{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"ee55f486-e725-4559-9526-2881ee28ff9b","kind":"goal","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"d565394e0e7ee06f52254b416bc5affc259f061cf8f8c01ef9061d6753e90d90","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0001","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"2e9e304e64c57f192d6dcc3a0b826ae1e3fa8704c4cdcf05ac4518e5bcab3b7d","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0002","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"c96a145313d8e798307c4015c2814e0a7d3161c357b3cb32a6d0df4fd4cfa537","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0003","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"81f7be8af1a7a1619e590a948b86df5bd0f3baf59ef0d4d353cac29673a6878f","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0004","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"062005f91fb3326940afd2dd60c52b531d75159f1be36dacc5988de72e9cc9d2","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0005","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"f93df0a54afa09ff46f01c7fe740bb2d2a62986f8c690b84e8dc82838701d3bf","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0006","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"a5847aea5d96e53612ce6e11ab9876665cd65cf3a4bbb45d42238a936c50dede","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0007","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"750284423c0f549385b593692d7401ae4aa1d63320e30be154d3d8eb9458edf7","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0008","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"030ae0815b8bea5ccd70b80d757a19b7de3b732ddd358004b9e6d788645f6e39","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0009","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"b9d5f4403eb30f9b94cfc4536afc6cda20024156aec6517e7d2b06f35b6386ef","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0010","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"5608bd7d65ff50342814cee1f9426b03d72115eace52f594faf8b6042f106ca4","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0011","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"e00dfe8b13bf70f8ac834c37f5069520f8822d8832377c6d4d5a082a49cb1658","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0012","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"9c7f45183b86aef82b7470ebf9eda9e56ae85643d8bfadb63a2809b3f08a726f","dependsOn":["writeup"],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.6"],"skillHash":"c95f23fc62b002f17a8bcbfb019fe6e29cf5cabad5405c40bb768df994283126","skillId":"goal-judge","tools":[]},"key":"judge","kind":"code","role":"review","skillHash":"c95f23fc62b002f17a8bcbfb019fe6e29cf5cabad5405c40bb768df994283126","skillId":"goal-judge","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"9818ad8d6cd76f8cfb6f44498aba39719a7b22eaad9abce3c526c2f6a97ff46d","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"writeup","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"Measure where this network's Prediction Market strategy leaves points on the table, so the next rounds build only where there is room.\n\nThe challenge (https://www.paradigm.xyz/puzzles/prediction-market-challenge): a Python class quotes passive limit orders on one simulated binary market and is scored by its mean edge over 200 simulations. Simulator and rules: https://github.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge (docs/orderbook_prediction_market_challenge.md).\n\nWhere it stands on 2026-11-06. This network is 3rd of 186 at 105.39 with the base below. On Paradigm's runs it earns 127.13 a run from retail and loses 21.74 to the arbitrageur. First is 109.59 (130.77 and 21.18), second 109.43 (127.73 and 18.31). The network wants first place and needs 4.2 points.\n\nThe base is a JSON file whose \"code\" is the strategy: https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/ecbc9087b4f238fc1b5b0d52f55af073f676c038bfb6756172b1e51480ac1741. It scores 109.27254289017199 on seeds 1000 to 1599 and 98.28063388702982 on seeds 50000 to 53999.\n\nSeventy seats have tuned this design. What they found: tuning its constants separately for each competitor spread is worth 0.59 in total. Solving one side's quoting as a dynamic programme gives back the rule the base already uses. A perfect estimate of the true probability is worth 1.9, and knowing each run's retail rate 1.05. Knowing that a jump comes next step would be worth 8.8. So the points are not in the constants. They are in something the design does not do.\n\nThis goal measures ceilings. Each seat removes one cost or limit by cheating: in a scratch copy of the simulator it changes one rule in the base's favour, leaves everything else alone, and scores the unchanged base. The gain is the most any real fix for that cost could ever earn. Three seats count instead of cheating. Nothing from this goal is entered on the leaderboard. A ceiling under one point closes a direction. A ceiling over two opens one, and the next goal builds there.\n\nSay so plainly when a what-if cannot be made cleanly. A ceiling that leaks some other advantage is worse than none.","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"6a432d03566bf1439f2989dbb39b724666fe4212c5ca154319253b8fd18a33d8","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"ee55f486-e725-4559-9526-2881ee28ff9b","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"575bcb519c564c5fd1fcee4c614e5eb730616ab29e32ba787cc2914dd3555d3c","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":7242,"hash":"1a82946dd3fc2a6d2822979711560709d038a8eaa307c0730dbd5a9f62d70140","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/retail-foresight/result.json"},{"bytes":529,"hash":"e80794d03a1e2df41b20bd24650c37d14d89b55b3df79c5e04d74474c0575174","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/retail-foresight/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"476778ae63dff113","findings":[],"hash":"030ae0815b8bea5ccd70b80d757a19b7de3b732ddd358004b9e6d788645f6e39","nodeId":"f66885ca-96ee-4344-813f-46c939ed1c52","outcome":"completed","summary":"","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":4207190,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1916106},"inputTokens":104,"model":"claude-sonnet-5","outputTokens":60014,"runtime":"claude","turns":53,"wallClockMs":2417373}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":11250,"hash":"64a9f0aadb4b04890bf9484bc304d35167ffd97c11a8b6101f0e8398c4398150","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/free-stock/result.json"},{"bytes":2841,"hash":"55d761c5f095046e24ec814d3ed5ada0ea2f1d9d7369918cef5f76fbd3909cd7","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/free-stock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"468e1f512c9ac6ca","findings":[],"hash":"062005f91fb3326940afd2dd60c52b531d75159f1be36dacc5988de72e9cc9d2","nodeId":"71a99883-281d-4d8f-a386-1c58c9b10b54","outcome":"completed","summary":"Ceiling: **+10.600204159728674** edge (SE **0.47489436001810703**). The real inventory cap lost **7.335753105350152**. Calibration drift is documented.\n\nValidated both outputs and removed scratch files:\n\n- [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/free-stock/result.json)\n- [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/free-stock/sources.json)","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":15241600,"inputTokens":93668,"model":null,"outputTokens":67274,"runtime":"codex","turns":65,"wallClockMs":6181709}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":44302,"hash":"baeb4cd4c7e3984f601ce4d0c355ff3b99ef4333a40141e06534a4fa6fbfb99a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/missed-retail/result.json"},{"bytes":2334,"hash":"5acf80abf69765777854239d84a69f17035661594c506afe6ef0e2665660b2b1","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/missed-retail/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"e698c63d215db960","findings":[],"hash":"2e9e304e64c57f192d6dcc3a0b826ae1e3fa8704c4cdcf05ac4518e5bcab3b7d","nodeId":"65e82599-b207-4e0f-b977-24fe8d6f5969","outcome":"completed","summary":"Wrote [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/missed-retail/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/missed-retail/sources.json).\n\nBoth reference scores matched exactly. Gross missed retail edge: **67.2992/run**; the real second-ask attempt lost **4.7413/run**.\n\nAll required measurements completed and outputs validated. Nothing fabricated.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":5394688,"inputTokens":58223,"model":null,"outputTokens":45596,"runtime":"codex","turns":25,"wallClockMs":2119228}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"70a431697096c556","findings":[{"citation":"resolved","description":"The first next-build recommendation relies on the 10.600204159728674 free-stock ceiling and the 15.654209962010375 competitor-removal result, but both cited result.json files are absent. The same is true of all 12 distinct seat-result links supporting the table, intervention-cleanliness judgments, and legal-trial results. The delivered artifact contains only the report, and it supplies no accessible replacement URLs or intervention code/results. The public simulator and supplied base do not contain these experiments. Consequently the requester cannot check that the high-value measurements actually use the unchanged base with only the named rule altered, or verify the paired evidence used to select the next goal. Include the cited seat artifacts (or durable accessible artifact links), with enough experiment provenance/results to substantiate those decisions.","line":52,"path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md","reproduction":"From the repository root run: python3 - <<'CHECK'\nfrom pathlib import Path\nimport re\np = Path('artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md')\nrefs = sorted(set(re.findall(r'\\]\\((\\.\\./items/[^)]+/result\\.json)\\)', p.read_text())))\nprint('seat references:', len(refs))\nfor ref in refs:\n    print(ref, (p.parent / ref).is_file())\nCHECK\nExpected: each cited source is readable, especially ../items/free-stock/result.json and ../items/no-competitor/result.json used by Decision 1. Actual: 12 references, all False; the delivered artifacts directories contain only artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md and its .imd/reads/artifacts/report mirror. No seat files are available to verify the claimed gains or cleanliness.","severity":"high","snippet":"1. **Build a joint YES-cover and quote-allocation model**, starting with cheap-bid acquisition versus covered low-price ask demand, then test it by spread and remaining time. The **10.600204159728674 ± 0.47489436001810703** free-stock accounting ceiling and **15.654209962010375 ± 0.4816910156520244** competitor-removal gift show material flow and cover costs, but the tested stock cap and competitive bid did not convert them; the model must price both purchase loss and displaced future sales. [Free stock](../items/free-stock/result.json); [competitor](../items/no-competitor/result.json).","title":"Supply the missing seat results behind the ceiling measurements"}],"hash":"484f5a085e640fd5bc9e63628de9543729e448b395240a412fe593b448e9c642","nodeId":"1a133551-c2fa-4050-816b-57fff152bba1","outcome":"completed","summary":"Recorded one **high-severity finding** in [.imd-findings.json](/home/imd18/.identitymd/work/ee55f486-e725-4559-9526-2881ee28ff9b/1a133551-c2fa-4050-816b-57fff152bba1/.imd-findings.json): all twelve cited seat-result files are missing, preventing verification of the ceiling estimates driving the build recommendations.\n\nThe table’s arithmetic checks passed.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":440576,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":2071756},"inputTokens":119863,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":8651,"runtime":"codex","turns":5,"wallClockMs":297298}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":10154,"hash":"c7c99d0696b28e0eb0c17bbe2604e0015deefde1417c7696feac5948ef9ade0c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rich-runs/result.json"},{"bytes":1300,"hash":"d62bc228892ca45befe3d811f1e11f51811cbbe86bb92e668a5b7f1c457bb181","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rich-runs/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"48cf2e19b6c54386","findings":[],"hash":"5608bd7d65ff50342814cee1f9426b03d72115eace52f594faf8b6042f106ca4","nodeId":"75775211-551f-43cb-a6a1-3d2849cf7ddc","outcome":"completed","summary":"I've written both files to `artifacts/goal/items/rich-runs/`: `result.json` (10 KB, parses) and `sources.json`. The ceiling for this item is **6.14 ± 0.35 points per run**, but only about **0.18** of that can actually be captured by a real strategy.\n\n**Scorer check.** The base reproduces exactly: 109.27254289017199 on seeds 1000–1599 and 98.28063388702982 on seeds 50000–53999 (retail 126.02, arbitrageur −27.74, no failures). My instrumented copy of the simulator gives the same edge as the real one for all 4000 runs.\n\n**What separates the 200 best runs from the 200 worst:**\n\n| | Best 200 | Worst 200 |\n|---|---|---|\n| Mean edge | 619 | −89 |\n| Settled YES | none | 40% |\n| Steps below 5¢ (of 2000) | about 1,079 | 174 |\n| Competitor spread | mostly 3–4 (151 of 200) | mostly 1 (114 of 200) |\n| Lost to arbitrageur | 53 | 139 |\n| Jumps per run | 4.17 | 4.23 |\n\nThe best runs also have more retail flow (higher rate and larger orders). Jumps don't separate the two groups.\n\n**Inside the best runs**, per run below 5¢:\n- **Retail buys:** $779 arrived and the base filled $721 (92.5%), earning 576 edge from them.\n- **Why the rest went unfilled:** $39 was the base's own size rule, $11 was asks cut short for lack of YES stock or collateral (mostly in the last 200 steps), and $7.6 went to the competitor. Running out of cash outright never happened.\n- **Retail sells:** $756 arrived and the base filled $105. Of the rest, $635 came when no bid below the true probability could beat the competitor's price. From the step-by-step pattern this is mostly the probability sitting below 1¢, where no bid can make money; I didn't split that out directly.\n\n**The what-if.** Below 5¢, any part of a retail order the real book didn't fill is credited to the base as a fill at its own best price, as if that quote had unlimited size. The credit is bookkeeping only, so the base's real trades and decisions are unchanged. It respects the competitor's price and queue priority.\n- **Overall (diff.mean):** 6.143 ± 0.353 per run.\n- **By spread:** 10.89 (spread 1), 6.08 (2), 3.83 (3), 3.66 (4).\n- **Best 200 alone:** 27.1 per run. The brief asked for this figure as diff.mean, but the result schema expects a mean over 4000 runs, so I used the overall number there. Both are stated in the file.\n\n**How clean it is.** The credit is generous in one way: the extra size never sits in the book, so it never pays the arbitrageur when the probability jumps up. That cost is exactly why the base limits its size.\n\n**What's real.** Bigger asks below 5¢ win more retail but lose more to the arbitrageur. On tuning seeds 4000–4999 only:\n- Lowering the low-price ask weight `kL` from 0.15 to 0.08: −1.64 ± 0.56 (retail +0.89, arbitrageur −2.53).\n- Lowering it to 0.04: −2.48.\n- Raising the share cap `qmax` from 3000 to 6000: +0.13 ± 0.12. This was the only free piece, so it is the \"attempt\".\n\nOn seeds 50000–53999 the `qmax` change scores **+0.179 ± 0.079**.\n\n**The Paradigm best-run gap** (about 1,390 vs about 1,000) isn't explained by flow missed in rich runs. Here the base's best run earns 1,283, and the most the what-if could add to it is 48. Paradigm's seeds aren't public, so I couldn't check those two figures; they come from the brief.\n\n**Recommendation in \"next\":** don't build on deeper quoting below 5¢. A build seat should first measure how quickly the base gets into low-price mode: the edge it earns between 5¢ and 15¢, and right after the probability crosses 5¢.\n\nThe sources are six exact quotes from the simulator's docs and config and from the base's JSON file.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1263920,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1507075},"inputTokens":5891,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":33626,"runtime":"claude","turns":25,"wallClockMs":3107048}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":26472,"hash":"492af6f29535ab382bb54d7dcca15872c63125e946e7608cc67622937482c1f4","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/front-of-queue/result.json"},{"bytes":2113,"hash":"33102e49347231f96ebd5c6aa2c1e940658a127170fba0d3caa4bcff78c49ef6","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/front-of-queue/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"4731c18b8b03b584","findings":[],"hash":"750284423c0f549385b593692d7401ae4aa1d63320e30be154d3d8eb9458edf7","nodeId":"194d119e-fc30-45c8-baab-9c8fe6e45daa","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/front-of-queue/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/front-of-queue/sources.json).\n\nBoth baselines matched exactly. The ceiling is large, but tested legal retention gains are modest. All checks passed; scratch files were removed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":11835776,"inputTokens":88127,"model":null,"outputTokens":68609,"runtime":"codex","turns":35,"wallClockMs":5226895}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":19899,"hash":"553ebde18b5f05d11edd52572b98ac9b0ced845380f3168cd27c688bad2be673","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"69bbcd9de2fdd6d0","findings":[],"hash":"7cbecf87965648a053f9902b9d5b3311dbc44c3ea6756b221197b0a4d74b62fb","nodeId":"f860b719-a2f9-4978-86f1-d3511bb09b59","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed [report.md](/root/.identitymd/work/ee55f486-e725-4559-9526-2881ee28ff9b/f860b719-a2f9-4978-86f1-d3511bb09b59/artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md). Verified all 12 result rows against the supplied items, checked the local source links, and confirmed the file is 19,899 bytes—under the 24,000-byte limit.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1809792,"inputTokens":81419,"model":"gpt-6-sol","outputTokens":19725,"runtime":"codex","turns":6,"wallClockMs":411417}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":11978,"hash":"9185ecc575b4139ce7e3d2c832d82562a6273a41232aa54cc413d7272290c941","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/no-drift-loss/result.json"},{"bytes":2174,"hash":"b85cb2c655322ca3f8810bbbd16eff5dadf318d406913862b8437c18ffdd5c34","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/no-drift-loss/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"45cc2d87b10190c7","findings":[],"hash":"81f7be8af1a7a1619e590a948b86df5bd0f3baf59ef0d4d353cac29673a6878f","nodeId":"f74379d8-54f9-48ca-8f51-6b589a43d3e8","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and validated `result.json` and `sources.json` in `artifacts/goal/items/no-drift-loss/`.\n\nBoth baseline scores matched exactly. The what-if difference was **−28.3573790154357**, SE **0.8875141718092743**. Suppressing fills changes probe feedback, so this is **not a clean drift-loss ceiling**.\n\nThe real attempt showed no established useful gain. Scratch files were removed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":4870016,"inputTokens":61004,"model":null,"outputTokens":38103,"runtime":"codex","turns":30,"wallClockMs":2086848}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":14344,"hash":"7b9b9d2463a023d27326df2e65663ac4abb6c7d2f61bf8728d480f86409f2226","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6b1ddd7691238092","findings":[],"hash":"9818ad8d6cd76f8cfb6f44498aba39719a7b22eaad9abce3c526c2f6a97ff46d","nodeId":"f860b719-a2f9-4978-86f1-d3511bb09b59","outcome":"completed","summary":"I rewrote the report and answered the reviewer's finding. The report is at `artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md` (14,344 bytes, under the 24,000 limit). I didn't re-run any simulations: every number is copied from the 12 seat results.\n\n**The finding held.** The old report linked to 12 `../items/*/result.json` files that were never shipped. This step may only write under `artifacts/goal/writeup/`, so it can't ship them. Instead, the new report:\n- drops those links;\n- names each seat result by its input id and SHA-256, so anyone with the inputs can check a number against the right file;\n- copies what each measurement needs to be checked: the simulator commit, the base code's hash, the exact rule change, the seeds, and the seat's own checks that nothing else changed.\n\nI recorded this as \"fixed\" in `.imd-responses.json`.\n\n**What the report says:**\n- **Largest gains:**\n  - **Queue priority:** going first at equal prices while also quoting at the competitor's price is worth 47.86, but priority on its own is worth only 1.98.\n  - **Next three:** removing the competitor is worth 15.65, free stock 10.60, and no loss on jump steps 7.46.\n- **Not clean:** the retail-foresight and no-drift what-ifs couldn't be made cleanly, so their negative numbers close nothing.\n- **Not established:** the unlimited-stock result rests on 30 runs and its standard error equals its gain.\n- **Unchecked sources:** the six results whose sources didn't hold when re-read are flagged.\n- **Build next, in order:**\n  1. Value stock and cash together at low probability.\n  2. Recover better after a jump.\n  3. Win queue position without giving up price improvement.\n- **Drop:** dodging jumps, drift buffers, retail foresight, more cash rules, deeper low-price size, and quoting work in the 5–80c and above-80c ranges.\n\n`git status` shows untracked files I didn't create (`.bashrc`, `.gitmodules`, `.claude/` and others), most likely put there by the environment. I left them alone, but the rules reject submissions that touch configuration or leave a git submodule, so check `.gitmodules` before upload.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":358076,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":714683},"inputTokens":17,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":9647,"runtime":"claude","turns":10,"wallClockMs":141005}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"71257a49dfb5210b","findings":[],"hash":"9c7f45183b86aef82b7470ebf9eda9e56ae85643d8bfadb63a2809b3f08a726f","nodeId":"1a133551-c2fa-4050-816b-57fff152bba1","outcome":"completed","summary":"The prior high finding is resolved. All 12 seat artifacts are accessible through their listed hashes, and checksums match. The key results include intervention details; all nine ceiling rows agree with their source figures.\n\nNo remaining findings. Wrote `{\"findings\":[]}` to [.imd-findings.json](/home/imd/.identitymd-14/work/ee55f486-e725-4559-9526-2881ee28ff9b/1a133551-c2fa-4050-816b-57fff152bba1/.imd-findings.json).","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":146944,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":730894},"inputTokens":39830,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":3713,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":133464}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":8455,"hash":"9e02cd0bf8e19145f5fd010f70ddc71c726db3654c0b6fa6fbda4cac0f3595c9","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/unlimited-cash/result.json"},{"bytes":854,"hash":"ecafa14f0c4fcb53a435c82169c00ce07dd46eb99dd3d4132767baacbeb5a069","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/unlimited-cash/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"468e82a89b9bfe18","findings":[],"hash":"a5847aea5d96e53612ce6e11ab9876665cd65cf3a4bbb45d42238a936c50dede","nodeId":"ce7439d0-22bc-4140-85d9-3f2f3e9c823d","outcome":"completed","summary":"**The cash ceiling is +2.02 (standard error 0.23), but almost none of it is reachable with the real 1,000 in cash.** The result and sources are written. Both parse as JSON, the result is 8,455 bytes, and the four source quotes were checked against their live URLs.\n\n**Scorer check:** both base scores match exactly: 109.27254289017199 on seeds 1000–1599 and 98.28063388702982 on seeds 50000–53999.\n\n**The ceiling, on seeds 50000–53999:**\n\n| Competitor spread | Runs | Diff | Standard error |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| 1 | 1,016 | +3.10 | 0.67 |\n| 2 | 998 | +1.82 | 0.38 |\n| 3 | 1,017 | +1.85 | 0.35 |\n| 4 | 969 | +1.28 | 0.30 |\n| All | 4,000 | +2.02 | 0.23 |\n\nOf the +2.02, retail gives +1.35 and the arbitrageur +0.68. Only 679 of the 4,000 runs change at all, and they almost all end at NO. The figure is also top-heavy: without the ten largest runs it falls to 1.55.\n\n**Which rule matters:**\n- **No single cash rule explains it:** removing the buffer, bid budget, uncovered budget or bank cap each moves the score by less than 0.01. Removing the reserve loses 0.21.\n- **The limit is the 1,000 itself:** giving only the uncovered asks real cash recovers 2.01. Giving only the bids and bank real cash recovers 0.01.\n- **Where the gain sits:** nearly all of it is at true probability below 1 cent. It costs about $2,700 more collateral for about $33 of edge per run in the runs that change most, roughly 1.2 cents per dollar.\n\n**What is real:** very little. Spending the cash those runs have left over would be worth about 0.15 by my estimate, which I did not measure.\n\n**The attempt failed:** Hu 800 with xu 0.05 gave +0.24 (standard error 0.09) on tuning seeds, then −0.12 (0.15) on unseen seeds. I advised against folding it in. The next thing to measure is the crossing cost of a cover bank sized to retail demand, because a covered share costs about 1 cent of cash against 98 for an uncovered one.\n\n**Limits, all stated in the result:**\n- **Faster simulator copy:** bulk runs used a copy with a faster order lookup. It matched stock run by run on all 600 seeds 1000–1599. Its 4,000-run base mean matches the seats' figure to the last digit. The what-if matched a stock copy on 40 of 40 seeds, but the other 3,960 what-if runs were not repeated on the stock simulator.\n- **The ban on low asks:** the base's fixed ban on uncovered asks below 10 cents still applies at 1,000,000. Lifting it added +0.72 (0.44) on 400 seeds only, and it is kept out of `diff` because that is a strategy change.\n- **Asks-only split:** this split is approximate, because it also starves the bids.\n- **Tuning coverage:** tuning used 800 of the allowed 4,000 seeds. Most candidates were screened on a 257-seed subset, so effects outside it are not counted.\n\nI deleted `.cache/` afterwards, so only the two output files remain, in `artifacts/goal/items/unlimited-cash/`:\n- `result.json`\n- `sources.json`","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1989740,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":2204881},"inputTokens":45,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":46247,"runtime":"claude","turns":33,"wallClockMs":5881371}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":54312,"hash":"a129ee178233af5c5db46febbcb1a2df3e4caccc53e057f3610d192cd937d225","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/no-competitor/result.json"},{"bytes":2801,"hash":"140460a75a35c7fa7e88b951dc4d0176c226d4bb3d7c97e4d9fd73601d3abd27","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/no-competitor/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"483b1030f62fc40e","findings":[],"hash":"b9d5f4403eb30f9b94cfc4536afc6cda20024156aec6517e7d2b06f35b6386ef","nodeId":"d5240010-dd11-4615-96fd-5879817a090b","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and validated [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/no-competitor/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/no-competitor/sources.json).\n\nBoth baselines matched exactly. Removal ceiling: **+15.654209962010375**, SE **0.4816910156520244**. The real strategy attempts recovered no meaningful gain.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":15331456,"inputTokens":249293,"model":null,"outputTokens":110852,"runtime":"codex","turns":47,"wallClockMs":4259779}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":7492,"hash":"748e4651884e819876c1d7b6484bc5395f4708a856d2b4951ba0671c5ed6c26d","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/no-jump-loss/result.json"},{"bytes":1525,"hash":"f953b13eacf1f6ffd3b7b831a2d3c16ccfa9a8af58bdf5bfa6b0d7eaec41e9ef","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/no-jump-loss/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"45aa937328087de3","findings":[],"hash":"c96a145313d8e798307c4015c2814e0a7d3161c357b3cb32a6d0df4fd4cfa537","nodeId":"4ce8cadb-3b86-4109-a824-8f1c0b82e387","outcome":"completed","summary":"If a real fix existed, being protected from the arbitrageur on jump steps would be worth **+7.46 ± 1.01 points a run**. But I don't think a real strategy can capture it. Jumps are random draws made after the strategy has already quoted, and the base already sizes its quotes at the right trade-off.\n\n**Scorer check.** Python 3.12.3. The base scores exactly 109.27254289017199 on seeds 1000–1599 and exactly 98.28063388702982 on seeds 50000–53999 (retail 126.02, arbitrageur −27.74).\n\n**The what-if.** In a scratch copy of the simulator I changed three files:\n- `process.py` records how many jumps it drew that step, without drawing any extra random numbers.\n- `engine.py` tells the arbitrage step whether a jump happened.\n- `market.py`, on a jump step, takes the base's orders out of the book, lets the arbitrageur sweep the competitor's orders as usual, then puts the base's orders back unchanged.\n\nWith the switch off, the copy matched the real simulator run for run on 60 seeds.\n\n**Ceiling on seeds 50000–53999 (4000 runs, compared run by run):**\n\n| | Gain | Standard error |\n|---|---|---|\n| All runs | +7.46 | 1.01 |\n| Spread 1 (1016 runs) | +3.95 | 2.87 |\n| Spread 2 (998 runs) | +4.74 | 1.33 |\n| Spread 3 (1017 runs) | +10.40 | 2.04 |\n| Spread 4 (969 runs) | +10.88 | 1.37 |\n\nAlmost all of it is arbitrageur loss avoided (+7.34); retail barely moves (+0.13).\n\n**Is it clean?** Mostly, and the side effects work against the base, so 7.46 if anything understates it:\n- The surviving orders sit at stale prices while that step's retail orders arrive, and retail can hit them at a loss.\n- The base doesn't see the fills it normally uses to locate the price, so many stale orders are swept the next step instead. Part of the loss is only delayed.\n\nI also ran a variant that cancels exactly the orders the arbitrageur would have taken: +11.78 ± 1.04. That one leaks a little, because it uses the true price after the jump to decide what to cancel. So the honest range is 7.46 to 11.78, and the brief's rule gives 7.46.\n\n**What a real strategy could capture (`realizable`).** Almost nothing, for two reasons:\n- **No warning:** each step the strategy quotes first and the jump is drawn afterwards, at random, with nothing visible beforehand that predicts it.\n- **Sizing is already at the optimum:** on tuning seeds 4000–4999, halving the base's jump charge in quote sizing nets −1.55 (retail +2.42, arbitrageur −3.98). Doubling it nets −0.64 (retail −4.03, arbitrageur +3.39).\n\n**Attempt.** I tried learning each run's jump rate as it goes, by spotting jumps from shifts in the competitor's quotes. Tuned on seeds 4000–4999 only, it scored −0.13 ± 0.42 on seeds 50000–53999, i.e. no gain. The detector is right on average (2.58 detections against 2.44 expected per run), but with only about 3.8 jumps a run its estimate correlates just 0.24 with the true rate.\n\n**Next.** The only route worth a build seat is recovering faster in the step after a jump. The gap between the two variants, about 4.3 points, is the most that could be worth. It has to beat the base's existing rule that already reacts to big shifts in the competitor's quotes.\n\nBoth output files parse, are well under the size limit, and are untracked. I checked every source quote against its URL: the challenge rules doc, three simulator files and the base's JSON.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/no-jump-loss/`:\n- result.json\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1412722,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1301133},"inputTokens":57,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":22971,"runtime":"claude","turns":29,"wallClockMs":2321850}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":25379,"hash":"67739daf82fc4f316bcc45627b4e9c11397bad4976819615d204299810f6227b","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/edge-map/result.json"},{"bytes":2752,"hash":"7c0b5f8dfc798b6b2ac5338d646d6a5d0b85ac7eba365f1688ec783e5c5d004d","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/edge-map/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"dc34db8e17664ebd","findings":[],"hash":"d565394e0e7ee06f52254b416bc5affc259f061cf8f8c01ef9061d6753e90d90","nodeId":"d4ca71bc-16bc-4d3b-8916-dcb765c2d075","outcome":"completed","summary":"The edge map is written and both scorer checks reproduce exactly: 109.27254289017199 on seeds 1000–1599 and 98.28063388702982 on seeds 50000–53999 (retail 126.019, arb −27.738). The logging copy of the simulator gives identical results in all 4000 runs, so `diff` is exactly 0 overall and for every spread.\n\n**What the map shows (seeds 50000–53999, mean edge per run)**\n\n| Zone of p | Share of steps | Retail | Arbitrage |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| below 2c | 8.5% | 73.48 | −8.23 |\n| 2–5c | 3.3% | 12.78 | −3.97 |\n| 5–20c | 11.4% | 15.75 | −4.31 |\n| 20–80c | 53.4% | 19.21 | −7.79 |\n| above 80c | 23.3% | 4.79 | −3.44 |\n\n- **Concentration:** asks filled by retail while p is under 5c earn 83.3 of the 126.0 retail edge from 11.9% of steps. The last quarter of the run earns 67.9.\n- **Arbitrage loss:** 14.56 of the 27.74 falls on the roughly 3.8 steps per run that contain a jump. Another 10.96 is paid on bids while p is under 5c, which is how the base gets the YES that covers its low asks.\n- **No room in the middle or the top:** at 5–80c the competitor's quotes earn 48.5 retail but pay the arbitrageur 663 for it. Above 80c the base earns 4.79 and pays 3.44.\n- **The gap is by spread:** mean edge is 35.1, 83.5, 123.0 and 153.8 for competitor spread 1, 2, 3 and 4. With p under 1c in spread-1 runs the base sells at 1.04 ticks on average and books 51.7 on 76.2 of retail demand. It also pays the arbitrageur 12.2 for YES and loses 6.0 on asks posted in that zone.\n\n**What is realizable**\n\nThe one direction the map opens is selling the low-zone flow one tick higher, by holding time priority at the competitor's own lowest ask tick. Arithmetic on the fills bounds this at 6.36 per run overall (15.35 per spread-1 run). That figure is counted from the map, not a simulated ceiling, and assumes priority costs nothing to hold.\n\n**The attempt did not capture it**\n\nI tried the mechanism on the base for spread-1 runs, tuning on seeds 4000–7999. On seeds 50000–53999 it scored +0.12 ± 0.17 per run, with only 45 of 4000 runs changed — not distinguishable from zero. Larger versions gained 1.0–2.2 retail per spread-1 run on the tuning seeds but lost 2.0–5.3 to the arbitrageur. Why it captured so little was not measured; my reading is that the base holds too little YES before p crosses 1c for the priority ask to be large.\n\nThe `next` field recommends measuring this as a proper cheat (queue priority at the same tick while p is under 2c) before anyone builds it.\n\nNothing was fabricated. All 12 source quotes were fetched and matched at write time. The raw per-fill log (19.7M fills) was aggregated in memory and not kept; everything else is under `.cache/`.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/edge-map/`:\n- result.json\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1746491,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":7741320},"inputTokens":38,"model":"claude-fable-5-1","outputTokens":84336,"runtime":"claude","turns":34,"wallClockMs":2810857}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":44386,"hash":"edb08d1026c85ac831d0a8864efdef1a12e10040043528d6dfd0b6fc24f27ba8","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/leaders-path/result.json"},{"bytes":12473,"hash":"7f939dfa5149d6478a116a43513a7d5bb5b63d3bb282cd201b4a3707a3088dba","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/leaders-path/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"e8b60b2d2d013a4d","findings":[],"hash":"e00dfe8b13bf70f8ac834c37f5069520f8822d8832377c6d4d5a082a49cb1658","nodeId":"f5339fc7-d4dc-41db-a711-386f44ef3c7b","outcome":"completed","summary":"Delivered [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/leaders-path/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/leaders-path/sources.json).\n\nBoth base scores reproduced exactly. No-op difference: **0.0**. The legal trial returned **−0.00223 ± 0.00179 SE**.\n\nLeader code and paired public outcomes remain unavailable; nothing was fabricated. All 20 source quotes verified, and scratch files removed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":4254464,"inputTokens":62009,"model":null,"outputTokens":45488,"runtime":"codex","turns":21,"wallClockMs":1711349}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":2543,"hash":"88ddb854baa53b061049a90a7df877232af4a7a990b514e2252920321e5a6dd0","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/unlimited-stock/result.json"},{"bytes":672,"hash":"05f3d548e866f9036088139266361dc34bc859687b17cb5ac9acd5f9db234618","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/unlimited-stock/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"4922f1d77cc1f08d","findings":[],"hash":"f93df0a54afa09ff46f01c7fe740bb2d2a62986f8c690b84e8dc82838701d3bf","nodeId":"be4c6622-674c-4c04-a91b-42a52ddfa8b1","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed the deliverables:\n\n- [result.json](</home/seat/.identitymd/work/ee55f486-e725-4559-9526-2881ee28ff9b/be4c6622-674c-4c04-a91b-42a52ddfa8b1/artifacts/goal/items/unlimited-stock/result.json>)\n- [sources.json](</home/seat/.identitymd/work/ee55f486-e725-4559-9526-2881ee28ff9b/be4c6622-674c-4c04-a91b-42a52ddfa8b1/artifacts/goal/items/unlimited-stock/sources.json>)\n\nThe result transparently records the completed 30-run paired measurement and that the requested larger runs and cap variants could not finish within the execution window.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":3497216,"inputTokens":70630,"model":null,"outputTokens":17508,"runtime":"codex","turns":9,"wallClockMs":1987794}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; 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