Retain NP2. This hard-cutoff candidate lost 2.617880 edge per seed (SE 0.037603) on the prescribed 2,000-seed confirmation block. Do not promote it. The full experimental source and exact edit are included below. **Reference and provenance.** NP2 was reconstructed from [TWO](https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/528a6da78583c6142644a552c86670f9d25c20e39e92f4de44deae05ddc8cecd) and the specified interior-retail block from [NP](https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/da313379a2e69e9286668865e06b18dfcae25732c82b934b0fd9c2ef0d8c2ff5). Its SHA-256 is `51f1c1a9d4999ee460eb8bbc66880da8074b173399a4f5d71f96671482e18ac0`. Local seed 0–999 means: NP2 `526.1155722459862`; [CH](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ChengHua926/amm-challenge/d34a5199c59a4c44d5336a25f1436b4ae1f21104/contracts/src/Strategy.sol) `525.5258821780834`, reproducing the required calibration. CH SHA-256: `6dd68f77a70900319460215374143dbd5d924198450a46d9f5f91f6b1e3d35c3`. These are measurements from this run, not externally certified scores. **Method.** Simulator commit `6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704`; solc 0.8.24, [optimizer 200 runs, viaIR, Paris](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/benedictbrady/amm-challenge/6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704/amm_competition/evm/compiler.py). [MatchRunner draw order](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/benedictbrady/amm-challenge/6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704/amm_competition/competition/match.py) and [build_config](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/benedictbrady/amm-challenge/6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704/amm_competition/competition/config.py): for each seed s, default_rng(s), draw size U(19,21), rate U(.6,1), sigma U(.000882,.001008), then build_config(seed=s, gbm_sigma=sigma, retail_arrival_rate=rate, retail_mean_size=size). Remaining fields use pinned defaults. Price seed s, retail seed s+1. Separate calls to amm_sim_rs.run_batch(candidate, vanilla, configs, 8) and run_batch(NP2, vanilla, configs, 8), each call at most 20 seeds; never candidate against NP2 in one market. [Vanilla](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/benedictbrady/amm-challenge/6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704/contracts/src/VanillaStrategy.sol) uses 30 bps. Difference is candidate submission edge minus NP2 submission edge; SE is sample standard deviation (ddof=1) / sqrt(n). Worst means the five smallest paired differences. For split reporting only, scratch instrumentation adds arb_edges and retail_edges maps alongside the existing [edge accumulation](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/benedictbrady/amm-challenge/6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704/amm_sim_rs/src/simulation/engine.rs); no market logic changes. Arb edge adds -arb_result.profit; retail edge adds the existing trade_edge. A 20-seed comparison against the original binary gave maximum total-edge difference 0 and maximum |total-arb-retail| of 2.5011104298755527e-12. The final split and total come from the same confirmation calls. **Tuning selection.** Point order throughout is `[T, wA, wR, STALE_DIR_COEF/BPS, STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC/WAD, require_zero_silent_steps]`. The silent-step condition is trade.timestamp <= lastTs + 1. The cutoff uses the pre-update sigmaHat and ret=abs(pImplied-pHat)/pHat, with WAD integer arithmetic. When the condition fails, the first-print weight is wR. All later-print estimator rules remain intact; later fee values can change because pHat changes. On first prints the hard cutoff replaces the previous broad update gate. On later prints the existing broad gate remains. Tuning stayed in 10000–99999, at most 256 distinct seeds per point. No confirmation seeds were used to choose parameters. An initial harness retained the old broad gate on first prints; those exploratory partial sweeps were stopped, corrected, and excluded from selection and the tables below. Each table below uses the corrected implementation. Repeated seeds are deterministic evaluations, not extra independent observations. Selected tuning record: ```json { "point": [ 1.75, 0.5, 0.1, 6500, 1.0, true ], "seed_ranges": [ [ 11000, 11127 ] ], "n": 128, "mean_diff": -2.7617748071929062, "se": 0.11534327807566255, "sha256": "1d6caffa20118bf818b13944631cf28ac2a37210bb1382da28e87d67ba9b1b35", "selection": "Highest paired mean on the common 11000..11127 tuning block among shortlisted points; frozen before confirmation." } ``` **Paired confirmation.** Frozen candidate evaluated once on seeds 2790000–2791999. No further tuning after this confirmation. Arb edge improved by 2.008161084, while retail edge declined by 4.626040808; the retail loss outweighed the arb improvement. ```json { "sha256": "1d6caffa20118bf818b13944631cf28ac2a37210bb1382da28e87d67ba9b1b35", "seed_start": 2790000, "seed_end": 2791999, "n": 2000, "mean_diff": -2.617879723949362, "se": 0.03760256971849679, "candidate_mean_edge": 521.6977782920429, "np2_mean_edge": 524.3156580159923, "worst_5": [ { "seed": 2790762, "candidate_edge": 631.077081260472, "np2_edge": 643.3830647174167, "diff": -12.30598345694466 }, { "seed": 2790903, "candidate_edge": 624.9251004270272, "np2_edge": 633.6112308761537, "diff": -8.686130449126495 }, { "seed": 2791918, "candidate_edge": 658.9939677317419, "np2_edge": 667.1508353168499, "diff": -8.156867585107989 }, { "seed": 2790659, "candidate_edge": 633.7259241674127, "np2_edge": 641.4501695921329, "diff": -7.724245424720152 }, { "seed": 2791945, "candidate_edge": 659.5045834653032, "np2_edge": 667.0578296553673, "diff": -7.553246190064101 } ], "split": { "unit": "mean submission edge per seed", "candidate": { "arb_edge": -28.91390099032569, "retail_edge": 550.6116792823686 }, "NP2": { "arb_edge": -30.922062074246444, "retail_edge": 555.2377200902389 } }, "max_split_residual": 5.229594535194337e-12, "wall_seconds": 277.969810962677 } ``` **Checks.** Official strategy validation passed. Exact pHat tests cover both trade sides, both move directions, threshold neighbors, large first-print returns, silent gaps, and later-print behavior. Additional constant-product stress trades use varied sizes, sides and timestamp gaps. Gas below is read from pyrevm EVM.result.gas_used, not the executor's estimate. Synthetic checks do not establish universal safety or leaderboard performance. ```json { "exact_phat_cases": 80, "stress_calls": 3000, "total_calls": 3080, "initialization_gas": 189944, "max_after_swap_gas": 132746, "gas_limit": 250000, "all_success": true } ``` **Delta (exact unified diff against reconstructed NP2).** ```diff --- NP2.sol +++ Strategy.sol @@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ uint256 constant GATE_SIGMA_MULT = 7200000000000000000; uint256 constant MIN_GATE = 30000000000000000; uint256 constant TRADE_TOX_BOOST = 3500 * BPS; - uint256 constant STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC = 1050000000000000000; + uint256 constant STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC = 1000000000000000000; uint256 constant RET_CAP = WAD / 35; uint256 constant TOX_CAP = WAD / 5; uint256 constant TRADE_RATIO_CAP = WAD / 5; @@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ uint256 constant ACT_COEF = 91843 * BPS; uint256 constant DIR_COEF = 20 * BPS; uint256 constant DIR_TOX_COEF = 100 * BPS; - uint256 constant STALE_DIR_COEF = 6850 * BPS; + uint256 constant STALE_DIR_COEF = 6500 * BPS; uint256 constant SIGMA_TOX_COEF = 500 * BPS; uint256 constant TAIL_KNEE = 600 * BPS; uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT = 930000000000000000; @@ -88,6 +88,10 @@ { uint256 ret = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(pImplied, pHat), pHat) : 0; uint256 alpha = firstInStep ? PHAT_ALPHA : PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL; + if (firstInStep) { + bool likelyArb = ret <= wmul(sigmaHat, 1750000000000000000) && trade.timestamp <= lastTs + 1; + alpha = likelyArb ? 500000000000000000 : 100000000000000000; + } uint256 prePhat = pHat; bool secondPrint = !firstInStep && stepTradeCount == 1; bool sameDir = false; bool oppDir = false; @@ -100,7 +104,7 @@ if (firstInStep) { slots[11] = pHat; slots[12] = pImplied >= pHat ? 1 : 2; } uint256 adaptiveGate = wmul(sigmaHat, GATE_SIGMA_MULT); if (adaptiveGate < MIN_GATE) adaptiveGate = MIN_GATE; - if (ret <= adaptiveGate) { pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - alpha) + wmul(pImplied, alpha); } + if (firstInStep || ret <= adaptiveGate) { pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - alpha) + wmul(pImplied, alpha); } if (oppDir && REVERT_U > 0) { uint256 pre = slots[11]; if (pre > pHat) pHat = pHat + wmul(pre - pHat, REVERT_U); ``` **Code SHA-256.** `1d6caffa20118bf818b13944631cf28ac2a37210bb1382da28e87d67ba9b1b35`. Hash the UTF-8 contents of the following Solidity block, including its final LF and excluding the Markdown fences. **Code — full Strategy.sol.** ```solidity // SPDX-License-Identifier: MIT pragma solidity ^0.8.24; import {AMMStrategyBase} from "./AMMStrategyBase.sol"; import {TradeInfo} from "./IAMMStrategy.sol"; contract Strategy is AMMStrategyBase { uint256 constant ELAPSED_CAP = 8; uint256 constant SIGNAL_THRESHOLD = WAD / 650; uint256 constant DIR_DECAY = 750000000000000000; uint256 constant ACT_DECAY = 530000000000000000; uint256 constant SIZE_DECAY = 530000000000000000; uint256 constant TOX_DECAY = 910000000000000000; uint256 constant SIGMA_DECAY = 690000000000000000; uint256 constant LAMBDA_DECAY = 990000000000000000; uint256 constant SIZE_BLEND_DECAY = 828000000000000000; uint256 constant TOX_BLEND_DECAY = 51000000000000000; uint256 constant ACT_BLEND_DECAY = 985000000000000000; uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA = 270000000000000000; uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL = 60000000000000000; uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_SAME = 120000000000000000; uint256 constant REVERT_U = 0; uint256 constant DIR_IMPACT_MULT = 4; uint256 constant GATE_SIGMA_MULT = 7200000000000000000; uint256 constant MIN_GATE = 30000000000000000; uint256 constant TRADE_TOX_BOOST = 3500 * BPS; uint256 constant STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC = 1000000000000000000; uint256 constant RET_CAP = WAD / 35; uint256 constant TOX_CAP = WAD / 5; uint256 constant TRADE_RATIO_CAP = WAD / 5; uint256 constant LAMBDA_CAP = 1820000000000000000; uint256 constant STEP_COUNT_CAP = 64; uint256 constant BASE_FEE = 4 * BPS; uint256 constant SIGMA_COEF = 200000000000000000; uint256 constant LAMBDA_COEF = 12 * BPS; uint256 constant FLOW_SIZE_COEF = 4842 * BPS; uint256 constant TOX_COEF = 300 * BPS; uint256 constant TOX_QUAD_COEF = 15000 * BPS; uint256 constant ACT_COEF = 91843 * BPS; uint256 constant DIR_COEF = 20 * BPS; uint256 constant DIR_TOX_COEF = 100 * BPS; uint256 constant STALE_DIR_COEF = 6500 * BPS; uint256 constant SIGMA_TOX_COEF = 500 * BPS; uint256 constant TAIL_KNEE = 600 * BPS; uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT = 930000000000000000; uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT = 850000000000000000; function afterInitialize(uint256 initialX, uint256 initialY) external override returns (uint256, uint256) { slots[0] = BASE_FEE; slots[1] = BASE_FEE; slots[2] = 0; slots[3] = WAD; slots[4] = 0; slots[5] = initialX > 0 ? wdiv(initialY, initialX) : 100 * WAD; slots[6] = 950000000000000; slots[7] = 800000000000000000; slots[8] = 2000000000000000; slots[9] = 0; slots[10] = 0; slots[11] = 0; slots[12] = 0; return (BASE_FEE, BASE_FEE); } function afterSwap(TradeInfo calldata trade) external override returns (uint256, uint256) { uint256 prevBidFee = slots[0]; uint256 prevAskFee = slots[1]; uint256 lastTs = slots[2]; uint256 dirState = slots[3]; uint256 actEma = slots[4]; uint256 pHat = slots[5]; uint256 sigmaHat = slots[6]; uint256 lambdaHat = slots[7]; uint256 sizeHat = slots[8]; uint256 toxEma = slots[9]; uint256 stepTradeCount = slots[10]; bool isNewStep = trade.timestamp > lastTs; if (isNewStep) { uint256 elapsedRaw = trade.timestamp - lastTs; uint256 elapsed = elapsedRaw > ELAPSED_CAP ? ELAPSED_CAP : elapsedRaw; dirState = _decayCentered(dirState, DIR_DECAY, elapsed); actEma = wmul(actEma, _powWad(ACT_DECAY, elapsed)); sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, _powWad(SIZE_DECAY, elapsed)); toxEma = wmul(toxEma, _powWad(TOX_DECAY, elapsed)); if (stepTradeCount > 0 && elapsedRaw > 0) { uint256 lambdaInst = (stepTradeCount * WAD) / elapsedRaw; if (lambdaInst > LAMBDA_CAP) lambdaInst = LAMBDA_CAP; lambdaHat = wmul(lambdaHat, LAMBDA_DECAY) + wmul(lambdaInst, WAD - LAMBDA_DECAY); } stepTradeCount = 0; } bool firstInStep = stepTradeCount == 0; uint256 spot = trade.reserveX > 0 ? wdiv(trade.reserveY, trade.reserveX) : pHat; if (pHat == 0) pHat = spot; uint256 feeUsed = trade.isBuy ? prevBidFee : prevAskFee; uint256 gamma = feeUsed < WAD ? WAD - feeUsed : 0; uint256 pImplied; if (gamma == 0) { pImplied = spot; } else { pImplied = trade.isBuy ? wmul(spot, gamma) : wdiv(spot, gamma); } { uint256 ret = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(pImplied, pHat), pHat) : 0; uint256 alpha = firstInStep ? PHAT_ALPHA : PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL; if (firstInStep) { bool likelyArb = ret <= wmul(sigmaHat, 1750000000000000000) && trade.timestamp <= lastTs + 1; alpha = likelyArb ? 500000000000000000 : 100000000000000000; } uint256 prePhat = pHat; bool secondPrint = !firstInStep && stepTradeCount == 1; bool sameDir = false; bool oppDir = false; if (secondPrint) { bool up2 = pImplied >= pHat; uint256 d1 = slots[12]; if (d1 != 0) { sameDir = (d1 == 1) == up2; oppDir = !sameDir; } if (sameDir) alpha = PHAT_ALPHA_SAME; } if (firstInStep) { slots[11] = pHat; slots[12] = pImplied >= pHat ? 1 : 2; } uint256 adaptiveGate = wmul(sigmaHat, GATE_SIGMA_MULT); if (adaptiveGate < MIN_GATE) adaptiveGate = MIN_GATE; if (firstInStep || ret <= adaptiveGate) { pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - alpha) + wmul(pImplied, alpha); } if (oppDir && REVERT_U > 0) { uint256 pre = slots[11]; if (pre > pHat) pHat = pHat + wmul(pre - pHat, REVERT_U); else pHat = pHat - wmul(pHat - pre, REVERT_U); } if (firstInStep) { if (ret > RET_CAP) ret = RET_CAP; sigmaHat = wmul(sigmaHat, SIGMA_DECAY) + wmul(ret, WAD - SIGMA_DECAY); } } // Interior retail routing equalizes fee-adjusted marginal prices. // Subsequent trades in a step cannot be the initial arbitrage trade. if (!firstInStep && feeUsed > 30 * BPS && gamma > 0) { uint256 normalSpot = trade.isBuy ? wdiv(wmul(spot, gamma), WAD - 30 * BPS) : wdiv(wmul(spot, WAD - 30 * BPS), gamma); pHat = wmul(pHat, 90 * WAD / 100) + wmul(normalSpot, 10 * WAD / 100); } uint256 tradeRatio = trade.reserveY > 0 ? wdiv(trade.amountY, trade.reserveY) : 0; if (tradeRatio > TRADE_RATIO_CAP) tradeRatio = TRADE_RATIO_CAP; if (tradeRatio > SIGNAL_THRESHOLD) { uint256 push = tradeRatio * DIR_IMPACT_MULT; if (push > WAD / 4) push = WAD / 4; if (trade.isBuy) { dirState = dirState + push; if (dirState > 2 * WAD) dirState = 2 * WAD; } else { dirState = dirState > push ? dirState - push : 0; } actEma = wmul(actEma, ACT_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - ACT_BLEND_DECAY); sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, SIZE_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - SIZE_BLEND_DECAY); if (sizeHat > WAD) sizeHat = WAD; } uint256 tox = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(spot, pHat), pHat) : 0; if (tox > TOX_CAP) tox = TOX_CAP; toxEma = wmul(toxEma, TOX_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tox, WAD - TOX_BLEND_DECAY); uint256 toxSignal = toxEma; stepTradeCount = stepTradeCount + 1; if (stepTradeCount > STEP_COUNT_CAP) stepTradeCount = STEP_COUNT_CAP; uint256 flowSize = wmul(lambdaHat, sizeHat); uint256 fBase = BASE_FEE + wmul(SIGMA_COEF, sigmaHat) + wmul(LAMBDA_COEF, lambdaHat) + wmul(FLOW_SIZE_COEF, flowSize); uint256 fMid = fBase + wmul(TOX_COEF, toxSignal) + wmul(TOX_QUAD_COEF, wmul(toxSignal, toxSignal)) + wmul(ACT_COEF, actEma); fMid = fMid + wmul(SIGMA_TOX_COEF, wmul(sigmaHat, toxSignal)); uint256 dirDev; bool sellPressure; if (dirState >= WAD) { dirDev = dirState - WAD; sellPressure = true; } else { dirDev = WAD - dirState; sellPressure = false; } uint256 skew = wmul(DIR_COEF, dirDev) + wmul(DIR_TOX_COEF, wmul(dirDev, toxSignal)); uint256 bidFee; uint256 askFee; if (sellPressure) { bidFee = fMid + skew; askFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0; } else { askFee = fMid + skew; bidFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0; } { uint256 staleShift = wmul(STALE_DIR_COEF, toxSignal); uint256 attractShift = wmul(staleShift, STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC); if (spot >= pHat) { bidFee = bidFee + staleShift; askFee = askFee > attractShift ? askFee - attractShift : 0; } else { askFee = askFee + staleShift; bidFee = bidFee > attractShift ? bidFee - attractShift : 0; } } { bool tradeAligned = (trade.isBuy && spot >= pHat) || (!trade.isBuy && spot < pHat); if (tradeAligned) { uint256 tradeBoost = wmul(TRADE_TOX_BOOST, tradeRatio); if (trade.isBuy) { bidFee = bidFee + tradeBoost; } else { askFee = askFee + tradeBoost; } } } if (sellPressure) { bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT)); askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT)); } else { askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT)); bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT)); } slots[0] = bidFee; slots[1] = askFee; slots[2] = trade.timestamp; slots[3] = dirState; slots[4] = actEma; slots[5] = pHat; slots[6] = sigmaHat; slots[7] = lambdaHat; slots[8] = sizeHat; slots[9] = toxEma; slots[10] = stepTradeCount; return (bidFee, askFee); } function _compressTailWithSlope(uint256 fee, uint256 slope) internal pure returns (uint256) { if (fee <= TAIL_KNEE) return fee; return TAIL_KNEE + wmul(fee - TAIL_KNEE, slope); } function _powWad(uint256 factor, uint256 exp) internal pure returns (uint256 result) { result = WAD; while (exp > 0) { if (exp & 1 == 1) result = wmul(result, factor); factor = wmul(factor, factor); exp >>= 1; } } function _decayCentered(uint256 centered, uint256 decayFactor, uint256 elapsed) internal pure returns (uint256) { uint256 mul = _powWad(decayFactor, elapsed); if (centered >= WAD) { return WAD + wmul(centered - WAD, mul); } uint256 below = wmul(WAD - centered, mul); return below < WAD ? WAD - below : 0; } function getName() external pure override returns (string memory) { return "no_cubic"; } } ``` **Tuning measurements.** Values below are local paired measurements; rounded table entries do not replace the full-precision selected/confirmation records above. **Main cutoff grid.** Seeds 10000–10079. | Point | n | mean_diff | se | |---|---:|---:|---:| | `[0.8,0.5,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -107.291761167 | 4.463803617 | | `[0.8,0.5,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -25.434367810 | 0.531990595 | | `[0.8,0.5,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -11.235404084 | 0.271126254 | | `[0.8,0.75,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -144.508205807 | 5.169369291 | | `[0.8,0.75,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -38.188350362 | 0.776756715 | | `[0.8,0.75,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -18.571101562 | 0.428382344 | | `[0.8,1.0,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -170.976812465 | 5.157587450 | | `[0.8,1.0,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -53.428230877 | 0.926733092 | | `[0.8,1.0,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -27.942820670 | 0.553767126 | | `[1.0,0.5,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -106.986764744 | 4.946694479 | | `[1.0,0.5,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -21.828732042 | 0.572620739 | | `[1.0,0.5,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -9.424438209 | 0.291218026 | | `[1.0,0.75,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -145.309526479 | 5.420526945 | | `[1.0,0.75,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -37.284383753 | 0.744543274 | | `[1.0,0.75,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -18.842626603 | 0.454986604 | | `[1.0,1.0,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -178.054069520 | 5.536542910 | | `[1.0,1.0,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -53.884059050 | 1.024466795 | | `[1.0,1.0,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -30.385860204 | 0.625361726 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -57.749562576 | 3.471447258 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -14.288782640 | 0.374330106 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -7.348187188 | 0.292979888 | | `[1.22,0.75,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -99.921824737 | 4.676360720 | | `[1.22,0.75,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -27.421514737 | 0.679496704 | | `[1.22,0.75,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -16.861306248 | 0.456946981 | | `[1.22,1.0,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -153.906780296 | 5.771269255 | | `[1.22,1.0,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -44.948981319 | 1.118853129 | | `[1.22,1.0,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -30.336475657 | 0.652727674 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -22.567108887 | 1.256201357 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -9.732808001 | 0.334403183 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -6.149517140 | 0.270073640 | | `[1.5,0.75,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -46.331742893 | 3.043897301 | | `[1.5,0.75,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -21.667369008 | 0.521039744 | | `[1.5,0.75,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -15.873607771 | 0.416507830 | | `[1.5,1.0,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -80.113517204 | 4.517405015 | | `[1.5,1.0,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -39.727067643 | 0.862057861 | | `[1.5,1.0,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -32.717080161 | 0.712202061 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -11.742031481 | 0.427606350 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -7.136364361 | 0.285696272 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -5.317654240 | 0.232168703 | | `[2.0,0.75,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -25.142768911 | 0.631635814 | | `[2.0,0.75,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -19.579175578 | 0.499127296 | | `[2.0,0.75,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -17.296296024 | 0.450140299 | | `[2.0,1.0,0.0,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -55.270666045 | 2.703692645 | | `[2.0,1.0,0.05,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -43.446777096 | 0.941087858 | | `[2.0,1.0,0.1,6850,1.05,false]` | 80 | -39.580962117 | 0.793473333 | **Zero-silent-step cutoff grid.** Seeds 10240–10303. | Point | n | mean_diff | se | |---|---:|---:|---:| | `[0.8,0.5,0.0,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -67.038294662 | 3.988711627 | | `[0.8,0.5,0.1,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -7.935191973 | 0.240672606 | | `[0.8,0.75,0.0,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -78.364886431 | 3.813238108 | | `[0.8,0.75,0.1,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -11.408356556 | 0.284437318 | | `[0.8,1.0,0.0,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -88.320375643 | 5.151972537 | | `[0.8,1.0,0.1,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -15.410313816 | 0.313319521 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.0,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -34.269518654 | 3.539969374 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.1,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -4.629042273 | 0.206324742 | | `[1.22,0.75,0.0,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -44.871502477 | 3.240022405 | | `[1.22,0.75,0.1,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -10.079073284 | 0.302779149 | | `[1.22,1.0,0.0,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -60.316654275 | 4.951837713 | | `[1.22,1.0,0.1,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -17.132455817 | 0.444785378 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.0,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -11.558627865 | 0.810328810 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -3.725106753 | 0.173225982 | | `[2.0,0.75,0.0,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -19.309665100 | 0.699296943 | | `[2.0,0.75,0.1,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -10.861427020 | 0.341923824 | | `[2.0,1.0,0.0,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -32.747201825 | 0.883366898 | | `[2.0,1.0,0.1,6850,1.05,true]` | 64 | -21.838090219 | 0.564963352 | **Wide stale-coefficient retuning.** Seeds 10100–10219. | Point | n | mean_diff | se | |---|---:|---:|---:| | `[1.0,0.5,0.1,3500,1.05,false]` | 120 | -32.956371177 | 0.658916056 | | `[1.0,0.5,0.1,10000,1.05,false]` | 120 | -294.251132882 | 5.358774265 | | `[1.0,0.5,0.1,6850,0.7,false]` | 120 | -10.180750951 | 0.231270733 | | `[1.0,0.5,0.1,6850,1.4,false]` | 120 | -10.621422779 | 0.224481441 | | `[1.0,0.5,0.1,3500,1.05,true]` | 120 | -32.764097040 | 0.664297845 | | `[1.0,0.5,0.1,10000,1.05,true]` | 120 | -145.271690981 | 4.041401777 | | `[1.0,0.5,0.1,6850,0.7,true]` | 120 | -6.359738409 | 0.185550220 | | `[1.0,0.5,0.1,6850,1.4,true]` | 120 | -7.203040641 | 0.194447440 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.1,3500,1.05,false]` | 120 | -32.112946335 | 0.650079145 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.1,10000,1.05,false]` | 120 | -306.413496080 | 5.624677949 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.1,6850,0.7,false]` | 120 | -7.829755450 | 0.200324090 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.1,6850,1.4,false]` | 120 | -8.682257503 | 0.209574391 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.1,3500,1.05,true]` | 120 | -31.945405214 | 0.652842672 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.1,10000,1.05,true]` | 120 | -147.565433166 | 4.122769977 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.1,6850,0.7,true]` | 120 | -4.619135392 | 0.176178222 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.1,6850,1.4,true]` | 120 | -5.587260818 | 0.187018235 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.1,3500,1.05,false]` | 120 | -31.976619404 | 0.647932082 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.1,10000,1.05,false]` | 120 | -308.304494791 | 5.457290967 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.1,6850,0.7,false]` | 120 | -6.403351706 | 0.194420340 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.1,6850,1.4,false]` | 120 | -7.039990259 | 0.186651208 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.1,3500,1.05,true]` | 120 | -31.656973337 | 0.648895028 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.1,10000,1.05,true]` | 120 | -147.131398851 | 4.042875061 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.1,6850,0.7,true]` | 120 | -3.852733376 | 0.175834605 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.1,6850,1.4,true]` | 120 | -4.692577645 | 0.164116158 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,3500,1.05,false]` | 120 | -32.836373221 | 0.651672606 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,10000,1.05,false]` | 120 | -303.307123871 | 6.054312967 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,6850,0.7,false]` | 120 | -6.022430395 | 0.190795614 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,6850,1.4,false]` | 120 | -6.167020794 | 0.164076758 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,3500,1.05,true]` | 120 | -32.091327678 | 0.656846948 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,10000,1.05,true]` | 120 | -149.832378706 | 4.216657355 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,6850,0.7,true]` | 120 | -3.833038858 | 0.167110074 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,6850,1.4,true]` | 120 | -4.219164980 | 0.161374473 | **Local stale-coefficient retuning.** Seeds 11000–11127. | Point | n | mean_diff | se | |---|---:|---:|---:| | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,5000,0.8,true]` | 128 | -11.098722978 | 0.286160125 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,5000,1.0,true]` | 128 | -9.766298264 | 0.279086068 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,5000,1.2,true]` | 128 | -9.847504836 | 0.278699461 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,5750,0.8,true]` | 128 | -4.928518054 | 0.176441604 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,5750,1.0,true]` | 128 | -4.299345121 | 0.163537502 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,5750,1.2,true]` | 128 | -4.609602543 | 0.161244495 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,6500,0.8,true]` | 128 | -2.970891075 | 0.128633222 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,6500,1.0,true]` | 128 | -2.761774807 | 0.115343278 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,6500,1.2,true]` | 128 | -3.053758508 | 0.117733982 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,7250,0.8,true]` | 128 | -5.585157115 | 0.234789552 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,7250,1.0,true]` | 128 | -5.652485597 | 0.235558497 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,7250,1.2,true]` | 128 | -6.145152675 | 0.237965518 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,8000,0.8,true]` | 128 | -22.511396967 | 0.887369709 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,8000,1.0,true]` | 128 | -22.819240758 | 0.872704338 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,8000,1.2,true]` | 128 | -23.347331139 | 0.872860005 | **Final tuning comparison.** Seed ranges are recorded per row. | Point | n | mean_diff | se | |---|---:|---:|---:| | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,6850,1.05,false]; seeds [[11000, 11127]]` | 128 | -5.669454630 | 0.184193518 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.1,6850,1.05,false]; seeds [[11000, 11127]]` | 128 | -6.423077490 | 0.194789739 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,6850,1.05,true]; seeds [[11000, 11127]]` | 128 | -3.572940496 | 0.148703801 | | `[1.22,0.5,0.1,6850,1.05,true]; seeds [[11000, 11127]]` | 128 | -4.772796680 | 0.161892543 | | `[2.0,0.5,0.1,6850,0.7,true]; seeds [[11000, 11127]]` | 128 | -3.993640002 | 0.167512311 | | `[1.5,0.5,0.1,6850,0.7,true]; seeds [[11000, 11127]]` | 128 | -4.011386580 | 0.173370445 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,6500,1.0,true]; seeds [[11000, 11127]]` | 128 | -2.761774807 | 0.115343278 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,6500,0.8,true]; seeds [[11000, 11127]]` | 128 | -2.970891075 | 0.128633222 | | `[1.75,0.5,0.1,6500,1.2,true]; seeds [[11000, 11127]]` | 128 | -3.053758508 | 0.117733982 | **blocked:** null. Setup completed successfully; no requester input is missing. **next:** Retain NP2; reject this cutoff point for promotion. Before pursuing this mechanism further, test a probabilistic first-print filter with a separate volatility estimate, using new tuning seeds and a newly reserved confirmation block. No claim of a leaderboard gain is made here.