{"credit":"Taylor (gtmcknight), github.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim@4812a6382311624e1506aca131ca35c378f930d9 research/solved","idea":"Single-estimate posterior probability of a two-pool router split sets the nonbinding retail rival log-spot pull.","setup":{"public_sources":["https://raw.githubusercontent.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim/66604b3426d8e97a73e2c39940b9b4dece51cc73/research/solved/replica2.py","https://raw.githubusercontent.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim/66604b3426d8e97a73e2c39940b9b4dece51cc73/research/solved/real.py","https://raw.githubusercontent.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim/66604b3426d8e97a73e2c39940b9b4dece51cc73/research/solved/run.py","https://raw.githubusercontent.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim/66604b3426d8e97a73e2c39940b9b4dece51cc73/research/tell/fetch.sh","https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/f5a140f51df99423d6ede60b618dbc6eabc37a3050ac439c80dc3824191e9f59","https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/19bf5534225de5b3d201baaf0e35f9f2a8671120380295ea7726bf6379caedc1","https://raw.githubusercontent.com/identity-md-launches/goal-3178-build-shared-evaluation-kit/45e7563d1a29ffca9d608fdf60c90bf2624d2d01/docs/score.md"],"commands":["mkdir -p test/scratch/amm","curl -LsSf https://raw.githubusercontent.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim/66604b3426d8e97a73e2c39940b9b4dece51cc73/research/tell/fetch.sh -o test/scratch/fetch.sh","sh test/scratch/fetch.sh https://raw.githubusercontent.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim/66604b3426d8e97a73e2c39940b9b4dece51cc73/research test/scratch/amm","curl -LsSf https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/f5a140f51df99423d6ede60b618dbc6eabc37a3050ac439c80dc3824191e9f59 -o test/scratch/baseartifact.json","python3 -c 'import json,base64,zlib,pathlib; x=json.load(open(\"test/scratch/baseartifact.json\")); pathlib.Path(\"test/scratch/amm/stalerival.py\").write_bytes(zlib.decompress(base64.b64decode(x[\"code_zb64\"])))'","python3 -c 'import json,base64,zlib,pathlib; x=json.load(open(\"artifacts/goal/batches/e02-rival-track/items/bayes-alpha/result.json\")); pathlib.Path(\"test/scratch/amm/bayes_alpha.py\").write_bytes(zlib.decompress(base64.b64decode(x[\"code_zb64\"])))'","cd test/scratch/amm && PROCS=2 python3 -I run.py bayes_alpha:Policy 64000 256 ../choose0.json soft=1 qm=qm_k1e-5.json a0=0.35 ainf=0.35 mode=0","cd test/scratch/amm && PROCS=2 python3 -I run.py bayes_alpha:Policy 64000 256 ../choose1.json soft=1 qm=qm_k1e-5.json a0=0.35 ainf=0.35 mode=1","cd test/scratch/amm && PROCS=2 python3 -I run.py bayes_alpha:Policy 64000 256 ../choose2.json soft=1 qm=qm_k1e-5.json a0=0.35 ainf=0.35 mode=2","cd test/scratch/amm && PROCS=2 python3 -I run.py bayes_alpha:Policy 64000 256 ../choose3.json soft=1 qm=qm_k1e-5.json a0=0.35 ainf=0.35 mode=3","cd test/scratch/amm && PROCS=2 python3 -I run.py bayes_alpha:Policy 64000 256 ../choose4.json soft=1 qm=qm_k1e-5.json a0=0.35 ainf=0.35 mode=4","cd test/scratch/amm && for block in $(seq 0 7); do seed=$((10000+64*block)); PROCS=2 python3 -I run.py bayes_alpha:Policy \"$seed\" 64 \"../report_0_${block}.json\" soft=1 qm=qm_k1e-5.json a0=0.35 ainf=0.35 mode=0; done","cd test/scratch/amm && for block in $(seq 0 7); do seed=$((10000+64*block)); PROCS=2 python3 -I run.py bayes_alpha:Policy \"$seed\" 64 \"../report_1_${block}.json\" soft=1 qm=qm_k1e-5.json a0=0.35 ainf=0.35 mode=1; done","cd test/scratch/amm && for block in $(seq 0 7); do seed=$((10000+64*block)); PROCS=2 python3 -I run.py bayes_alpha:Policy \"$seed\" 64 \"../report_2_${block}.json\" soft=1 qm=qm_k1e-5.json a0=0.35 ainf=0.35 mode=2; done","cd test/scratch/amm && for block in $(seq 0 7); do seed=$((10000+64*block)); PROCS=2 python3 -I run.py bayes_alpha:Policy \"$seed\" 64 \"../report_3_${block}.json\" soft=1 qm=qm_k1e-5.json a0=0.35 ainf=0.35 mode=3; done","cd test/scratch/amm && for block in $(seq 0 7); do seed=$((10000+64*block)); PROCS=2 python3 -I run.py bayes_alpha:Policy \"$seed\" 64 \"../report_4_${block}.json\" soft=1 qm=qm_k1e-5.json a0=0.35 ainf=0.35 mode=4; done"],"reference_fetch":{"files":34,"mismatched":0},"base_code_sha256":"176f8115fb67d99340f1de1e6994042dfaa41f830c22e000595df3377cc6a2b3","score_method":"kit score.summarize on unrounded exact paired edges; sample SE and 3-SE stop after each 64-seed block"},"rule":{"state_kept":"Taylor TellPolicy state m,v,s2h,synced,fees,own spot,reserves,timestamp,retail count, plus BASE WAD observations and exact-arithmetic arb tell; no new changing state. mode and cut are constants.","inputs":"Only side, integer/WAD-quantized amounts and reserves, timestamp, prior fees and policy state; no true price, rival spot, arb flag, or order index.","when":"On a read-as-retail fill, BASE first applies its binding min/max rival update. Only when cand/s2h has a nonbinding gap, replace constant alpha=0.35 by the arm alpha, set ln(s2h) += alpha*ln(cand/s2h), synced=true, and rerun the unchanged fee-table lookup.","cand":"s=reserveY/reserveX; if pool bought X, cand=s*(1-fb_old)/0.997, otherwise cand=s*0.997/(1-fa_old).","order_size":"q1=amountY when pool sold X; otherwise q1=amountX*exp(m). Let g=ln(cand/s2h) and r=s2h. For pool sold X, q2=1000*sqrt(r)*expm1(g/2)/0.997. For pool bought X, q2=1000*exp(m)/sqrt(r)*expm1(-g/2)/0.997.","posterior":"f(q)=exp(-(ln(q)-(ln(20)-0.72))^2/(2*1.2^2))/(q*1.2*sqrt(2*pi)). With equal prior weights for own-only and split hypotheses, Psplit=2*f(q1+q2)/(f(q1)+2*f(q1+q2)); compute by log-odds. This is an approximate point-estimate posterior, not integration over rival uncertainty.","arms":{"base":"alpha=0.35","raw":"alpha=Psplit","affine":"alpha=0.20+0.30*Psplit","clipped":"alpha=min(0.65,max(0.15,Psplit))","two_level":"alpha=0.20 if q1<20 Y else 0.60"},"basis_urls":["https://raw.githubusercontent.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim/66604b3426d8e97a73e2c39940b9b4dece51cc73/research/solved/replica2.py","https://raw.githubusercontent.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim/66604b3426d8e97a73e2c39940b9b4dece51cc73/research/solved/real.py","https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/f5a140f51df99423d6ede60b618dbc6eabc37a3050ac439c80dc3824191e9f59","https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/19bf5534225de5b3d201baaf0e35f9f2a8671120380295ea7726bf6379caedc1"]},"frozen":{"params":{"pick":"clipped","mode":3,"a0":0.35,"ainf":0.35,"soft":1,"qm":"qm_k1e-5.json","cut":20.0},"code_sha256":"bd0c21ea89a2baed09bd1b6d0595592351b3005edd3b02ddd6112dd370560f57","selection":"highest mean difference on 64000..64255; frozen before any report seed"},"choose":{"seeds":[64000,64255],"n":256,"table":[{"name":"base","mode":0,"n":256,"mean_diff":0.0,"se":0.0,"min":0.0},{"name":"raw","mode":1,"n":256,"mean_diff":0.0003545053051940972,"se":0.010891922625004925,"min":-0.5065424339029505},{"name":"affine","mode":2,"n":256,"mean_diff":-0.006193122145395025,"se":0.007213102113858569,"min":-0.4720954415616916},{"name":"clipped","mode":3,"n":256,"mean_diff":0.0032517222869843376,"se":0.010659393515202994,"min":-0.5104273272014552},{"name":"two_level","mode":4,"n":256,"mean_diff":-0.021031623712524983,"se":0.011983796650563702,"min":-0.7291778100395732}]},"report":{"seeds":[10000,10511],"n":512,"block_size":64,"arms":[{"name":"base","minus_base":{"mean_diff":0.0,"se":0.0,"min":0.0,"worst5":[{"seed":10000,"diff":0.0},{"seed":10001,"diff":0.0},{"seed":10002,"diff":0.0},{"seed":10003,"diff":0.0},{"seed":10004,"diff":0.0}]}},{"name":"raw","minus_base":{"mean_diff":-0.002759658556487965,"se":0.008572100426570322,"min":-0.8665402497538253,"worst5":[{"seed":10079,"diff":-0.8665402497538253},{"seed":10103,"diff":-0.6169085127759217},{"seed":10401,"diff":-0.5696696198067457},{"seed":10477,"diff":-0.56963972305266},{"seed":10105,"diff":-0.5577148357596116}]}},{"name":"affine","minus_base":{"mean_diff":-0.0018886150346367758,"se":0.005541066951518071,"min":-0.5168485485557994,"worst5":[{"seed":10105,"diff":-0.5168485485557994},{"seed":10355,"diff":-0.45476352592845615},{"seed":10207,"diff":-0.3463801070683985},{"seed":10404,"diff":-0.3166385896583961},{"seed":10464,"diff":-0.29593840221446044}]}},{"name":"clipped","minus_base":{"mean_diff":-0.0054349151107333515,"se":0.007823407986237353,"min":-0.8365935786390537,"worst5":[{"seed":10079,"diff":-0.8365935786390537},{"seed":10105,"diff":-0.6101080125040426},{"seed":10233,"diff":-0.5663778456680575},{"seed":10103,"diff":-0.5223464339379689},{"seed":10465,"diff":-0.5199090621772484}]}},{"name":"two_level","minus_base":{"mean_diff":-0.024452722261404936,"se":0.00827002417965202,"min":-1.031522210802791,"worst5":[{"seed":10030,"diff":-1.031522210802791},{"seed":10233,"diff":-0.7069409024227866},{"seed":10355,"diff":-0.6167437739379693},{"seed":10004,"diff":-0.5380514661494544},{"seed":10105,"diff":-0.5226231136164756}]}}]},"cost":{"extra_storage_words":0,"worst_ops_per_callback":{"arb_or_binding_retail":"one mode equality branch; no added posterior transcendental operations","nonbinding_retail_raw_affine_clipped":"over BASE: 3 log, 2 exp (price estimate and logistic), 1 sqrt, 1 expm1, one clip/affine map, and scalar arithmetic; no particle loop","nonbinding_retail_two_level":"same q2 and price work is presently computed, then size comparison; Python diagnostic, Solidity gas unmeasured"}},"diagnostics":{"base_parity":{"seeds":[64900,64907],"identical_full_rows":true,"method":"mode=0 vs stalerival:Policy with soft=1 qm=qm_k1e-5.json a0=ainf=0.35"},"hidden_input_garble":{"seeds":[64900,64901],"mode":3,"callbacks":[9484,12131],"garbled":["arb flag","true price","rival spot","order index"],"identical_fee_sequences_and_edges":true},"stop_two_level":{"n":576,"seeds":[10000,10575],"mean_diff":-0.02424720051614236,"se":0.007821193837503881,"mean_plus_3se":-0.00078361900363072,"dropped":true},"score_cli":"The score.py CLI rejects a custom BASE policy as a bank; its public summarize function was used directly on unrounded paired 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2048-seed common report: two_level met the early-stop rule at 576; report retains the common first 512.","No Solidity or engine evaluation in this Python-only item."],"failed":{"optional_score_cli":"Custom BASE baseline rejected as incompatible baseline backend/policy; recovered with score.summarize on unrounded pairs. All replica runs completed."}}