": 0.14693806359097022, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -52.68895286582102 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -52.581499045275336 }, { "seed": 883, "diff": -50.99664591644682 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -48.38048467690555 }, { "seed": 1628, "diff": -47.446503555962806 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.21874397680349647, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -32.3149245698532, "se": 0.219800366475009, "worst": [ { "seed": 708, "diff": -68.49613545844466 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -64.82852788480614 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -64.11424730850007 }, { "seed": 66, "diff": -63.91768665126824 }, { "seed": 141, "diff": -63.13739329147256 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 10 }, { "variant": "r1", "parameters": [ 20, 60, 2, 30, 0, 1 ], "sha256": "4879e905650706e152afd7d61f2f746149d862afde8c637031d586841b37b27b", "mean_edge": 337.9033274922489, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -30.90109312543682, "se": 0.13434128822905908, "worst": [ { "seed": 1220, "diff": -53.27054571487156 }, { "seed": 318, "diff": -52.00646958440541 }, { "seed": 716, "diff": -50.58701637961349 }, { "seed": 491, "diff": -50.446102403939506 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -50.23157419623806 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.2902465579831041, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -33.97932221616561, "se": 0.18715738004908383, "worst": [ { "seed": 1220, "diff": -69.36762106945912 }, { "seed": 1407, "diff": -60.79406830805817 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -60.619866927538 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -59.18425312396329 }, { "seed": 1085, "diff": -59.17627741377538 } ] }, "mechanism": "stored fair-price crossing", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps", "reverse_direction" ], "training_rank": 11 }, { "variant": "e0", "kind": "v", "parameters": [ 20, 40, 0, 30, 0, 0 ], "sha256": "459b45ef8b589532581ac54af6cf81c96b643bcfee92bcf3ab7ac6811d03f3c5", "mean_edge": 335.319513525061, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -33.484907092624695, "se": 0.21419894407980755, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -71.91060643024434 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -66.3017749182074 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -66.21348149957953 }, { "seed": 1588, "diff": -63.275148418285085 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -60.76839884678094 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.3119356540264562, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -36.5631361833535, "se": 0.277765959849834, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -82.66152470748011 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -81.77885296717773 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -77.83452318143213 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -76.8558566041122 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -76.79236901461371 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 12 }, { "variant": "v7", "parameters": [ 20, 50, 0, 30, 0, 5 ], "sha256": "561372ad3bfbec8a43cd3d5c04de6d9020e8617c206e7acc72e13430e2aacad8", "mean_edge": 333.48845344049164, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -35.31596717719405, "se": 0.1953481444593181, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -71.10675887943478 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -67.19937330923273 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -66.4930294869784 }, { "seed": 1588, "diff": -61.245998265750075 }, { "seed": 491, "diff": -61.192125864248 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.17799069771147333, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -38.39419626792286, "se": 0.25962334989331937, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -83.64741651713331 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -82.73479578847702 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -78.02577775020313 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -77.37559132251124 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -76.05200905330264 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 13 }, { "variant": "e2", "kind": "v", "parameters": [ 20, 35, 0, 30, 0, 0 ], "sha256": "84fd63b9c48ee6908eebd8e7da26c0e95e7b0b6c97c053c54beb138637565835", "mean_edge": 331.07311611982885, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -37.73130449785683, "se": 0.2440972392872452, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -83.41896057867996 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -75.59426496972799 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -74.80111963448536 }, { "seed": 1588, "diff": -71.49832069990958 }, { "seed": 5, "diff": -69.80911897131108 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.2472717081361916, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -40.809533588585644, "se": 0.3046223227585543, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -92.04230817762857 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -90.1979964033336 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -88.36421075254782 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -86.33386789771009 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -85.84867057522081 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 14 }, { "variant": "e1", "kind": "v", "parameters": [ 20, 40, 0, 30, 1, 0 ], "sha256": "b877be5e7127741147105d8d0dd05b435918412d6d07f1ab62e54f38ccddd65d", "mean_edge": 322.57166332795, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -46.23275728973567, "se": 0.2320466486375664, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -86.18048574316316 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -80.36653499383999 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -78.59287746634664 }, { "seed": 1220, "diff": -77.57915971185633 }, { "seed": 1557, "diff": -77.28597255134542 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.2606504958376754, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -49.31098638046448, "se": 0.28953481146439575, "worst": [ { "seed": 708, "diff": -98.24085284922359 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -96.81457820174057 }, { "seed": 1220, "diff": -93.6762350664439 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -93.32519971770898 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -91.12573591703102 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 15 }, { "variant": "p2", "parameters": [ 20, 60, 0, 30, 0, 0 ], "sha256": "6d8df19a6a8304102d28e5c7c12012293a2396f307ca3522895f0aced7f12ab8", "mean_edge": 322.4887344151134, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -46.3156862025723, "se": 0.24013808526560082, "worst": [ { "seed": 179, "diff": -80.40605135530546 }, { "seed": 883, "diff": -79.93874484918337 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -78.78156885661076 }, { "seed": 1846, "diff": -77.22713637511515 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -77.02934783315476 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.2630261895605363, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -49.393915293301106, "se": 0.30503821424452493, "worst": [ { "seed": 708, "diff": -95.8638865168395 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -93.47739104105534 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -91.9387996185302 }, { "seed": 1978, "diff": -90.02805771555836 }, { "seed": 883, "diff": -89.5829689730507 } ] }, "mechanism": "stored fair-price crossing", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps", "reverse_direction" ], "training_rank": 16 }, { "variant": "e6", "kind": "v", "parameters": [ 20, 40, 0, 25, 0, 1 ], "sha256": "c3176db323e75798022abe366824595f674b8d86686d38edfdcdd6563d650921", "mean_edge": 321.5846827427386, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -47.21973787494701, "se": 0.27828980220865107, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -97.90316490415404 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -91.50041521615145 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -88.35574935854265 }, { "seed": 1588, "diff": -84.71355431087056 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -83.49312076719451 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.0764839259851724, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -50.29796696567581, "se": 0.33572242566857646, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -107.94845842405203 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -103.65483634547701 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -102.8484150780219 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -99.88849762176739 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -99.61632695294986 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 17 }, { "variant": "v6", "parameters": [ 15, 80, 2, 30, 0, 5 ], "sha256": "46279d504877bc8accef30bc37e70ef1a23d5619aa114ce4667b8a1d59864149", "mean_edge": 317.1263361897539, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -51.678084427931765, "se": 0.17973994550521533, "worst": [ { "seed": 1718, "diff": -76.54276352645576 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -74.9704516331401 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -74.70880603761174 }, { "seed": 1321, "diff": -74.61867048095792 }, { "seed": 1349, "diff": -74.6101260258182 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.1650315397826489, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -54.756313518660576, "se": 0.2456185137953854, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -91.15684924551232 }, { "seed": 1407, "diff": -90.11715928780336 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -89.61753471018301 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -89.08895753426765 }, { "seed": 1718, "diff": -88.82113729755321 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 18 }, { "variant": "v5", "parameters": [ 15, 60, 1, 30, 0, 10 ], "sha256": "7741a772fd5154e706f2bd6a0fc5678ec293f8e2cbed0ab8b6ea152f3da9790c", "mean_edge": 316.91333959609386, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -51.8910810215918, "se": 0.20370320928757243, "worst": [ { "seed": 1849, "diff": -84.03976981923722 }, { "seed": 1660, "diff": -82.2852733028547 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -80.28096327238973 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -79.40342248466112 }, { "seed": 1033, "diff": -77.35199046903784 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.21998388981330208, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -54.969310112320606, "se": 0.2697831167515388, "worst": [ { "seed": 708, "diff": -98.6026689891421 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -97.35925492077365 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -93.00850211537687 }, { "seed": 66, "diff": -91.87397223120706 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -91.81371153561446 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 19 }, { "variant": "r3", "parameters": [ 15, 50, 0, 30, 0, 1 ], "sha256": "f0853610dce16cd6e8eec7041dd46552b6f5dfdc9704badf8d66e177e3a44fd5", "mean_edge": 316.6120349406279, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -52.19238567705784, "se": 0.1914701806559116, "worst": [ { "seed": 1349, "diff": -82.56599795166767 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -82.35058964242415 }, { "seed": 1557, "diff": -79.90515929504193 }, { "seed": 1220, "diff": -79.84201599206966 }, { "seed": 793, "diff": -77.80363368418568 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.26595311662508175, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -55.27061476778665, "se": 0.24549854596146406, "worst": [ { "seed": 1220, "diff": -95.93909134665722 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -94.94510270894904 }, { "seed": 1503, "diff": -92.7388823737241 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -91.2405741744015 }, { "seed": 1742, "diff": -90.70920359244315 } ] }, "mechanism": "stored fair-price crossing", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps", "reverse_direction" ], "training_rank": 20 }, { "variant": "v1", "parameters": [ 10, 80, 1, 30, 0, 0 ], "sha256": "26fec1d0e781dbf24469457ae9baa9ea5aea00a2955749dadbb071f1dee8eef5", "mean_edge": 303.45652209640633, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -65.34789852127932, "se": 0.2404821616707507, "worst": [ { "seed": 742, "diff": -94.8576447864915 }, { "seed": 883, "diff": -94.29491007138114 }, { "seed": 1282, "diff": -93.60910790510962 }, { "seed": 491, "diff": -92.20942617384873 }, { "seed": 418, "diff": -91.93798168019305 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.1359284626664594, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -68.42612761200812, "se": 0.30184481265836666, "worst": [ { "seed": 76, "diff": -106.97544924441587 }, { "seed": 418, "diff": -105.65979101080995 }, { "seed": 616, "diff": -105.29019946149134 }, { "seed": 883, "diff": -103.93913419524847 }, { "seed": 1407, "diff": -102.56159090328038 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 21 }, { "variant": "p1", "parameters": [ 15, 60, 2, 30, 0, 0 ], "sha256": "e76bad718df75c918d440192ace53662852e74ee94c1025f1f021b33d2d36f5a", "mean_edge": 301.43573483958005, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -67.36868577810561, "se": 0.3221536506097018, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -116.32574255075752 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -110.98280632010841 }, { "seed": 883, "diff": -110.44044842574056 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -109.89469559698011 }, { "seed": 1869, "diff": -108.73586930267948 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.23177266954747028, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -70.44691486883443, "se": 0.38219622096889855, "worst": [ { "seed": 118, "diff": -132.7737857586581 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -125.93964722709421 }, { "seed": 141, "diff": -122.47361623839953 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -121.42744386020485 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -120.66819531574811 } ] }, "mechanism": "stored fair-price crossing", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps", "reverse_direction" ], "training_rank": 22 }, { "variant": "v4", "parameters": [ 10, 100, 4, 30, 0, 0 ], "sha256": "f826822d7158059d9726d6dc813f8febf04c5ace05d9b902f13473436b336a40", "mean_edge": 298.26649471639905, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -70.53792590128661, "se": 0.260595618593523, "worst": [ { "seed": 742, "diff": -105.17137511936187 }, { "seed": 671, "diff": -103.79457885835785 }, { "seed": 1282, "diff": -103.78268951337787 }, { "seed": 390, "diff": -102.3600448542278 }, { "seed": 1106, "diff": -101.32488342398318 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.24249172238563188, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -73.61615499201542, "se": 0.31295118419386336, "worst": [ { "seed": 731, "diff": -116.85921520126965 }, { "seed": 418, "diff": -113.61557786353978 }, { "seed": 671, "diff": -112.0532752865584 }, { "seed": 1742, "diff": -111.4227112646168 }, { "seed": 390, "diff": -111.40780500250514 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 23 }, { "variant": "r0", "parameters": [ 10, 80, 1, 30, 0, 1 ], "sha256": "c98e0680f42ca93d94acf83a831072a8dc36875e74e99bcb7e0592a8d8cf8341", "mean_edge": 284.6505858259385, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -84.15383479174722, "se": 0.23264801958017664, "worst": [ { "seed": 1349, "diff": -117.8035258439134 }, { "seed": 491, "diff": -117.05025142252953 }, { "seed": 19, "diff": -116.9324421347996 }, { "seed": 321, "diff": -116.41313800709776 }, { "seed": 716, "diff": -116.01315293293743 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.1589911314994097, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -87.232063882476, "se": 0.27806053959742644, "worst": [ { "seed": 1220, "diff": -130.8169556499252 }, { "seed": 1742, "diff": -127.03245979581612 }, { "seed": 486, "diff": -123.49610623993209 }, { "seed": 19, "diff": -123.06019693057095 }, { "seed": 734, "diff": -120.22362507446644 } ] }, "mechanism": "stored fair-price crossing", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps", "reverse_direction" ], "training_rank": 24 }, { "variant": "v0", "parameters": [ 5, 60, 0, 30, 0, 0 ], "sha256": "dc453b5c83484088aa4b2d6328ee8cfaecfd8b7296a50a9c375a169d3c9376eb", "mean_edge": 283.4462157864273, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -85.35820483125848, "se": 0.3182105016020873, "worst": [ { "seed": 179, "diff": -128.14774341753736 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -127.43589250478055 }, { "seed": 1869, "diff": -123.74751594011911 }, { "seed": 883, "diff": -123.08038351645712 }, { "seed": 13, "diff": -121.66234642399104 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.08042879303870723, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -88.43643392198727, "se": 0.3772434740431903, "worst": [ { "seed": 708, "diff": -141.5994005803534 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -139.6804916807621 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -136.52918581536784 }, { "seed": 883, "diff": -132.72460764032445 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -132.38114267864842 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 25 }, { "variant": "p0", "parameters": [ 10, 80, 1, 30, 0, 0 ], "sha256": "7f5e3f5e9e975ea7f6edfffd426c8b9834ed236a057704bce0236653193ee435", "mean_edge": 271.6412479066795, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -97.1631727110062, "se": 0.4104643889596913, "worst": [ { "seed": 76, "diff": -148.21934980645545 }, { "seed": 883, "diff": -146.90717875332632 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -145.73442385872 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -144.41457798269698 }, { "seed": 1390, "diff": -144.08511487883476 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.13313791240169667, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -100.241401801735, "se": 0.46583565507042785, "worst": [ { "seed": 76, "diff": -166.17518224256798 }, { "seed": 1742, "diff": -156.66154193531492 }, { "seed": 883, "diff": -156.55140287719365 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -155.94732624592172 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -154.8185609734262 } ] }, "mechanism": "stored fair-price crossing", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps", "reverse_direction" ], "training_rank": 26 }, { "variant": "p3", "parameters": [ 10, 80, 2, 30, 5, 0 ], "sha256": "828a0a5377ed410fd1c0fd32068b41df40e7e4e7374580030117419b25c2603d", "mean_edge": 269.2912548329875, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -99.51316578469815, "se": 0.3846413246435107, "worst": [ { "seed": 708, "diff": -150.332381957655 }, { "seed": 1849, "diff": -149.63957069813551 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -146.18276807377947 }, { "seed": 639, "diff": -145.84982812291696 }, { "seed": 883, "diff": -143.2433213783949 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.27657513292902147, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -102.59139487542696, "se": 0.44223389514287903, "worst": [ { "seed": 708, "diff": -174.01281912057533 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -159.35751976325128 }, { "seed": 639, "diff": -158.46305659760247 }, { "seed": 1742, "diff": -158.14185189096202 }, { "seed": 179, "diff": -157.7155163370042 } ] }, "mechanism": "stored fair-price crossing", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps", "reverse_direction" ], "training_rank": 27 }, { "variant": "v3", "parameters": [ 10, 80, 1, 30, 1, 0 ], "sha256": "f8ba34101196012e95f2aca133aef9887d39b42460fa15d44389ac7d80a703f1", "mean_edge": 267.8859409258505, "paired": { "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -100.91847969183519, "se": 0.2991455836411866, "worst": [ { "seed": 1220, "diff": -142.58783189713375 }, { "seed": 419, "diff": -137.97752193028379 }, { "seed": 318, "diff": -137.6740284403234 }, { "seed": 491, "diff": -137.45030625172143 }, { "seed": 852, "diff": -137.04973701780142 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.24462752590421588, "paired_against_selected_strategy": { "variant": "r2", "sha256": "baefd7d8d123335215f3c53bb8f291337f0043cf8300f1d46299c65c05c124ce", "n": 2000, "seed_start": 0, "mean_diff": -103.996708782564, "se": 0.3501613849214583, "worst": [ { "seed": 1220, "diff": -158.6849072517213 }, { "seed": 76, "diff": -149.95944051595143 }, { "seed": 708, "diff": -149.9446505073284 }, { "seed": 1742, "diff": -147.45532366155993 }, { "seed": 118, "diff": -147.2156833150645 } ] }, "mechanism": "latched direction", "parameter_order": [ "cheap_bps", "wide_bps", "quiet_steps", "symmetric_bps", "reverse_direction", "maximum_trade_reserve_ratio_bps" ], "training_rank": 28 } ], "next": [ "Compare with the strongest merged strategy on new paired seeds.", "Test a smooth fair-price skew against this binary cheap/wide rule.", "Improve the arb proxy with price continuity; retain symmetric controls." ], "code": "pragma solidity ^0.8.24;\nimport {AMMStrategyBase} from \"./AMMStrategyBase.sol\";\nimport {TradeInfo} from \"./IAMMStrategy.sol\";\ncontract Strategy is AMMStrategyBase{\nfunction afterInitialize(uint256 x,uint256 y) external override returns(uint256,uint256){slots[0]=type(uint256).max;slots[1]=y*WAD/x;slots[2]=30*BPS;slots[3]=30*BPS;slots[4]=0;return(30*BPS,30*BPS);}\nfunction afterSwap(TradeInfo calldata t) external override returns(uint256 b,uint256 a){\nuint256 p=t.reserveY*WAD/t.reserveX;\nif(t.timestamp!=slots[0]){slots[0]=t.timestamp;if(t.amountY*10000<=t.reserveY*5){slots[1]=t.isBuy?p*(WAD-slots[2])/WAD:p*WAD/(WAD-slots[3]);slots[4]=t.timestamp;}}\nb=30*BPS;a=b;\nif(t.timestamp-slots[4]<=4){if(p