{"key": "s3-recollateralize", "approach": "Spread 3 only (guarded by self.s == 3). A kept ask strictly inside the rival ask (tick < ca) with ledger-uncovered size, when current YES beyond other kept asks' cover plus a 0.1 margin can cover at least 0.01 shares and at least $0.05 of collateral, is cancelled and reposted at the same tick and full remaining size, ahead tag preserved, reposts placed before other orders. Selected variant fires only when cash binds: free - (1-fu)*cash < cash needed for this step's target quote additions. Asks at the rival's tick are never reposted: they would queue behind the rival and lose the ahead tag, moving the next step's price.", "tried": ["Diagnostics on B, 53 spread-3 tuning seeds, means per 2000-step run: free_cash<200 on 13.91 steps, <50 on 7.75, <10 on 6.89; coverable uncovered asks 173.02 order-steps inside the rival (ledger release $2112.69 summed over steps, repeat-counting orders) and 124.23 at the rival's tick; final-step cash 771.32.", "Variant C1, always repost inside asks, sha256 8ddeade0cec465257f0fe4102e35cdc82ddf58012cd66b6ed89dfa5d35a5c78e: tuning in tuning.variants.C1; 797 counted reposts on 53 spread-3 runs, results differ from B on 24 of 53 spread-3 seeds.", "Variant C2, cash-binding gate (frozen as C by higher tuning mean_diff): 61 counted reposts on the same 53 runs, results differ from B on 2 of 53 spread-3 tuning seeds.", "Checks on tuning seeds: reposts take tick and size directly from the cancelled order in code; a wrapper counted 61 C2 and 797 C1 same-step cancel/repost pairs of equal tick and size, with none losing the ahead tag, cancels always before placements, and no failures. Those counts are of matched pairs and were not reconciled against an independent repost count. Constructed-book check on the simulator: a 10-share ask at tick 40 reserves $6.00 uncovered, and $0 with reserved_yes 10 after cancel/repost with 10.2 YES. Ledger was not compared with the market's reserved cash on live runs.", "Observed spread-specific guard: on all tuning and holdout seeds with s in 1,2,4, C and B total_edge are exactly equal."], "next": "No evidence of a general gain: holdout +0.327 (SE 0.313). Only 5 of 138 spread-3 seeds differ from B, and seed 410361 alone gives d=+156.44 of the total sum_d +163.31; without it the other 4 sum to +6.87. Tuning was slightly negative on 2 of 53 spread-3 seeds. Cash rarely binds on spread 3, so the mechanism seldom fires. Do not promote on this result. Worth checking next: why seed 410361 moved so much, and thousands more seeds, since rare large wins decide this mechanism's mean.", "code": "\"\"\"Exact per-spread merge: c1-pairs, c2-queue, a3-ledger, c4-all; no fixes.\"\"\"\nimport math\nfrom orderbook_pm_challenge.strategy import BaseStrategy\nfrom orderbook_pm_challenge.types import CancelOrder, PlaceOrder, Side\n\ndef _spread1():\n    P = dict(lam_r=0.25, m=5.0, sig_n=1.2, lam_j=0.0019, sig_j=0.35, sig=0.02, qmax=3000.0, rmin=2, kA=0.7, kL=0.15, pL=0.05, ammo=1.0, ydem=0.4, W=200.0, fy=0.6, ammo_q=60.0, ammo_pmax=0.05, ammo_maxpay=0.02, fb=0.9, fu=0.7, xu=0.1, sticky=1.0, min_ahead=2.0, keep_hi=1.5, keep_lo=0.7, Hu=300.0, bins=8.0, filt=1.0, uni=0.01, jumpinfo=1.0, dmin=0.0, kLb=0.08, kLf=0.08, pinf=1.0, pre=0.0, H1=100.0, ydf=0.6, Wf=2000.0, g_hi=0.15, g_lo=0.15, qf=400.0, pmaxf=0.05, pre_gap=1.0, ydf1=0.6, g1=5.0, f1=0.6, a1=100.0, nb1=0.0, gs=1.0, p1t=1.0, m1=1.0, zd=1.0, pfl=0.0005)\n    SQ2 = math.sqrt(2.0)\n    SQ2PI = math.sqrt(2.0 * math.pi)\n\n    def cdf(x):\n        return 0.5 * (1.0 + math.erf(x / SQ2))\n\n    def pdf(x):\n        return math.exp(-0.5 * x * x) / SQ2PI\n\n    def inv(p):\n        p = min(max(p, 1e-09), 1 - 1e-09)\n        t = math.sqrt(-2.0 * math.log(min(p, 1 - p)))\n        x = t - (2.515517 + 0.802853 * t + 0.010328 * t * t) / (1 + 1.432788 * t + 0.189269 * t * t + 0.001308 * t ** 3)\n        x = -x if p < 0.5 else x\n        for _ in range(2):\n            d = pdf(x)\n            if d < 1e-12:\n                break\n            x -= (cdf(x) - p) / d\n        return x\n\n    def lpm(k):\n        return pdf(k) + k * cdf(k)\n\n    def fl(q):\n        return math.floor(q * 100 + 1e-09) / 100\n    NODES = [(-2.2, 0.06), (-1.3, 0.17), (-0.6, 0.27), (0.6, 0.27), (1.3, 0.17), (2.2, 0.06)]\n    PROBE = 0.01\n    F_AH = 1\n    F_FL = 1\n    F_QB = 1\n    F_LK = 0\n    F_SB = 0\n    FLOW_CAPS = (0.03125, 0.0625, 0.125, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 8.0, 16.0, 32.0, 64.0, 128.0, 256.0)\n    FLOW_GRID = []\n    FLOW_PRIORS = []\n    for _rn, _rw in ((-math.sqrt(0.6), 5 / 18), (0.0, 4 / 9), (math.sqrt(0.6), 5 / 18)):\n        _r = 0.1265 + 0.0495 * _rn\n        for _mn, _mw in ((-0.906179845938664, 0.118463442528095), (-0.538469310105683, 0.239314335249683), (0.0, 0.284444444444444), (0.538469310105683, 0.239314335249683), (0.906179845938664, 0.118463442528095)):\n            _m = 4.488 + 1.848 * _mn\n            _parts = []\n            for _n in (1, 2, 3):\n                _v = math.log(1 + (math.exp(1.44) - 1) / _n)\n                _sg = math.sqrt(_v)\n                _mu = math.log(_n * _m) - _v / 2\n                _w = _r ** _n / math.factorial(_n)\n                _parts.append((_mu, _sg, _w))\n            _norm = []\n            for _c in FLOW_CAPS:\n                _prob = sum((w * (cdf((math.log(_c) - mu) / sg) - cdf((math.log(0.03) - mu) / sg)) for mu, sg, w in _parts))\n                _norm.append(math.log1p(_prob))\n            _tails = []\n            for _c in FLOW_CAPS:\n                _cdf = 1 + sum((w * cdf((math.log(_c) - mu) / sg) for mu, sg, w in _parts))\n                _tails.append(math.log(max(1e-100, 1 - math.exp(-_r) * _cdf)))\n            FLOW_GRID.append((_r, _m, _parts, _norm, _tails))\n            FLOW_PRIORS.append(math.log(_rw * _mw))\n    return (P, cdf, pdf, inv, lpm, fl, NODES, PROBE, F_AH, F_FL, F_QB, F_LK, F_SB, FLOW_CAPS, FLOW_GRID, FLOW_PRIORS)\n\ndef _spread2():\n    P = dict(lam_r=0.25, m=5.0, sig_n=1.2, lam_j=0.0019, sig_j=0.35, sig=0.02, qmax=3000.0, rmin=2, kA=0.7, kL=0.15, pL=0.05, ammo=1.0, ydem=0.4, W=200.0, fy=0.6, ammo_q=60.0, ammo_pmax=0.05, ammo_maxpay=0.02, fb=0.9, fu=0.7, xu=0.1, sticky=1.0, min_ahead=2.0, keep_hi=1.5, keep_lo=0.7, Hu=300.0, bins=8.0, filt=1.0, uni=0.01, jumpinfo=1.0, dmin=0.0, kLb=0.08, kLf=0.08, pinf=1.0, pre=0.0, H1=100.0, ydf=0.6, Wf=2000.0, g_hi=0.15, g_lo=0.15, qf=400.0, pmaxf=0.05, pre_gap=1.0, ydf1=0.6, g1=5.0, f1=0.6, a1=100.0, nb1=0.0, gs=1.0, p1t=1.0, m1=1.0, zd=1.0, pfl=0.0005)\n    SQ2 = math.sqrt(2.0)\n    SQ2PI = math.sqrt(2.0 * math.pi)\n\n    def cdf(x):\n        return 0.5 * (1.0 + math.erf(x / SQ2))\n\n    def pdf(x):\n        return math.exp(-0.5 * x * x) / SQ2PI\n\n    def inv(p):\n        p = min(max(p, 1e-09), 1 - 1e-09)\n        t = math.sqrt(-2.0 * math.log(min(p, 1 - p)))\n        x = t - (2.515517 + 0.802853 * t + 0.010328 * t * t) / (1 + 1.432788 * t + 0.189269 * t * t + 0.001308 * t ** 3)\n        x = -x if p < 0.5 else x\n        for _ in range(2):\n            d = pdf(x)\n            if d < 1e-12:\n                break\n            x -= (cdf(x) - p) / d\n        return x\n\n    def lpm(k):\n        return pdf(k) + k * cdf(k)\n\n    def fl(q):\n        return math.floor(q * 100 + 1e-09) / 100\n    NODES = [(-2.2, 0.06), (-1.3, 0.17), (-0.6, 0.27), (0.6, 0.27), (1.3, 0.17), (2.2, 0.06)]\n    PROBE = 0.01\n    return (P, cdf, pdf, inv, lpm, fl, NODES, PROBE)\n\ndef _spread3():\n    P = dict(lam_r=0.25, m=5.0, sig_n=1.2, lam_j=0.0019, sig_j=0.35, sig=0.02, qmax=3000.0, rmin=2, kA=0.7, kL=0.15, pL=0.05, ammo=1.0, ydem=0.4, W=200.0, fy=0.6, ammo_q=60.0, ammo_pmax=0.05, ammo_maxpay=0.02, fb=0.9, fu=0.7, xu=0.1, sticky=1.0, min_ahead=2.0, keep_hi=1.5, keep_lo=0.7, Hu=300.0, bins=8.0, filt=1.0, uni=0.01, jumpinfo=1.0, dmin=0.0, kLb=0.08, kLf=0.08, pinf=1.0, pre=0.0, H1=100.0, ydf=0.6, Wf=2000.0, g_hi=0.15, g_lo=0.15, qf=400.0, pmaxf=0.05, pre_gap=1.0, ydf1=0.6, g1=5.0, f1=0.6, a1=100.0, nb1=0.0, gs=1.0, p1t=1.0, m1=1.0, zd=1.0, pfl=0.0005)\n    SQ2 = math.sqrt(2.0)\n    SQ2PI = math.sqrt(2.0 * math.pi)\n\n    def cdf(x):\n        return 0.5 * (1.0 + math.erf(x / SQ2))\n\n    def pdf(x):\n        return math.exp(-0.5 * x * x) / SQ2PI\n\n    def inv(p):\n        p = min(max(p, 1e-09), 1 - 1e-09)\n        t = math.sqrt(-2.0 * math.log(min(p, 1 - p)))\n        x = t - (2.515517 + 0.802853 * t + 0.010328 * t * t) / (1 + 1.432788 * t + 0.189269 * t * t + 0.001308 * t ** 3)\n        x = -x if p < 0.5 else x\n        for _ in range(2):\n            d = pdf(x)\n            if d < 1e-12:\n                break\n            x -= (cdf(x) - p) / d\n        return x\n\n    def lpm(k):\n        return pdf(k) + k * cdf(k)\n\n    def fl(q):\n        return math.floor(q * 100 + 1e-09) / 100\n    NODES = [(-2.2, 0.06), (-1.3, 0.17), (-0.6, 0.27), (0.6, 0.27), (1.3, 0.17), (2.2, 0.06)]\n    PROBE = 0.01\n    return (P, cdf, pdf, inv, lpm, fl, NODES, PROBE)\n\ndef _spread4():\n    P = dict(lam_r=0.25, m=5.0, sig_n=1.2, lam_j=0.0019, sig_j=0.35, sig=0.02, qmax=3000.0, rmin=2, kA=0.7, kL=0.15, pL=0.05, ammo=1.0, ydem=0.4, W=200.0, fy=0.6, ammo_q=60.0, ammo_pmax=0.05, ammo_maxpay=0.02, fb=0.9, fu=0.7, xu=0.1, sticky=1.0, min_ahead=2.0, keep_hi=1.5, keep_lo=0.7, Hu=300.0, bins=8.0, filt=1.0, uni=0.01, jumpinfo=1.0, dmin=0.0, kLb=0.08, kLf=0.08, pinf=1.0, pre=0.0, H1=100.0, ydf=0.6, Wf=2000.0, g_hi=0.15, g_lo=0.15, qf=400.0, pmaxf=0.05, pre_gap=1.0, ydf1=0.6, g1=5.0, f1=0.6, a1=100.0, nb1=0.0, gs=1.0, p1t=1.0, m1=1.0, zd=1.0, pfl=0.0005)\n    SQ2 = math.sqrt(2.0)\n    SQ2PI = math.sqrt(2.0 * math.pi)\n\n    def cdf(x):\n        return 0.5 * (1.0 + math.erf(x / SQ2))\n\n    def pdf(x):\n        return math.exp(-0.5 * x * x) / SQ2PI\n\n    def inv(p):\n        p = min(max(p, 1e-09), 1 - 1e-09)\n        t = math.sqrt(-2.0 * math.log(min(p, 1 - p)))\n        x = t - (2.515517 + 0.802853 * t + 0.010328 * t * t) / (1 + 1.432788 * t + 0.189269 * t * t + 0.001308 * t ** 3)\n        x = -x if p < 0.5 else x\n        for _ in range(2):\n            d = pdf(x)\n            if d < 1e-12:\n                break\n            x -= (cdf(x) - p) / d\n        return x\n\n    def lpm(k):\n        return pdf(k) + k * cdf(k)\n\n    def fl(q):\n        return math.floor(q * 100 + 1e-09) / 100\n    NODES = [(-2.2, 0.06), (-1.3, 0.17), (-0.6, 0.27), (0.6, 0.27), (1.3, 0.17), (2.2, 0.06)]\n    PROBE = 0.01\n    return (P, cdf, pdf, inv, lpm, fl, NODES, PROBE)\n\nclass Strategy(BaseStrategy):\n\n    def __init__(self):\n        self.n = 0\n        self.ahead = set()\n        self.res = {}\n        self.bc = None\n        self.bw = None\n        self.st = 0.5\n        self.pcb = self.pca = None\n        self.pb = set()\n        self.pa = set()\n        self.tb = 0\n        self.s = None\n        self.flow_notional = 0.0\n        self.flow_exposure = 0\n        self.last_ask_tick = None\n        self.last_quote_exposed = False\n        self.last_flow_ca = None\n        self.last_flow_cap = 0.0\n        self.last_flow_correction = 1.0\n        self.params = None\n\n    def _oid(self, tag):\n        self.n += 1\n        return tag + str(self.n)\n\n    def on_step(self, state):\n        H = max(1, state.steps_remaining)\n        cb = state.competitor_best_bid_ticks or 0\n        ca = state.competitor_best_ask_ticks or 100\n        initializing = self.s is None\n        if initializing:\n            self.s = max(1, (ca - cb + 1) // 2)\n            if self.s == 1:\n                self._scope = _spread1()\n            elif self.s == 2:\n                self._scope = _spread2()\n            elif self.s == 3:\n                self._scope = _spread3()\n            elif self.s == 4:\n                self._scope = _spread4()\n            self.params = self._scope[0].copy()\n        if self.s == 1:\n            _unused, cdf, pdf, inv, lpm, fl, NODES, PROBE, F_AH, F_FL, F_QB, F_LK, F_SB, FLOW_CAPS, FLOW_GRID, FLOW_PRIORS = self._scope\n        elif self.s == 2:\n            _unused, cdf, pdf, inv, lpm, fl, NODES, PROBE = self._scope\n        elif self.s == 3:\n            _unused, cdf, pdf, inv, lpm, fl, NODES, PROBE = self._scope\n        elif self.s == 4:\n            _unused, cdf, pdf, inv, lpm, fl, NODES, PROBE = self._scope\n        if initializing:\n            if self.s == 1:\n                self.fl_obs = ()\n                self.fl_scores = FLOW_PRIORS.copy()\n                self.fl_bins = [0] * len(FLOW_CAPS)\n                self.fl_rate = 0.568734\n                self.fl_r = 0.1265\n                self.fl_m = 4.488\n                self.fl_buy_sum = self.fl_sell_sum = 0.0\n                self.fl_buy_exp = self.fl_sell_exp = 0.0\n                self.fl_exp = 0\n                self.fl_dirty = False\n                self.fl_ahead = set()\n                self.fl_safe_n = 0\n                self.fl_sbins = [0] * len(FLOW_CAPS)\n            elif self.s == 2:\n                self.params.update(dict(flow_prior=200, flow_level=0.6, flow_strength=1.0, flow_safety=2.0, flow_exposure_min=5.0))\n                self.params.update({'kLf': 0.16})\n            elif self.s == 4:\n                self.f4_exposure = [0, 0]\n                self.f4_events = [0, 0]\n                self.f4_weights = [[0.0] * 9, [0.0] * 9]\n                self.f4_means = [2.64 + i * (6.336 - 2.64) / 8 for i in range(9)]\n                self.f4_mu = [math.log(m) - 0.72 + 0.065 for m in self.f4_means]\n                self.f4_last = [None, None]\n                self.f4_rate = 0.1265\n                self.f4_mean = 4.488\n                self.f4_flow = self.f4_rate * self.f4_mean\n                self.f4_extreme = inv(1 - 1e-06)\n            if self.s == 1:\n                self.params.update({'dmin': 0.3, 'pfl': 1e-06})\n            if self.s == 3:\n                self.params.update({'flow_prior': 200, 'flow_level': 0.6, 'flow_strength': 1.0, 'flow_safety': 2.0, 'flow_exposure_min': 5.0})\n        P = self.params\n        if self.s == 1:\n            s1 = self.s == 1\n            AH = s1 and F_AH\n            FL = s1 and F_FL\n            QB = s1 and F_QB\n            LK = s1 and F_LK\n            SB = s1 and F_SB\n        elif self.s == 2:\n            if self.last_quote_exposed and ca <= self.last_flow_ca + 1:\n                self.flow_exposure += 1\n                self.flow_notional += min(self.last_flow_cap, state.sell_filled_quantity * self.last_ask_tick / 100.0) * self.last_flow_correction\n        elif self.s == 3:\n            if self.last_quote_exposed and ca <= self.last_flow_ca + 1:\n                self.flow_exposure += 1\n                self.flow_notional += min(self.last_flow_cap, state.sell_filled_quantity * self.last_ask_tick / 100.0) * self.last_flow_correction\n        elif self.s == 4:\n            for side, filled, bound in ((0, state.sell_filled_quantity, ca), (1, state.buy_filled_quantity, cb)):\n                last = self.f4_last[side]\n                if last is None:\n                    continue\n                tick, conv, cap, old_bound, ids = last\n                if side == 0 and bound > old_bound + 1 or (side == 1 and bound < old_bound - 1):\n                    continue\n                remaining = sum((o.remaining_quantity for o in state.own_orders if o.order_id in ids))\n                value = max(0.0, cap - remaining * conv)\n                self.f4_exposure[side] += 1\n                if value > 0.01:\n                    self.f4_events[side] += 1\n                    censored = remaining < 0.011\n                    logv = math.log(max(value, 0.01))\n                    weights = self.f4_weights[side]\n                    for i, mu4 in enumerate(self.f4_mu):\n                        z4 = (logv - mu4) / 1.2\n                        weights[i] += math.log(max(1e-12, 1.0 - cdf(z4))) if censored else -0.5 * z4 * z4\n            if state.step % 25 == 0:\n                exposure = sum(self.f4_exposure)\n                events = sum(self.f4_events)\n                event_probability = (events + 80.0 * (1.0 - math.exp(-0.1265))) / (exposure + 80.0)\n                self.f4_rate = max(0.077, min(0.176, -math.log(max(1e-06, 1.0 - event_probability))))\n                weights = [a + b for a, b in zip(*self.f4_weights)]\n                peak = max(weights)\n                weights = [math.exp(w - peak) for w in weights]\n                self.f4_mean = sum((m * w for m, w in zip(self.f4_means, weights))) / sum(weights)\n                self.f4_flow = self.f4_rate * self.f4_mean\n        lo, hi = (cb, ca)\n        for o in state.own_orders:\n            if o.side is Side.BUY:\n                lo = max(lo, o.price_ticks)\n            else:\n                hi = min(hi, o.price_ticks)\n        if P['pinf'] > 0:\n            sb = {o.price_ticks for o in state.own_orders if o.side is Side.BUY and o.remaining_quantity <= PROBE + 1e-09}\n            sa = {o.price_ticks for o in state.own_orders if o.side is Side.SELL and o.remaining_quantity <= PROBE + 1e-09}\n            ea = self.pa - sa\n            eb = self.pb - sb\n            if sa and ea:\n                lo = max(lo, min(max(ea), hi))\n            if eb and (sb or min(eb) <= P['p1t']):\n                hi = min(hi, max(min(eb), lo))\n        if P['jumpinfo'] > 0 and self.pcb is not None:\n            if ca > self.pca + 1:\n                lo = max(lo, ca - 1)\n            if cb < self.pcb - 1:\n                hi = min(hi, cb + 1)\n        self.pcb, self.pca = (cb, ca)\n        if lo > hi:\n            lo, hi = (hi, lo)\n        wid = max(hi - lo, 1e-06)\n        nb = max(2, min(48, int(round(wid * P['bins']))))\n        cs = [lo + (i + 0.5) * wid / nb for i in range(nb)]\n        if self.bc is None or P['filt'] <= 0:\n            ws = [1.0 / nb] * nb\n        else:\n            sg = max(self.st, 0.6 * wid / nb)\n            k = -0.5 / (sg * sg)\n            ws = []\n            uni = P['uni'] * sg\n            if self.s == 1:\n                prior = tuple(zip(self.bc, self.bw))\n                exp = math.exp\n                for c in cs:\n                    t = uni\n                    for ci, wi in prior:\n                        d = c - ci\n                        d2 = d * d * k\n                        if d2 > -12.5:\n                            t += wi * exp(d2)\n                    ws.append(t)\n            elif self.s == 2:\n                for c in cs:\n                    t = uni\n                    for ci, wi in zip(self.bc, self.bw):\n                        d = c - ci\n                        d2 = d * d * k\n                        if d2 > -12.5:\n                            t += wi * math.exp(d2)\n                    ws.append(t)\n            elif self.s == 3:\n                for c in cs:\n                    t = uni\n                    for ci, wi in zip(self.bc, self.bw):\n                        d = c - ci\n                        d2 = d * d * k\n                        if d2 > -12.5:\n                            t += wi * math.exp(d2)\n                    ws.append(t)\n            elif self.s == 4:\n                exp = math.exp\n                if self.bc == cs and 1.0 <= wid <= 6.0 and (nb == 8 * wid):\n                    kernel = []\n                    c0 = cs[0]\n                    for ci in self.bc:\n                        d = c0 - ci\n                        d2 = d * d * k\n                        kernel.append(exp(d2) if d2 > -12.5 else 0.0)\n                    kernel = kernel[:0:-1] + kernel\n                    for i in range(nb):\n                        t = uni\n                        start = nb - 1 - i\n                        for wi, e in zip(self.bw, kernel[start:start + nb]):\n                            if e:\n                                t += wi * e\n                        ws.append(t)\n                else:\n                    previous = tuple(zip(self.bc, self.bw))\n                    for c in cs:\n                        t = uni\n                        for ci, wi in previous:\n                            d = c - ci\n                            d2 = d * d * k\n                            if d2 > -12.5:\n                                t += wi * exp(d2)\n                        ws.append(t)\n            tot = sum(ws)\n            ws = [w / tot for w in ws]\n        self.bc, self.bw = (cs, ws)\n        mean_t = sum((c * w for c, w in zip(cs, ws)))\n        var_t = max(sum((c * c * w for c, w in zip(cs, ws))) - mean_t * mean_t, 0.0)\n        phat = min(max(mean_t / 100.0, 0.002), 0.998)\n        var = P['sig'] ** 2 + P['lam_j'] * P['sig_j'] ** 2\n        sd = math.sqrt(H * var)\n        self.tb = self.tb + 1 if hi <= 1 else 0\n        if self.tb > 0 and P['zd'] > 0:\n            phat = min(phat, max(P['pfl'], cdf(inv(0.01) - P['zd'] * 0.02 * math.sqrt(self.tb) / sd)))\n        z = inv(phat)\n        Z = z * sd\n        sp = pdf(z) / sd * P['sig']\n        self.st = sp * 100.0\n        if self.s == 1:\n            if FL:\n                remaining = {o.order_id: o.remaining_quantity for o in state.own_orders} if self.fl_obs else {}\n                for px, ci, buying, previous, tick in self.fl_obs:\n                    qty = max(0.0, sum((q - remaining.get(oid, 0.0) for oid, q in previous)))\n                    x = qty * px\n                    cap = FLOW_CAPS[ci]\n                    gap = tick / 100.0 - phat if buying else phat - tick / 100.0\n                    safe = gap > max(0.005, 2.0 * math.sqrt(var_t) / 100.0)\n                    if 0 < x < 0.03:\n                        continue\n                    if x >= cap:\n                        if safe:\n                            self.fl_sbins[ci] += 1\n                            self.fl_exp += 1\n                            self.fl_dirty = True\n                        continue\n                    if safe:\n                        self.fl_safe_n += 1\n                    else:\n                        self.fl_bins[ci] += 1\n                    self.fl_exp += 1\n                    self.fl_dirty = True\n                    if buying:\n                        self.fl_buy_exp += 1\n                    else:\n                        self.fl_sell_exp += 1\n                    if x > 0:\n                        lx = math.log(x)\n                        for i, (r, m, parts, norm, tails) in enumerate(FLOW_GRID):\n                            density = sum((w * pdf((lx - mu) / sg) / sg for mu, sg, w in parts))\n                            self.fl_scores[i] += math.log(max(density, 1e-100))\n                if state.step % 100 == 0 and (self.fl_dirty or state.step == 0):\n                    bins = [(i, n) for i, n in enumerate(self.fl_bins) if n]\n                    sbins = [(i, n) for i, n in enumerate(self.fl_sbins) if n]\n                    logs = [score - sum((n * g[3][i] for i, n in bins)) - g[0] * self.fl_safe_n + sum((n * g[4][i] for i, n in sbins)) for score, g in zip(self.fl_scores, FLOW_GRID)]\n                    mx = max(logs)\n                    weights = [math.exp(v - mx) for v in logs]\n                    den = sum(weights)\n                    self.fl_dirty = False\n                    self.fl_rate = sum((w * g[0] * g[1] for w, g in zip(weights, FLOW_GRID))) / den\n                    self.fl_r = sum((w * g[0] for w, g in zip(weights, FLOW_GRID))) / den\n                    self.fl_m = sum((w * g[1] for w, g in zip(weights, FLOW_GRID))) / den\n            s = math.sqrt(sp * sp + var_t / 10000.0 + 1e-08)\n        s = math.sqrt(sp * sp + var_t / 10000.0 + 1e-08)\n        sd1 = math.sqrt(max(1.0, H - 1.0) * var)\n        jp = [(cdf((Z + n * P['sig_j']) / sd1), w) for n, w in NODES]\n        lj = P['lam_j']\n\n        def AB(x):\n            k = (x - phat) / s\n            a = s * lpm(k)\n            b = a - (x - phat)\n            if self.s == 1:\n                ja = sum((w * max(0.0, x - p) for p, w in jp))\n                jb = sum((w * max(0.0, p - x) for p, w in jp))\n            elif self.s == 2:\n                ja = sum((w * max(0.0, x - p) for p, w in jp))\n                jb = sum((w * max(0.0, p - x) for p, w in jp))\n            elif self.s == 3:\n                ja = sum((w * max(0.0, x - p) for p, w in jp))\n                jb = sum((w * max(0.0, p - x) for p, w in jp))\n            elif self.s == 4:\n                ja = jb = 0.0\n                for p, w in jp:\n                    if x > p:\n                        ja += w * (x - p)\n                    else:\n                        jb += w * (p - x)\n            return ((1 - lj) * a + lj * ja, (1 - lj) * b + lj * jb)\n        if H == 1:\n\n            def AB(x):\n                return ((1 - phat) * x, phat * (1 - x))\n        rho = P['lam_r'] * 0.5\n        mu = math.log(P['m']) - 0.5 * P['sig_n'] ** 2\n        kA = P['kL'] if phat < P['pL'] else P['kA']\n        if self.s == 1:\n\n            def qsize(loss, gain, px, flow=False, cap=None):\n                loss *= kA\n                if gain <= 0:\n                    return 0.0\n                rr = 0.125 + 0.5 * (self.fl_r - 0.125) if flow and FL else rho\n                mm = math.log(5.0 + 0.5 * (self.fl_m - 5.0)) - 0.5 * P['sig_n'] ** 2 if flow and FL else mu\n                tail = loss / (rr * gain)\n                if tail >= 1.0:\n                    return 0.0\n                return min(cap if cap is not None else P['qmax'], math.exp(mm + P['sig_n'] * inv(1 - max(tail, 1e-06))) / px)\n        elif self.s == 2:\n\n            def qsize(loss, gain, px):\n                loss *= kA\n                if gain <= 0:\n                    return 0.0\n                tail = loss / (rho * gain)\n                if tail >= 1.0:\n                    return 0.0\n                return min(P['qmax'], math.exp(mu + P['sig_n'] * inv(1 - max(tail, 1e-06))) / px)\n        elif self.s == 3:\n\n            def qsize(loss, gain, px):\n                loss *= kA\n                if gain <= 0:\n                    return 0.0\n                tail = loss / (rho * gain)\n                if tail >= 1.0:\n                    return 0.0\n                return min(P['qmax'], math.exp(mu + P['sig_n'] * inv(1 - max(tail, 1e-06))) / px)\n        elif self.s == 4:\n\n            def qsize(loss, gain, px):\n                loss *= kA\n                if gain <= 0:\n                    return 0.0\n                tail = loss / (rho * gain)\n                if tail >= 1.0:\n                    return 0.0\n                if tail <= 1e-06:\n                    return min(P['qmax'], math.exp(mu + P['sig_n'] * self.f4_extreme) / px)\n                return min(P['qmax'], math.exp(mu + P['sig_n'] * inv(1 - max(tail, 1e-06))) / px)\n        ptk = phat * 100\n\n        def qbid(t):\n            if not 1 <= t <= 99:\n                return 0.0\n            if self.s == 4:\n                if phat * 100 - t < P['dmin']:\n                    return 0.0\n            a, b = AB(t / 100.0)\n            if phat * 100 - t < P['dmin']:\n                return 0.0\n            if P['nb1'] > 0 and self.s == 1 and (t == 1) and (ptk < 1.0):\n                return 0.0\n            if phat < P['pL']:\n                ytg = P['ydem'] * min(H, P['W']) / max(ca - 1, ptk + 1) * 100.0\n                a *= (P['kLb'] if state.yes_inventory < ytg else P['kLf']) / P['kL']\n            return qsize(a, b, max(phat, 0.05))\n\n        def qask(t):\n            if not 1 <= t <= 99:\n                return 0.0\n            if self.s == 4:\n                if t - phat * 100 < P['dmin']:\n                    return 0.0\n            a, b = AB(t / 100.0)\n            if t - phat * 100 < P['dmin']:\n                return 0.0\n            if self.s == 1:\n                return qsize(b, a, t / 100.0, flow=True, cap=15000 if AH and t == 2 and (phat < 0.01) else None)\n            elif self.s == 2:\n                return qsize(b, a, t / 100.0)\n            elif self.s == 3:\n                return qsize(b, a, t / 100.0)\n            elif self.s == 4:\n                if P['pL'] <= phat <= 0.95:\n                    b *= 1.4\n                tail = b * kA / max(self.f4_rate * a, 1e-30)\n                if a <= 0 or tail >= 1.0:\n                    return 0.0\n                return min(P['qmax'], math.exp(math.log(self.f4_mean) - 0.72 + 1.2 * (self.f4_extreme if tail <= 1e-06 else inv(1 - tail))) / (t / 100.0))\n                return qsize(b, a, t / 100.0)\n        bids = [o for o in state.own_orders if o.side is Side.BUY and o.remaining_quantity > PROBE + 1e-09]\n        asks = [o for o in state.own_orders if o.side is Side.SELL and o.remaining_quantity > PROBE + 1e-09]\n        sticky = P['sticky'] > 0\n        if self.s == 4:\n            ma_ask = 50.0 if self.s == 4 and phat < 0.05 else P['min_ahead']\n\n        def top(orders, comp, step):\n            if self.s == 1:\n                if sticky and sum((o.remaining_quantity for o in orders if o.price_ticks == comp and o.order_id in self.ahead)) >= (PROBE + 0.01 if QB and step == 1 else P['min_ahead']):\n                    return comp\n            elif self.s == 2:\n                if sticky and sum((o.remaining_quantity for o in orders if o.price_ticks == comp and o.order_id in self.ahead)) >= (P['min_ahead'] if self.s != 2 else max(P['min_ahead'], 400.0 / max(comp, 1))):\n                    return comp\n            elif self.s == 3:\n                threshold = max(P['min_ahead'], 20 * 100.0 / comp) if self.s == 3 and step == -1 and (1 <= comp <= 5) else P['min_ahead']\n                if sticky and sum((o.remaining_quantity for o in orders if o.price_ticks == comp and o.order_id in self.ahead)) >= threshold:\n                    return comp\n            elif self.s == 4:\n                if sticky and sum((o.remaining_quantity for o in orders if o.price_ticks == comp and o.order_id in self.ahead)) >= (ma_ask if step < 0 else P['min_ahead']):\n                    return comp\n            return comp + step\n        bid_t = top(bids, cb, 1)\n        ask_t = top(asks, ca, -1)\n        qb = qbid(bid_t)\n        if self.s == 2:\n            s2f = self.s == 2 and bid_t == cb and (qb > 0) and (cb / 100.0 < phat)\n        elif self.s == 4:\n            if phat < 0.05 and bid_t >= 2:\n                qb *= 0.5\n        qa = qask(ask_t)\n        if self.s == 1:\n            if ask_t == 2 and ask_t < ca and (phat < 0.01):\n                qa *= 5\n        Y = state.yes_inventory\n        if ask_t == 1 and H > P['H1'] and (P['pre'] > 0):\n            qa = qa if Y >= P['a1'] > 0 else 0.0\n        ptick = phat * 100\n        if self.s == 1:\n            flow_scale = max(0.4, min(1.9, 1.0 + 0.5 * (self.fl_rate / 0.568734 - 1))) if FL else 1.0\n        amt = 0\n        qam = 0.0\n        if P['ammo'] > 0 and ask_t >= 2 and (phat < max(P['ammo_pmax'], P['pmaxf'])):\n            wealth = state.cash + Y * phat\n            x = max(ask_t, ptick + 1) / 100.0\n            capw = P['fy'] * wealth / max(phat, 0.005)\n            if self.s == 1:\n                target = min(flow_scale * P['ydem'] * min(H, P['W']) / x, capw)\n                full = min(flow_scale * P['ydf'] * min(H, P['Wf']) / x, capw) if phat < P['pmaxf'] else 0.0\n            elif self.s == 2:\n                target = min(P['ydem'] * min(H, P['W']) / x, capw)\n                full = min(P['ydf'] * min(H, P['Wf']) / x, capw) if phat < P['pmaxf'] else 0.0\n            elif self.s == 3:\n                flow_scale = self.f4_flow / 0.6 if self.s == 4 else 1.0\n                target = min(flow_scale * P['ydem'] * min(H, P['W']) / x, capw)\n                target = min(target, qa)\n                full = min(flow_scale * P['ydf'] * min(H, P['Wf']) / x, capw) if phat < P['pmaxf'] else 0.0\n            elif self.s == 4:\n                flow_scale = self.f4_flow / 0.6 if self.s == 4 else 1.0\n                target = min(flow_scale * P['ydem'] * min(H, P['W']) / x, capw)\n                full = min(flow_scale * P['ydf'] * min(H, P['Wf']) / x, capw) if phat < P['pmaxf'] else 0.0\n            t = max(1, min(99, int(math.ceil(ptick + 1e-09))))\n            g = t - ptick\n            if Y < full and g <= P['g_hi'] and (bid_t <= t < ask_t):\n                amt, qam = (t, min(P['qf'], full - Y))\n            elif Y < target and phat < P['ammo_pmax'] and (bid_t <= t < ask_t) and (t / 100.0 - phat < P['ammo_maxpay']):\n                amt, qam = (t, min(P['ammo_q'], target - Y))\n            elif Y < full and t >= 2 and (1.0 - g <= P['g_lo']):\n                amt, qam = (t - 1, min(P['qf'], full - Y))\n        if P['pre'] > 0 and ca == 2 and (phat < 0.01) and (H > P['H1']) and (Y < P['pre']) and (not qam) and (1.0 - ptick < P['pre_gap']):\n            amt, qam = (1, min(P['ammo_q'], P['pre'] - Y))\n        q1 = 0.0\n        if P['ydf1'] > 0 and P['m1'] < ptick < P['g1'] + 1.0 and (amt != 1):\n            if self.s == 1:\n                stock_rate = flow_scale * P['ydf1']\n            elif self.s == 2:\n                stock_rate = P['ydf1']\n                flow = (self.flow_notional + P['flow_prior'] * P['flow_level']) / (P['flow_prior'] + self.flow_exposure)\n                scale = max(0.5, min(2.0, flow / P['flow_level']))\n                stock_rate *= 1.0 + P['flow_strength'] * (scale - 1.0)\n            elif self.s == 3:\n                stock_rate = P['ydf1']\n                flow = (self.flow_notional + P['flow_prior'] * P['flow_level']) / (P['flow_prior'] + self.flow_exposure)\n                scale = max(0.5, min(2.0, flow / P['flow_level']))\n                stock_rate *= 1.0 + P['flow_strength'] * (scale - 1.0)\n            elif self.s == 4:\n                stock_rate = P['ydf1']\n                stock_rate *= self.f4_flow / 0.6\n            q1 = max(0.0, stock_rate * min(H, P['Wf']) / (self.s / 100.0) - Y)\n        if 0.02 < phat < 0.1:\n            ct = max(2, min(99, int(math.floor(ptick))))\n            wealth = state.cash + Y * phat\n            if self.s == 1:\n                goal = min(flow_scale * qa, 0.3 * max(wealth, 0.0) / phat)\n            elif self.s == 2:\n                goal = min(1 * qa, 0.3 * max(wealth, 0.0) / phat)\n            elif self.s == 3:\n                goal = min(1 * qa, 0.3 * max(wealth, 0.0) / phat)\n            elif self.s == 4:\n                goal = min(1 * qa, 0.3 * max(wealth, 0.0) / phat)\n            if Y < goal and ct < ask_t:\n                amt, qam = (ct, min(3000.0, goal - Y))\n        if self.s == 1:\n            if SB and 2 <= amt <= 5:\n                amt, qam = (0, 0.0)\n        actions = []\n        free = state.free_cash - 2.0\n        keep_ask = 0.0\n        new_b = []\n        new_a = []\n\n        def cancel(o):\n            nonlocal free\n            actions.append(CancelOrder(o.order_id))\n            x = o.price_ticks / 100.0\n            if o.side is Side.BUY:\n                free += x * o.remaining_quantity\n            else:\n                free += (1 - x) * min(self.res.get(o.order_id, 0.0), o.remaining_quantity)\n            self.ahead.discard(o.order_id)\n            self.res.pop(o.order_id, None)\n        for o in state.own_orders:\n            if o.remaining_quantity <= PROBE + 1e-09:\n                cancel(o)\n        kept_ids = set()\n\n        def manage(orders, t, q, comp):\n            kept = 0.0\n            if self.s == 1:\n                banked = {}\n                bound_t, bound_q = (t, q)\n            elif self.s == 2:\n                buy = comp == cb\n                held = {}\n                for o in orders:\n                    x = o.price_ticks\n                    gain = ptk - x if buy else x - ptk\n                    if x == t and q > 0 and (kept + o.remaining_quantity <= max(q * P['keep_hi'], 1.0) or (x == comp and o.order_id in self.ahead and (ptk <= 10.0) and (gain >= 0.0))):\n                        kept += o.remaining_quantity\n                        kept_ids.add(o.order_id)\n                        continue\n                    if x == comp and x != t and (o.order_id in self.ahead) and (gain >= 1.0):\n                        if x not in held:\n                            held[x] = [0.0, qbid(x) if buy else qask(x)]\n                        h = held[x]\n                        if h[0] + o.remaining_quantity <= max(h[1], 1.0) and h[1] > 0:\n                            h[0] += o.remaining_quantity\n                            kept_ids.add(o.order_id)\n                            continue\n                    cancel(o)\n                return kept\n            for o in orders:\n                if self.s == 1:\n                    ah = o.order_id in self.ahead\n                    if AH and ah and (o.remaining_quantity >= P['min_ahead']) and (o.price_ticks != t):\n                        if o.side is Side.SELL and o.price_ticks > t or (o.side is Side.BUY and o.price_ticks < t):\n                            enough = bound_q > 0 and (o.remaining_quantity <= bound_q if o.side is Side.BUY else o.remaining_quantity * o.price_ticks <= min(bound_q, P['qmax']) * bound_t)\n                            if enough:\n                                kept_ids.add(o.order_id)\n                                continue\n                            if o.price_ticks == bound_t:\n                                capacity = bound_q\n                            else:\n                                capacity = qask(o.price_ticks) if o.side is Side.SELL else qbid(o.price_ticks)\n                                bound_t, bound_q = (o.price_ticks, capacity)\n                            if capacity > 0 and o.remaining_quantity <= max(capacity, 1.0):\n                                kept_ids.add(o.order_id)\n                                continue\n                    if QB and ah and (o.side is Side.BUY) and (o.price_ticks < t) and (banked.get(o.price_ticks, 0.0) + o.remaining_quantity <= P['keep_hi'] * qbid(o.price_ticks)):\n                        banked[o.price_ticks] = banked.get(o.price_ticks, 0.0) + o.remaining_quantity\n                        kept_ids.add(o.order_id)\n                        continue\n                    khi = 10.0 if AH and ah else P['keep_hi']\n                    if o.price_ticks == t and q > 0 and (kept + o.remaining_quantity <= max(q * khi, 1.0) or (s1 and ah and (o.side is Side.SELL) and (o.price_ticks <= 2)) or (LK and ah) or (QB and ah and (o.side is Side.BUY) and (o.price_ticks == comp))):\n                        kept += o.remaining_quantity\n                        kept_ids.add(o.order_id)\n                    else:\n                        cancel(o)\n                elif self.s == 2:\n                    if o.price_ticks == t and q > 0 and (kept + o.remaining_quantity <= max(q * P['keep_hi'], 1.0)):\n                        kept += o.remaining_quantity\n                        kept_ids.add(o.order_id)\n                    else:\n                        cancel(o)\n                elif self.s == 3:\n                    if o.price_ticks == t and q > 0 and (kept + o.remaining_quantity <= max(q * P['keep_hi'], 1.0)):\n                        kept += o.remaining_quantity\n                        kept_ids.add(o.order_id)\n                    else:\n                        cancel(o)\n                elif self.s == 4:\n                    if o.price_ticks == t and q > 0 and (kept + o.remaining_quantity <= max(q * (3.0 if self.s == 4 and o.side is Side.SELL and (o.order_id in self.ahead) and (o.price_ticks == comp) else P['keep_hi']), 1.0)):\n                        kept += o.remaining_quantity\n                        kept_ids.add(o.order_id)\n                    else:\n                        cancel(o)\n            return kept\n        if self.s == 1:\n            kb = manage(bids, bid_t, qb, cb)\n        elif self.s == 2:\n            if s2f and 1:\n                kb = 0.0\n                for o in bids:\n                    if o.price_ticks == bid_t and o.order_id in self.ahead:\n                        kb += o.remaining_quantity\n                        kept_ids.add(o.order_id)\n                    else:\n                        cancel(o)\n            elif 1 and bid_t == cb + 1:\n                qf = qbid(cb) if 1 else 1.0\n                fr = [o for o in bids if o.price_ticks == cb and o.order_id in self.ahead and (cb / 100.0 < phat - 0.0) and (qf > 0)]\n                for o in fr:\n                    kept_ids.add(o.order_id)\n                kb = manage([o for o in bids if o not in fr], bid_t, qb, cb)\n            else:\n                kb = manage(bids, bid_t, qb, cb)\n        elif self.s == 3:\n            kb = manage(bids, bid_t, qb, cb)\n        elif self.s == 4:\n            kb = manage(bids, bid_t, qb, cb)\n        ka = manage(asks, ask_t, qa, ca)\n        rc = []\n        rc_cov = 0.0\n        if self.s == 3:\n            rc_avail = Y - 0.1 - sum((o.remaining_quantity - min(self.res.get(o.order_id, 0.0), o.remaining_quantity) for o in asks if o.order_id in kept_ids))\n            for o in asks:\n                if rc_avail < 0.01:\n                    break\n                if o.order_id not in kept_ids or o.price_ticks >= ca:\n                    continue\n                rc_x = o.price_ticks / 100.0\n                rc_u = min(self.res.get(o.order_id, 0.0), o.remaining_quantity)\n                rc_c = fl(min(rc_u, rc_avail))\n                if rc_c < 0.01 or (1 - rc_x) * rc_c < 0.05 or free - (1 - P['fu']) * max(state.cash, 0.0) >= max(qb - kb, 0.0) * bid_t / 100.0 + qam * amt / 100.0 + max(qa - ka, 0.0) * (1 - ask_t / 100.0):\n                    continue\n                rc_ahead = o.order_id in self.ahead\n                cancel(o)\n                kept_ids.discard(o.order_id)\n                oid = self._oid('a')\n                rc.append(PlaceOrder(side=Side.SELL, price_ticks=o.price_ticks, quantity=o.remaining_quantity, client_order_id=oid))\n                self.res[oid] = max(0.0, round(rc_u - rc_c, 10))\n                free -= self.res[oid] * (1 - rc_x) + 1e-06\n                if rc_ahead:\n                    self.ahead.add(oid)\n                rc_avail -= rc_c\n                rc_cov += o.remaining_quantity - self.res[oid]\n        add_b = qb - kb if kb < qb * P['keep_lo'] and bid_t != cb else 0.0\n        add_a = qa - ka if ka < qa * P['keep_lo'] and ask_t != ca else 0.0\n        budget = P['fb'] * max(free, 0.0)\n        cost = add_b * bid_t / 100.0 + qam * amt / 100.0\n        if cost > budget:\n            f = budget / cost\n            add_b *= f\n            qam *= f\n            cost = budget\n        out = []\n        q1 = min(q1, P['f1'] * max(budget - cost, 0.0) * 100.0)\n        if q1 >= 0.01:\n            out.append(PlaceOrder(side=Side.BUY, price_ticks=1, quantity=fl(q1)))\n            free -= fl(q1) / 100.0 + 1e-06\n        if amt and qam >= 0.01:\n            q = fl(qam)\n            if self.s == 1:\n                if QB:\n                    oid = self._oid('m')\n                    out.append(PlaceOrder(side=Side.BUY, price_ticks=amt, quantity=q, client_order_id=oid))\n                    if amt > cb:\n                        self.ahead.add(oid)\n                else:\n                    out.append(PlaceOrder(side=Side.BUY, price_ticks=amt, quantity=q))\n            elif self.s == 2:\n                out.append(PlaceOrder(side=Side.BUY, price_ticks=amt, quantity=q))\n            elif self.s == 3:\n                out.append(PlaceOrder(side=Side.BUY, price_ticks=amt, quantity=q))\n            elif self.s == 4:\n                out.append(PlaceOrder(side=Side.BUY, price_ticks=amt, quantity=q))\n            free -= q * amt / 100.0 + 1e-06\n        if bid_t >= 1 and add_b >= 0.01:\n            q = fl(add_b)\n            if self.s == 4:\n                total_q = q\n                if ca <= 99 and bid_t > cb and (bid_t == ca - 4) and (q >= 4.0) and (q * bid_t / 100 >= 4 * P['m']):\n                    head = fl(q / 2)\n                    oid = self._oid('b')\n                    out.append(PlaceOrder(side=Side.BUY, price_ticks=bid_t, quantity=head, client_order_id=oid))\n                    self.ahead.add(oid)\n                    q = fl(q - head)\n            oid = self._oid('b')\n            out.append(PlaceOrder(side=Side.BUY, price_ticks=bid_t, quantity=q, client_order_id=oid))\n            if self.s == 1:\n                free -= q * bid_t / 100.0 + 1e-06\n            elif self.s == 2:\n                free -= q * bid_t / 100.0 + 1e-06\n            elif self.s == 3:\n                free -= q * bid_t / 100.0 + 1e-06\n            elif self.s == 4:\n                free -= total_q * bid_t / 100.0 + 1e-06\n            if bid_t > cb:\n                self.ahead.add(oid)\n        if ask_t <= 99 and add_a >= 0.01:\n            x = ask_t / 100.0\n            covk = sum((o.remaining_quantity - min(self.res.get(o.order_id, 0.0), o.remaining_quantity) for o in asks if o.order_id in kept_ids))\n            cov = max(0.0, Y - covk - rc_cov - 0.1)\n            unc = max(0.0, add_a - cov)\n            if unc > 0:\n                ub = max(0.0, free - (1 - P['fu']) * max(state.cash, 0.0)) if x >= P['xu'] else 0.0\n                if H < P['Hu'] and phat < 0.05:\n                    ub = max(0.0, free * (1 - H / P['Hu']))\n                unc = min(unc, ub / (1 - x))\n            q = fl(min(add_a, cov + unc))\n            if q >= 0.01:\n                oid = self._oid('a')\n                out.append(PlaceOrder(side=Side.SELL, price_ticks=ask_t, quantity=q, client_order_id=oid))\n                r = max(0.0, q - cov)\n                self.res[oid] = r\n                free -= r * (1 - x) + 1e-06\n                if ask_t < ca:\n                    self.ahead.add(oid)\n        f = int(math.floor(ptick + 1e-09))\n        r = max(int(P['rmin']), int(math.ceil(2.0 * s * 100)))\n        self.pb = set()\n        self.pa = set()\n        if free > 1.0:\n            for t in range(f, f + r + 1):\n                if cb < t < ca and 1 <= t <= 99:\n                    out.append(PlaceOrder(side=Side.BUY, price_ticks=t, quantity=PROBE))\n                    self.pb.add(t)\n            for t in range(f + 1 - r, f + 2):\n                if cb < t < ca and 1 <= t <= 99:\n                    out.append(PlaceOrder(side=Side.SELL, price_ticks=t, quantity=PROBE))\n                    self.pa.add(t)\n        if self.s == 1:\n            if FL:\n                if not kept_ids and (not any((o.quantity > PROBE for o in out))):\n                    self.fl_obs = ()\n                    self.fl_ahead.clear()\n                    return actions + out\n                for i, o in enumerate(out):\n                    if o.client_order_id is None and o.quantity > PROBE:\n                        out[i] = PlaceOrder(side=o.side, price_ticks=o.price_ticks, quantity=o.quantity, client_order_id=self._oid('f'))\n                live = []\n                oldids = {o.order_id for o in state.own_orders if o.order_id in kept_ids}\n                self.fl_ahead.intersection_update(oldids)\n                for o in state.own_orders:\n                    if o.order_id in kept_ids and o.remaining_quantity > PROBE:\n                        live.append((o.side, o.price_ticks, o.remaining_quantity, o.order_id))\n                for o in out:\n                    if o.quantity > PROBE:\n                        live.append((o.side, o.price_ticks, o.quantity, o.client_order_id))\n                        if o.side is Side.SELL and o.price_ticks < ca or (o.side is Side.BUY and o.price_ticks > cb):\n                            self.fl_ahead.add(o.client_order_id)\n                obs = []\n                for buying, side, comp in ((True, Side.SELL, ca), (False, Side.BUY, cb)):\n                    orders = [o for o in live if o[0] is side]\n                    if not orders:\n                        continue\n                    tick = min((o[1] for o in orders)) if buying else max((o[1] for o in orders))\n                    orders = [o for o in orders if o[1] == tick]\n                    if not all((o[3] in self.fl_ahead for o in orders)):\n                        continue\n                    if buying and tick > comp or (not buying and tick < comp):\n                        continue\n                    px = tick / 100.0 if buying else max(phat, 0.05)\n                    cap = sum((o[2] for o in orders)) * px\n                    if cap < 0.04:\n                        continue\n                    ci = 0\n                    while ci + 1 < len(FLOW_CAPS) and FLOW_CAPS[ci + 1] < cap - 0.01:\n                        ci += 1\n                    obs.append((px, ci, buying, [(o[3], o[2]) for o in orders], tick))\n                self.fl_obs = obs\n        elif self.s == 2:\n            self.last_ask_tick = ask_t\n            self.last_flow_ca = ca\n            exposed_qty = ka + sum((o.quantity for o in out if o.side is Side.SELL and o.price_ticks == ask_t and (o.quantity > PROBE)))\n            self.last_flow_cap = exposed_qty * ask_t / 100.0\n            self.last_quote_exposed = ask_t / 100.0 > phat + max(0.005, P['flow_safety'] * self.st / 100.0) and self.last_flow_cap >= P['flow_exposure_min']\n            if self.last_quote_exposed:\n                logcap = math.log(self.last_flow_cap)\n                mu_flow = math.log(P['m']) - 0.5 * P['sig_n'] ** 2\n                clipped = P['m'] * cdf((logcap - mu_flow - P['sig_n'] ** 2) / P['sig_n']) + self.last_flow_cap * (1.0 - cdf((logcap - mu_flow) / P['sig_n']))\n                self.last_flow_correction = min(3.0, P['m'] / max(clipped, 0.01))\n        elif self.s == 3:\n            self.last_ask_tick = ask_t\n            self.last_flow_ca = ca\n            exposed_qty = ka + sum((o.quantity for o in out if o.side is Side.SELL and o.price_ticks == ask_t and (o.quantity > PROBE)))\n            self.last_flow_cap = exposed_qty * ask_t / 100.0\n            self.last_quote_exposed = ask_t / 100.0 > phat + max(0.005, P['flow_safety'] * self.st / 100.0) and self.last_flow_cap >= P['flow_exposure_min']\n            if self.last_quote_exposed:\n                logcap = math.log(self.last_flow_cap)\n                mu_flow = math.log(P['m']) - 0.5 * P['sig_n'] ** 2\n                clipped = P['m'] * cdf((logcap - mu_flow - P['sig_n'] ** 2) / P['sig_n']) + self.last_flow_cap * (1.0 - cdf((logcap - mu_flow) / P['sig_n']))\n                self.last_flow_correction = min(3.0, P['m'] / max(clipped, 0.01))\n        elif self.s == 4:\n            self.f4_last = [None, None]\n            for side, tick, bound, conv, distance in ((0, ask_t, ca, ask_t / 100.0, ask_t / 100.0 - phat), (1, bid_t, cb, max(phat, 0.05), phat - bid_t / 100.0)):\n                if distance < max(0.01, 3.0 * self.st / 100.0):\n                    continue\n                if side == 0:\n                    if not (ask_t < ca or any((o.price_ticks == ask_t and o.order_id in self.ahead for o in asks))):\n                        continue\n                    orders = asks\n                    order_side = Side.SELL\n                else:\n                    if not (bid_t > cb or any((o.price_ticks == bid_t and o.order_id in self.ahead for o in bids))):\n                        continue\n                    if qam > 0 and amt >= bid_t or (q1 > 0 and bid_t <= 1):\n                        continue\n                    orders = bids\n                    order_side = Side.BUY\n                tracked = {o.order_id: o.remaining_quantity for o in orders if o.order_id in kept_ids and o.price_ticks == tick}\n                tracked.update({o.client_order_id: o.quantity for o in out if o.side is order_side and o.price_ticks == tick and (o.client_order_id is not None)})\n                cap = sum(tracked.values()) * conv\n                if cap >= 0.5:\n                    self.f4_last[side] = (tick, conv, cap, bound, tracked)\n        return actions + rc + out\n", "code_sha256": "958419fb66f7d42609e75c67dd4f143d435e31d3815f49ab2f107296720c3bab", "incumbent_code_sha256": "bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae", "target_spreads": [3], "tuning": {"seeds": [310000, 310199], "selected": "C2", "selection_rule": "higher overall tuning mean_diff; T only", "complete": true, "overall": {"n": 200, "sum_d": -1.7906260918999806, "sum_d2": 2.6336071230181277, "mean_diff": -0.008953130459499904, "se": 0.008109761185308898, "C_mean_edge": 85.15370003458251, "B_mean_edge": 85.16265316504199, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": -0.00895313045950001}, "s1": {"n": 47, "sum_d": 0.0, "sum_d2": 0.0, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "C_mean_edge": 30.59600304578298, "B_mean_edge": 30.59600304578298, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": 0.0}, "s2": {"n": 57, "sum_d": 0.0, "sum_d2": 0.0, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "C_mean_edge": 81.35713208259824, "B_mean_edge": 81.35713208259824, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": 0.0}, "s3": {"n": 53, "sum_d": -1.7906260918999806, "sum_d2": 2.6336071230181277, "mean_diff": -0.033785397960376995, "se": 0.030555512948051193, "C_mean_edge": 115.0331344057302, "B_mean_edge": 115.06691980369057, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": -0.0337853979603774}, "s4": {"n": 43, "sum_d": 0.0, "sum_d2": 0.0, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "C_mean_edge": 112.9910514314628, "B_mean_edge": 112.9910514314628, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": 0.0}, "nonzero_seeds": [{"seed": 310057, "d": -1.6130999998999869, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": -1.613099999900001}, {"seed": 310181, "d": -0.1775260919999937, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": -0.1775260920000008}], "label_mismatches": 0, "variants": {"C1": {"overall": {"n": 200, "sum_d": -3.9560759907001, "sum_d2": 9.370066489801879, "mean_diff": -0.0197803799535005, "se": 0.015279484885997627, "C_mean_edge": 85.1428727850885, "B_mean_edge": 85.16265316504199, "retail_diff": -0.002242976259499905, "arb_diff": -0.017537403694999693}, "s1": {"n": 47, "sum_d": 0.0, "sum_d2": 0.0, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "C_mean_edge": 30.59600304578298, "B_mean_edge": 30.59600304578298, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": 0.0}, "s2": {"n": 57, "sum_d": 0.0, "sum_d2": 0.0, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "C_mean_edge": 81.35713208259824, "B_mean_edge": 81.35713208259824, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": 0.0}, "s3": {"n": 53, "sum_d": -3.9560759907001, "sum_d2": 9.370066489801879, "mean_diff": -0.0746429432207566, "se": 0.05738234423953861, "C_mean_edge": 114.99227686046981, "B_mean_edge": 115.06691980369057, "retail_diff": -0.008464061356603414, "arb_diff": -0.06617888186792337}, "s4": {"n": 43, "sum_d": 0.0, "sum_d2": 0.0, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "C_mean_edge": 112.9910514314628, "B_mean_edge": 112.9910514314628, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": 0.0}}}}, "paired": {"seeds": [410000, 410499], "run_once": true, "overall": {"n": 500, "sum_d": 163.31138959329996, "sum_d2": 24505.3287948289, "mean_diff": 0.32662277918659993, "se": 0.31305583881470794, "C_mean_edge": 104.74037596733339, "B_mean_edge": 104.4137531881468, "retail_diff": 0.25087562325840007, "arb_diff": 0.07574715592879999}, "s1": {"n": 115, "sum_d": 0.0, "sum_d2": 0.0, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "C_mean_edge": 28.495154459731307, "B_mean_edge": 28.495154459731307, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": 0.0}, "s2": {"n": 116, "sum_d": 0.0, "sum_d2": 0.0, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "C_mean_edge": 97.76626247947758, "B_mean_edge": 97.76626247947758, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": 0.0}, "s3": {"n": 138, "sum_d": 163.31138959329996, "sum_d2": 24505.3287948289, "mean_diff": 1.1834158666181156, "se": 1.1339948545370986, "C_mean_edge": 129.5888672693565, "B_mean_edge": 128.4054514027384, "retail_diff": 0.9089696494869568, "arb_diff": 0.27444621713333334}, "s4": {"n": 131, "sum_d": 0.0, "sum_d2": 0.0, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "C_mean_edge": 151.67248160310686, "B_mean_edge": 151.67248160310686, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": 0.0}, "nonzero_seeds": [{"seed": 410114, "d": 0.022482404199990924, "retail_diff": 0.0, "arb_diff": 0.02248240419999803}, {"seed": 410140, "d": 5.584214699100016, "retail_diff": -0.0003995577000068806, "arb_diff": 5.584614256899997}, {"seed": 410147, "d": 1.0274831561000042, "retail_diff": -0.3259679145999712, "arb_diff": 1.353451070800002}, {"seed": 410285, "d": 0.23862018680000574, "retail_diff": 0.6529046160999883, "arb_diff": -0.4142844293000003}, {"seed": 410361, "d": 156.43858914709995, "retail_diff": 125.11127448540003, "arb_diff": 31.327314661800003}], "label_mismatches": 0}, "complete": true, "failures": {"missing_seeds": [], "failed_or_exception": []}, "seconds_per_simulation": {"first_10_tuning_pairs_B": 0.3263935804367065, "first_10_tuning_pairs_C": 0.32083494663238527, "tuning_total_sim_seconds": 206.6077902317047, "holdout_total_sim_seconds": 349.68978118896484}, "simulator_commit": "b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e", "reproduction": "Python 3.12.3; for each seed, cfg=sample_config(ChallengeConfig(),ParameterVariance(),seed=seed); SimulationEngine(cfg,factory,seed=seed).run() for B then C, fresh instance per run, serial with no workers or sandbox. Tuning and holdout were separate serial single-process runs. s = max(1,(ca-cb+1)//2) at the first on_step, compared with regime spread_ticks. C = B plus the three text edits: block after ka = manage(...), rc_cov in cov, and 'actions + rc + out' at the last return."}