{
 "approach": "Coordinate search over CH's estimator constants was planned (25% then 10% steps in 1-x space for decays, two passes). Only a tiny fraction was possible: the machine has a 1-CPU cgroup quota (cpu.max 100000/100000), so the Rust engine ran at about 3.9 s/simulation (30 sims = ~120 s), versus the ~1 s assumed by the brief. The specified n>=500 per evaluation (~33 min each), the 2000-sim paired check and the 1000-sim score were out of reach in the time limit. I ran 7 first-pass steps at n=30 only, paired on seeds 10000..10029 against CH. No step cleared +2 se, so no step was kept. Delivered end point = CH unchanged.",
 "tried": [
  {
   "variant": "DIR_IMPACT_MULT=3",
   "seeds": "10000..10029",
   "n": 30,
   "mean_diff": -0.0147,
   "se": 0.0282
  },
  {
   "variant": "DIR_IMPACT_MULT=5",
   "seeds": "10000..10029",
   "n": 30,
   "mean_diff": 0.0067,
   "se": 0.0441
  },
  {
   "variant": "LAMBDA_CAP+25%",
   "seeds": "10000..10029",
   "n": 30,
   "mean_diff": -0.6649,
   "se": 0.4512
  },
  {
   "variant": "LAMBDA_CAP-25%",
   "seeds": "10000..10029",
   "n": 30,
   "mean_diff": -0.5574,
   "se": 0.1106
  },
  {
   "variant": "SIGMA_DECAY-25%",
   "seeds": "10000..10029",
   "n": 30,
   "mean_diff": -0.1834,
   "se": 0.0677
  },
  {
   "variant": "SIGNAL_THRESHOLD+25%",
   "seeds": "10000..10029",
   "n": 30,
   "mean_diff": -0.1019,
   "se": 0.0562
  },
  {
   "variant": "SIGNAL_THRESHOLD-25%",
   "seeds": "10000..10029",
   "n": 30,
   "mean_diff": 0.0115,
   "se": 0.0847
  },
  {
   "variant": "CH baseline (reference, mean edge)",
   "seeds": "10000..10029",
   "n": 30,
   "mean_diff": 0,
   "se": 0,
   "note": "mean edge 520.009"
  }
 ],
 "not_tried": "SIGMA_DECAY +25%, LAMBDA_DECAY, SIZE_BLEND_DECAY, ACT_BLEND_DECAY, STEP_COUNT_CAP, DIR_DECAY, ACT_DECAY, SIZE_DECAY (both signs), all +-10% steps, and all of pass 2 (11000..11499): not run for lack of compute time.",
 "next": "Rerun the same search on a machine with >=8 real cores (about 8x faster, ~0.5 s/sim); at n=500 the se of a paired diff is roughly 0.01-0.05, so the 2-se rule can be applied. At n=30 the se is 0.03-0.45, too wide to see gains of the size the top-five gap implies. LAMBDA_CAP looks sensitive (-0.56 +-0.11 at -25%), so smaller steps on it and SIGMA_DECAY are the most informative next evaluations.",
 "code": "// SPDX-License-Identifier: MIT\npragma solidity ^0.8.24;\n\nimport {AMMStrategyBase} from \"./AMMStrategyBase.sol\";\nimport {TradeInfo} from \"./IAMMStrategy.sol\";\n\ncontract Strategy is AMMStrategyBase {\n    uint256 constant ELAPSED_CAP = 8;\n    uint256 constant SIGNAL_THRESHOLD = WAD / 650;\n    uint256 constant DIR_DECAY = 750000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant ACT_DECAY = 530000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant SIZE_DECAY = 530000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TOX_DECAY = 910000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_DECAY = 690000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_DECAY = 990000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant SIZE_BLEND_DECAY = 828000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TOX_BLEND_DECAY = 51000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant ACT_BLEND_DECAY = 985000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA = 270000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL = 60000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant DIR_IMPACT_MULT = 4;\n    uint256 constant GATE_SIGMA_MULT = 7200000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant MIN_GATE = 30000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TRADE_TOX_BOOST = 3500 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC = 1050000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant RET_CAP = WAD / 35;\n    uint256 constant TOX_CAP = WAD / 5;\n    uint256 constant TRADE_RATIO_CAP = WAD / 5;\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_CAP = 1820000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant STEP_COUNT_CAP = 64;\n    uint256 constant BASE_FEE = 4 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_COEF = 200000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_COEF = 12 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant FLOW_SIZE_COEF = 4842 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TOX_COEF = 300 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TOX_QUAD_COEF = 15000 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant ACT_COEF = 91843 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant DIR_COEF = 20 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant DIR_TOX_COEF = 100 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant STALE_DIR_COEF = 6850 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_TOX_COEF = 500 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_KNEE = 600 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT = 930000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT = 850000000000000000;\n\n    function afterInitialize(uint256 initialX, uint256 initialY) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n        slots[0] = BASE_FEE; slots[1] = BASE_FEE; slots[2] = 0; slots[3] = WAD; slots[4] = 0;\n        slots[5] = initialX > 0 ? wdiv(initialY, initialX) : 100 * WAD;\n        slots[6] = 950000000000000; slots[7] = 800000000000000000; slots[8] = 2000000000000000;\n        slots[9] = 0; slots[10] = 0;\n        return (BASE_FEE, BASE_FEE);\n    }\n\n    function afterSwap(TradeInfo calldata trade) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n        uint256 prevBidFee = slots[0]; uint256 prevAskFee = slots[1]; uint256 lastTs = slots[2];\n        uint256 dirState = slots[3]; uint256 actEma = slots[4]; uint256 pHat = slots[5];\n        uint256 sigmaHat = slots[6]; uint256 lambdaHat = slots[7]; uint256 sizeHat = slots[8];\n        uint256 toxEma = slots[9]; uint256 stepTradeCount = slots[10];\n\n        bool isNewStep = trade.timestamp > lastTs;\n        if (isNewStep) {\n            uint256 elapsedRaw = trade.timestamp - lastTs;\n            uint256 elapsed = elapsedRaw > ELAPSED_CAP ? ELAPSED_CAP : elapsedRaw;\n            dirState = _decayCentered(dirState, DIR_DECAY, elapsed);\n            actEma = wmul(actEma, _powWad(ACT_DECAY, elapsed));\n            sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, _powWad(SIZE_DECAY, elapsed));\n            toxEma = wmul(toxEma, _powWad(TOX_DECAY, elapsed));\n            if (stepTradeCount > 0 && elapsedRaw > 0) {\n                uint256 lambdaInst = (stepTradeCount * WAD) / elapsedRaw;\n                if (lambdaInst > LAMBDA_CAP) lambdaInst = LAMBDA_CAP;\n                lambdaHat = wmul(lambdaHat, LAMBDA_DECAY) + wmul(lambdaInst, WAD - LAMBDA_DECAY);\n            }\n            stepTradeCount = 0;\n        }\n\n        bool firstInStep = stepTradeCount == 0;\n        uint256 spot = trade.reserveX > 0 ? wdiv(trade.reserveY, trade.reserveX) : pHat;\n        if (pHat == 0) pHat = spot;\n\n        uint256 feeUsed = trade.isBuy ? prevBidFee : prevAskFee;\n        uint256 gamma = feeUsed < WAD ? WAD - feeUsed : 0;\n        uint256 pImplied;\n        if (gamma == 0) { pImplied = spot; }\n        else { pImplied = trade.isBuy ? wmul(spot, gamma) : wdiv(spot, gamma); }\n\n        {\n            uint256 ret = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(pImplied, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n            uint256 alpha = firstInStep ? PHAT_ALPHA : PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL;\n            uint256 adaptiveGate = wmul(sigmaHat, GATE_SIGMA_MULT);\n            if (adaptiveGate < MIN_GATE) adaptiveGate = MIN_GATE;\n            if (ret <= adaptiveGate) { pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - alpha) + wmul(pImplied, alpha); }\n            if (firstInStep) {\n                if (ret > RET_CAP) ret = RET_CAP;\n                sigmaHat = wmul(sigmaHat, SIGMA_DECAY) + wmul(ret, WAD - SIGMA_DECAY);\n            }\n        }\n\n        uint256 tradeRatio = trade.reserveY > 0 ? wdiv(trade.amountY, trade.reserveY) : 0;\n        if (tradeRatio > TRADE_RATIO_CAP) tradeRatio = TRADE_RATIO_CAP;\n\n        if (tradeRatio > SIGNAL_THRESHOLD) {\n            uint256 push = tradeRatio * DIR_IMPACT_MULT;\n            if (push > WAD / 4) push = WAD / 4;\n            if (trade.isBuy) {\n                dirState = dirState + push;\n                if (dirState > 2 * WAD) dirState = 2 * WAD;\n            } else {\n                dirState = dirState > push ? dirState - push : 0;\n            }\n            actEma = wmul(actEma, ACT_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - ACT_BLEND_DECAY);\n            sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, SIZE_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - SIZE_BLEND_DECAY);\n            if (sizeHat > WAD) sizeHat = WAD;\n        }\n\n        uint256 tox = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(spot, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n        if (tox > TOX_CAP) tox = TOX_CAP;\n        toxEma = wmul(toxEma, TOX_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tox, WAD - TOX_BLEND_DECAY);\n        uint256 toxSignal = toxEma;\n\n        stepTradeCount = stepTradeCount + 1;\n        if (stepTradeCount > STEP_COUNT_CAP) stepTradeCount = STEP_COUNT_CAP;\n\n        uint256 flowSize = wmul(lambdaHat, sizeHat);\n        uint256 fBase = BASE_FEE + wmul(SIGMA_COEF, sigmaHat) + wmul(LAMBDA_COEF, lambdaHat) + wmul(FLOW_SIZE_COEF, flowSize);\n        uint256 fMid = fBase + wmul(TOX_COEF, toxSignal) + wmul(TOX_QUAD_COEF, wmul(toxSignal, toxSignal)) + wmul(ACT_COEF, actEma);\n        fMid = fMid + wmul(SIGMA_TOX_COEF, wmul(sigmaHat, toxSignal));\n\n        uint256 dirDev; bool sellPressure;\n        if (dirState >= WAD) { dirDev = dirState - WAD; sellPressure = true; }\n        else { dirDev = WAD - dirState; sellPressure = false; }\n\n        uint256 skew = wmul(DIR_COEF, dirDev) + wmul(DIR_TOX_COEF, wmul(dirDev, toxSignal));\n        uint256 bidFee; uint256 askFee;\n        if (sellPressure) {\n            bidFee = fMid + skew;\n            askFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n        } else {\n            askFee = fMid + skew;\n            bidFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n        }\n\n        {\n            uint256 staleShift = wmul(STALE_DIR_COEF, toxSignal);\n            uint256 attractShift = wmul(staleShift, STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC);\n            if (spot >= pHat) {\n                bidFee = bidFee + staleShift;\n                askFee = askFee > attractShift ? askFee - attractShift : 0;\n            } else {\n                askFee = askFee + staleShift;\n                bidFee = bidFee > attractShift ? bidFee - attractShift : 0;\n            }\n        }\n\n        {\n            bool tradeAligned = (trade.isBuy && spot >= pHat) || (!trade.isBuy && spot < pHat);\n            if (tradeAligned) {\n                uint256 tradeBoost = wmul(TRADE_TOX_BOOST, tradeRatio);\n                if (trade.isBuy) { bidFee = bidFee + tradeBoost; }\n                else { askFee = askFee + tradeBoost; }\n            }\n        }\n\n        if (sellPressure) {\n            bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT));\n            askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT));\n        } else {\n            askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT));\n            bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT));\n        }\n\n        slots[0] = bidFee; slots[1] = askFee; slots[2] = trade.timestamp;\n        slots[3] = dirState; slots[4] = actEma; slots[5] = pHat;\n        slots[6] = sigmaHat; slots[7] = lambdaHat; slots[8] = sizeHat;\n        slots[9] = toxEma; slots[10] = stepTradeCount;\n\n        return (bidFee, askFee);\n    }\n\n    function _compressTailWithSlope(uint256 fee, uint256 slope) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n        if (fee <= TAIL_KNEE) return fee;\n        return TAIL_KNEE + wmul(fee - TAIL_KNEE, slope);\n    }\n\n    function _powWad(uint256 factor, uint256 exp) internal pure returns (uint256 result) {\n        result = WAD;\n        while (exp > 0) {\n            if (exp & 1 == 1) result = wmul(result, factor);\n            factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n            exp >>= 1;\n        }\n    }\n\n    function _decayCentered(uint256 centered, uint256 decayFactor, uint256 elapsed) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n        uint256 mul = _powWad(decayFactor, elapsed);\n        if (centered >= WAD) { return WAD + wmul(centered - WAD, mul); }\n        uint256 below = wmul(WAD - centered, mul);\n        return below < WAD ? WAD - below : 0;\n    }\n\n    function getName() external pure override returns (string memory) { return \"no_cubic\"; }\n}\n",
 "code_sha256": "6dd68f77a70900319460215374143dbd5d924198450a46d9f5f91f6b1e3d35c3",
 "delta": "None. The file is byte-identical to CH (sha256 6dd68f77...). No constant was changed.",
 "score": {
  "seed_start": 0,
  "n": 32,
  "mean_edge": 536.6014433887796,
  "se": null,
  "note": "only seeds 0..31 were run (n=32, not 1000); the CH reference over 0..999 is 525.525882178 per the brief and was not reproduced"
 },
 "paired": {
  "reference": "CH 6dd68f77",
  "seed_start": 600000,
  "n": 0,
  "mean_diff": 0.0,
  "se": 0.0,
  "worst": [],
  "note": "candidate is byte-identical to CH, so the paired difference is exactly 0 by identity; no 600000..601999 run was done (not enough compute) and none was needed to know this. Seeds 600000+ and 900000+ were never used."
 },
 "seconds_per_simulation": 3.9,
 "validate_ok": true,
 "validate_note": "amm-match validate passed on CH.sol (sha256 verified) and on StarterStrategy.sol",
 "blocked": null,
 "citations": [
  "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ChengHua926/amm-challenge/d34a5199c59a4c44d5336a25f1436b4ae1f21104/contracts/src/Strategy.sol",
  "https://github.com/benedictbrady/amm-challenge (commit 6b6921f8)"
 ],
 "toolchain_note": "No system cc; used ziglang as cc linker wrapper (fallback in brief). micromamba path failed (no bzip2). Built with maturin develop --release. All scratch work under test/scratch."
}