{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"c27ce3f1-301c-41a9-99f0-2bea4abe719c","kind":"skill:research-report","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"1060fcd4eeced43b55729dce8bd7aee802a43b0996a484fe07b72286fa413ace","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","tools":[]},"key":"research_report","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"Keel prediction-market analysis 7717170c-5482-4a85-a429-56e1a1d185fc. Category: crypto. Data taken 2026-10-17T13:16:51.352Z from Polymarket order books.\nTask: find markets in the table whose price is wrong (mispriced) and recommend at most 8 trades for a bankroll of 25 USD (pUSD). Returning no trades is a valid answer.\nPrices are probabilities from 0 to 1. Columns: row|marketId|event|ends|question|outcome A/outcome B|A bid|A ask|B bid|B ask|last|24h volume $|liquidity $|$ at A ask+2c|min shares\nMarkets:\nm1|5742115|-|2026-10-17|Bitcoin Up or Down on October 17?|Up/Down|0.77|0.78|0.22|0.23|0.77|147516|38919|6772|5\nm2|5506691|-|2026-10-17|Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.03|0.036|0.964|0.97|0.031|80210|36474|332|5\nm3|5593519|-|2026-10-19|Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 12-18?|Yes/No|0.029|0.03|0.97|0.971|0.029|52362|49479|599|5\nm4|701496|-|2027-01-01|Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?|Yes/No|0.2|0.21|0.79|0.8|0.21|47763|74491|3959|5\nm5|5742123|-|2026-10-17|Ethereum Up or Down on October 17?|Up/Down|0.28|0.3|0.7|0.72|0.37|46701|32350|1397|5\nm6|5170740|-|2026-11-01|Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?|Yes/No|0.23|0.24|0.76|0.77|0.24|41160|67769|3054|5\nm7|5564853|-|2026-10-18|Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 18?|Yes/No|0.956|0.958|0.042|0.044|0.958|32989|38689|679|5\nm8|5506667|-|2026-10-17|Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.961|0.971|0.029|0.039|0.981|25232|25706|4533|5\nm9|5170741|-|2026-11-01|Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?|Yes/No|0.12|0.13|0.87|0.88|0.12|19780|56800|1456|5\nm10|5506668|-|2026-10-17|Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.95|0.96|0.04|0.05|0.95|18165|23156|5383|5\nm11|5506670|-|2026-10-17|Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.024|0.044|0.956|0.976|0.04|17887|22559|236|5\nm12|1163699|-|2027-01-01|Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?|Yes/No|0.053|0.058|0.942|0.947|0.054|17536|279908|11075|5\nm13|5610574|-|2026-10-19|Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 19?|Yes/No|0.66|0.67|0.33|0.34|0.67|16907|32632|2896|5\nm14|5794264|-|2026-10-18|Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.029|0.03|0.97|0.971|0.026|16697|23589|250|5\nm15|701495|-|2027-01-01|Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?|Yes/No|0.08|0.09|0.91|0.92|0.09|15647|102130|1411|5\nm16|5170734|-|2026-11-01|Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?|Yes/No|0.15|0.17|0.83|0.85|0.17|15357|56269|1036|5\nm17|5794238|-|2026-10-18|Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.021|0.031|0.969|0.979|0.024|15292|24352|248|5\nm18|5692175|-|2026-10-19|Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 12-18?|Yes/No|0.031|0.049|0.951|0.969|0.05|15272|39901|508|5\nm19|5170733|-|2026-11-01|Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?|Yes/No|0.08|0.09|0.91|0.92|0.1|13781|76975|5321|5\nm20|5610602|-|2026-10-19|Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 19?|Yes/No|0.05|0.06|0.94|0.95|0.07|13655|37542|488|5\nm21|5794256|-|2026-10-18|Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.37|0.38|0.62|0.63|0.38|13446|17747|2105|5\nm22|3387867|-|2027-01-01|Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?|Yes/No|0.16|0.17|0.83|0.84|0.16|11941|72175|731|5\nm23|1144471|-|2027-01-01|Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?|Yes/No|0.029|0.03|0.97|0.971|0.03|11546|89263|2028|5\nm24|5170739|-|2026-11-01|Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?|Yes/No|0.42|0.43|0.57|0.58|0.43|11442|61444|3418|5\nRules:\n- Use only markets from the table. marketId is the second column, copied exactly.\n- side YES buys outcome A at its ask; side NO buys outcome B at its ask.\n- fairPrice: your probability (0-1) that the side you buy wins. estimatedEdge = fairPrice - ask of that side. Recommend only when estimatedEdge >= 0.03 after the spread.\n- Look for: news or base rates the price ignores; related markets that contradict each other; multi-outcome events whose YES asks sum far from 1 (listed under Events).\n- recommendedShares: whole shares, cost = shares x ask. Size with quarter-Kelly, at most 20% of the bankroll per market and 60% in total, never below the market's min shares.\n- confidence: low, medium or high. reasoning: at most 300 characters, name the evidence.\nOutput: write exactly one file, artifacts/recommendations.json, containing only this JSON (UTF-8, no comments, no markdown):\n{\"analysisId\":\"7717170c-5482-4a85-a429-56e1a1d185fc\",\"recommendations\":[{\"marketId\":\"123\",\"question\":\"copied from the table\",\"tokenId\":\"\",\"side\":\"YES\",\"fairPrice\":0.55,\"recommendedShares\":100,\"estimatedEdge\":0.12,\"confidence\":\"medium\",\"reasoning\":\"short evidence\"}]}\nLeave tokenId empty: Keel fills it from its own snapshot.","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"c4d67e5fc0222ed0df5dbb7753f21cfabb9cf16bbf16a9b9fb8fc54f6340004a","previousHash":"57410f309ed1c173ce4c5875358fc3360fa31d14dd12bf8c551d273253777068","projectId":"c27ce3f1-301c-41a9-99f0-2bea4abe719c","publication":{"commit":"6486bd3a1490c276c3870a303dc9786babc1751d","deliveredAt":"2026-10-17T13:19:15.315Z","repoUrl":"https://github.com/Identity-md/research/blob/main/jobs/c27ce3f1-301c-41a9-99f0-2bea4abe719c/_identitymd/README.md"},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"daf010ecfb6037aa63df6103551e62206efa4e964f3ff13d23736789558dcd4c","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":75,"hash":"bb631b1375d373a7c969884595546872ed731c05d4575c6e95e4969d177c5de6","mediaType":"application/json","name":"recommendations","path":"artifacts/recommendations.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"f121f0a8f8340392","findings":[],"hash":"1060fcd4eeced43b55729dce8bd7aee802a43b0996a484fe07b72286fa413ace","nodeId":"17ec41ff-6268-4bb8-bbeb-11121d656880","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and validated [artifacts/recommendations.json](artifacts/recommendations.json) with no trades. No evidence established the required 3¢ edge at the snapshot time.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":80128,"inputTokens":18231,"model":null,"outputTokens":657,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":28574}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"1060fcd4eeced43b55729dce8bd7aee802a43b0996a484fe07b72286fa413ace","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+c3fba9eb"}]}